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mileslunn
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« on: September 13, 2017, 03:09:25 pm »

Looks like the discussion on this got taken down.  If put back up I will take this one down.  Anyways Ipsos just came out with another poll (their record isn't great so probably best to take with a grain of salt), but it has the results 39% PC, 32% Liberals, and 22% NDP.  Liberals lead in Northern Ontario (I thought NDP would be ahead but small sample probably) and in the 416, but PCs have a 12 point lead in the 905 belt and are ahead in Central, Eastern, and Southwestern Ontario.  It should be noted in the 2011 federal election the Conservatives also finished ahead in those regions.  http://globalnews.ca/news/3740366/majority-of-ontarians-want-a-change-in-government-in-2018-election-poll/?utm_source=%40globalnewsto&utm_medium=Twitter

I've noticed two interesting trends.  Amongst males, PCs have a massive lead, but amongst female voters a lot closer so seems to be a fairly wide gender gap.  Likewise amongst age, PCs are in third amongst millennials, only slightly ahead amongst 35-44, but it seems 45+ they have a strong lead flirting with the 50% mark so I think voter turnout could be key.  NDP and Liberals need a strong turnout amongst millennials whereas a low turnout could mean an even bigger swing due to their strength amongst older voters who always vote.  Forum is supposed to come out with a Toronto poll later this week while Mainstreet research with one later this month.

UPDATE:  Here are the crosstabs  https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/ontario-vote-2017-09-14  As mentioned large gender gap and also large age gap too.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2017, 12:09:55 pm by mileslunn »Logged

mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2017, 11:36:08 am »

Forum is out with a Toronto poll which is PC 38%, Liberals 30%, and NDP 22%.  While it's still 266 days away so a lot can happen those type of numbers would mean a PC landslide provincewide considering Toronto is generally more Liberal friendly than the rest of the province.  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2781/september-provincial-toronto-2017/
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2017, 09:58:52 pm »

The poll has the NDP at 23% not 22%. To put things in perspective in the 2014 election the Liberals won every single seat in Toronto with 49% of the vote, now they have collapsed to 30% and at that level they could be totally shellacked dropping seats to the PCs all over Etobicoke and North York and Scarborough while the NDP would likely win back a couple of seats in the downtown areas. The Liberals could be reduced to seats you can count on one hand in very very wealthy highly educated midtown ridings

My bad, but same idea.  Just for comparison in 2011 federally in Toronto it was 35% Liberals, 31% Conservatives, and 30% NDP, although the Ipsos poll for 416 is 42% Liberals to 34% PCs while 21% for the NDP so with the Liberal vote being spread fairly evenly a slight uptick could allow them to hold most, but if they remain this low, absolutely they could get obliterated and even the premier could lose her own seat.  The NDP should be able to win some downtown and if things really go well maybe some working class suburbs.  For the PCs, North York, Etobicoke, and Scarborough is likely where they would breakthrough and even the Ipsos poll would probably have them winning some there as they tend to be in the teens downtown so that would mean probably over 40% in many of the suburban parts.  The NDP can get as low as the high teens in Toronto and still win seats whereas PCs need to be above 30% in the city to win seats.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2017, 10:20:16 am »

Another Campaign research poll which is 38% PC 33% Liberals and 23% NDP so that would give using the simulator 60 seats PCs 43 seats Liberals and 18 seats NDP so PC Minority and possibly a Liberal-NDP coalition although very weak one.  Nonetheless this one oversamples the 416 and the numbers there seem quite high for the PCs compared to provincewide numbers as they show 35% Liberals, 36% PC and 23% NDP.  https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2017/09/13/Progressive-Conservatives-with-5-point-lead-on-Liberals-Andrea-Horwath-most-popular-party-leader
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2017, 07:46:42 pm »

Innovative research is out with a poll showing 40% PC, 35% Liberal and 18% NDP so closer the some of the others, but no real change from past months.  Interestingly enough it seems PC numbers are consistent with polls while Liberal and NDP seems to be where the discrepancy is.  http://innovativeresearch.ca/the-pcs-are-more-firmly-in-the-drivers-seat-this-year/#about  Mainstreet Research should come out with one later this week as well or early next week.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2017, 10:44:44 am »

Another Forum poll out, this one shows Tories well in the lead, NDP second, and Liberals third.  Only in the 416 are the Liberals competitive.  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2788/ontario-horserace-september-2017/  It seems a lot of variation between polls on where the Liberals and NDP are, although somewhat less for the PCs who seem to be close to 40% give or take a few percentage points.  I am guessing with Wynne moving leftwards the NDP and Liberals are fighting over the same voter pool so lots of soft voters while for the PCs less cross over thus why their numbers are more stable.  That being said as long as the PCs are over 40% it will be tough for either of the other party's to win.  Their main hope at this point is that either the PCs mess up badly, which they have been known to do, or the undecided voters break heavily for them as if you include undecided voters PCs are down in the 30s not 40s.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2017, 04:27:19 pm »

I definitely think Singh could help the NDP in Brampton, I guess the question is does the NDP surge enough to win outright or does it just rise enough to split the votes enough so the PCs come up the middle as the PCs have a solid core of around 30% in Brampton and any gains the NDP makes will likely come at the expense of the Liberals not PCs.  Federally though I think he could do quite well there.  Also Surrey is another place to watch where I think Singh could help the NDP provided the BC NDP's approval ratings don't tank badly.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2017, 03:06:53 pm »

Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2017, 03:12:25 pm »

That assumes most voters are aware of it. I think many just assume the Greens are a left wing environmentalist party even if untrue in Ontario. If he is not in the debate he will get very little scrutiny meaning he might get many votes who don't agree with his views.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2017, 03:18:25 pm »

I don't often consider candidates who receive less than 20% of the vote to be a "factor".  Admittedly, what each one of us considers to be "a factor" is a subjective thing.  My point is that Schreiner's positions lately have fallen more in line with the PC than they would with the ONDP and/or Liberal party.  And he holds different positions than the federal party, and very different than the BC Greens.  Schreiner is campaigning on lowering personal income taxes, wanting to privatize the soon-to-be-created CCBO, and has gotten into some trouble with Francophone communities in Ontario, as he advocates eliminating the French language school boards (he wants just 1, down from 4 current systems).  Hardly the picture of a "leftist" party, leader, or candidate.

Ah, but consider that once upon a time, Guelph was deemed to be a Red Tory stronghold--and also that in 2015, the federal Green candidate, Gord Miller, had been a two-time PC candidate in Northern Ontario in the 1990s and a "partisan" Mike Harris appointment as provincial Environmental Commissioner.

*That*, in all likelihood, is the sensibility Schreiner's aiming to tap.

The last time the Conservatives won this riding at either level was when it was Guelph-Wellington thus included much of the surrounding rural areas which is some of the strongest Tory turf in Ontario. If the old boundaries were used the PC's would have a much better chance than under the current. Never mind there was a time when not just PC's in Canada but also GOP in US and British Tories used to win university towns (Oxford and Cambridge were once solid Tory ridings whereas now they are lucky if they can get over a quarter of the vote in either) so it seems students being significantly more left wing is more recent even though they've always been more left wing but less monolithic than in the past. When I was in university between 2000 to 2005 plenty of students albeit a minority leaned right whereas now right wing students are a rarity.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2017, 06:27:47 pm »

In terms of the ridings with large universities this is how I see it.  Certainly in the US the Democrats tend to do considerably better than surrounding areas and often counties with large universities are liberal islands in a sea of red (GOP).  In the UK, constituencies with major universities saw the biggest jump in Labour support and in many of those Conservative support actually fell (In most of the UK, Conservative support went up, just less than Labour did), but in Canada seems less the case although Kingston and the Islands and Guelph both stayed Liberal in 2011 despite their poor showing nationally and in Ontario and despite the fact the surrounding rural ridings went massively Conservative.  In Toronto and Ottawa the student population is spread out over too many ridings so likely minimal impact although University-Rosedale should be an NDP-Liberal fight with PCs playing spoiler (if Rosedale goes Liberal that helps them whereas if it goes PC, not enough to win the riding but will help the NDP since it will hurt the Liberals more).  Likewise Thunder Bay will be do people vote on party (NDP) or candidate (Liberal) and Windsor should go NDP while NDP have the advantage in Sudbury.

McMaster University is in Hamilton West-Dundas-Ancaster.  Likely a PC-Liberal race with NDP if strong helping the PCs win.  Ted McMeekin is running here and he is quite locally popular as well as more favourable for the Liberals than old boundaries as the rural parts were transferred to Flamborough-Glanbrook which I expect to go PC.

Brock University - Interestingly enough it is located in Niagara Centre even though it is in St. Catherines which is mostly in the riding of St. Catherines.  Niagara Centre should stay NDP although if the PCs get around 45% and NDP stays stuck at 20% a PC pick up is possible but not likely.  St. Catherines will come down to do people vote on candidate (Liberal as Jim Bradley is well liked) or party (PC as this generally is slightly more PC than the province as a whole).

Waterloo and Wilfred Laurier - Both are in Waterloo which will probably stay NDP as Catherine Fife is well liked, but a Liberal pick up if they emerge as the progressive alternative to the PCs is possible while PC too if there are strong splits.

University of Guelph - Guelph leans Liberal, but possible although unlikely for an NDP win.  Greens could win since despite Schreiber being not too progressive it does seem in recent federal and provincial elections, people seem to like the idea of a Green seat so they often come close or win in their strongest.  A PC win also possible if you have really strong splits but unlike 1999 the riding is Guelph instead of Guelph-Wellington so without the rural portion where the PCs run up the numbers it will be tougher to win.  Also millennials tilt a lot more heavily in the progressive direction than do Generation X voters and in the 90s it was GenXers at university now it is millennials.

UWO - This is in London North Centre so if the Liberals win anything south of Kitchener (if things turn badly they might not win anything west of the Humber River) it would be this one.  NDP holds the two neighbouring ridings so no surprise if they pick this one up.  PCs also could if there are strong splits as usually their support is about 5-10% below what they are province wide so if at only 38%, then no they won't win this, but if at 44% then definitely possible.

Queens University - Kingston and the Islands used to go PC but that was back during the Red Tory era and hasn't since, so Liberals favoured.  NDP win possible but only if the Liberals implode and fall to third.  PC win unlikely, but they do have a former mayor which should add a few points so with a perfect split possible but not likely.  Also all the parts of Kingston north of the 401 are now in Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston also making it harder for a PC win as they tended to do better north of the 401 than south of it. 

That being said, I don't think either Wynne or Howarth has the same pull as say Trudeau, Corbyn, Sanders, or Obama amongst younger voters.  Also it's summer so the student impact might be less as many will be back home although the faculty will still be there and I expect most of them to go Liberal.  In addition turnout will probably be lower than last federal election which helps the PCs as well as usually in change elections it tends to be those angry at the government rather than happy who are more motivated to show up.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2017, 04:50:46 pm »

I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

Doubt it but you never know.  Certainly a lot of the social conservatives feel he is a flip flopper, but also to win in Ontario you have to be fairly moderate which Brown is trying to do.  There are some for whatever reason who believe you can run on an unabashedly right wing platform and win in Ontario which the last few campaigns have proven false.  Mike Harris was quite right although economically not socially, but that was the 90s and attitudes have shifted since then.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2017, 09:55:23 pm »

Rumours didn't involve doing anything to anyone, but having "competitions" with interns.

... that is appalling.

Honestly, though, I fear he'll get in on the 'throw the bums out' ticket.

He is a bachelor and I think in today's world as long as it was consensual few will really care.  Only if non-consensual would it matter and we would probably have heard about it by now.

As for him winning, the Liberals have been in power for 15 years, Wynne's approval rating is under 20% so there is a strong desire for change.  Also Ontario has a long history of alteration whereby which party is in power at Queens Park is the opposite as in Ottawa.  Last provincial election we still had a Conservative government federally whereas now we have a Liberal one.  The NDP could ride the desire for change, but they seem to be largely invisible as well as the PC's have a much stronger base so they start out before picking up any swing voters at a much higher level thus making their path to power easier.  While Brown is not exactly that strong, he has done a good job at staying away from the hard right stuff that has sank the party in past elections so he is definitely favoured to win but far from certain.  In addition the Liberals are running to the left on an NDP like platform ($15/hour minimum wage, free prescription drugs for under 25, free tuition for low income families, rent controls) so if you want change of players not policy then yes NDP is where you go, but want a change in both, then it is the PC's.  The only big difference is the NDP wants to buy back the shares sold for Hydro One, but even though almost 80% opposed the sale of Hydro One, buying it back is a fairly low priority never mind would probably drive the debt up too.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2017, 02:01:07 pm »

No doubt NDP and Liberals have differences but until you look into the details they seem similar or at least moving in the same direction.  I think the real danger is some on the left are so sick of the Liberals so they will vote NDP while others are so terrified of the Tories they will vote Liberal to keep the Tories out.  The PCs real advantage is so far at least they don't seem to be scaring away the Blue Liberals and Red Tories and when you have those two on side you have 40% meaning unless either the Liberals or NDP completely implode you have a PC government.  The NDP has a core base of 15% while PCs are around 30% so essentially if the Liberals implode you need over 2/3 to go NDP to push them ahead.  Certainly possible but not easy.  The one thing the NDP does have in their favour is a whole generation of Ontarioans either weren't born or too young to remember the Rae years at the same time those old enough to remember are more likely to vote.  While an NDP win is what they would like, I think the odds are fairly slim although to be fair Howarth is in a better position that Notley was 8 months before the Alberta election so surprises can happen.  The more realistic possibilities for the NDP are as follows:

1.  Liberals get reduced to a minority so the NDP holds the balance of power
2.  PCs win a majority, NDP comes in second meaning with no Trudeau like person in the wings waiting for the Liberals, the NDP will probably form government once people tire of the PCs.

A third possibility but actually I think would be bad for the NDP is the PCs win a minority.  There will be a lot of pressure for them to join up with the Liberals to stop the PCs, but considering how unpopular the Liberals are, this will just tie them to the Liberals and likely result in a PC landslide the following election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2017, 02:15:06 pm »

It's Forum, but looking at this Wynne is going to need a record comeback if this is true to win in 2018  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2795/sudbury-trial-october-2017/ .  The only two instances I can think of where a party was this far behind in the polls with just over 7 months to go and pulled off a victory was Alberta in 1993 and BC in 2013.  I've seen opposition parties further behind and win so for those on the NDP side that might be the one solace as the NDP in Alberta in 2015, the PCs in New Brunswick in 1999, and NDP in Ontario in 1990 were about as far back or further but that is all I can think of off the top of my head.  Also note more recently Brian Pallister in Manitoba had similar numbers and won a massive majority so PCs definitely heavily favoured.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2017, 09:19:06 pm »

The Ottawa Centre NDP nomination was today, and it was a very hotly contested race. I guess people have the delusion (we can all hope!) we will win the seat back? I got called / texted constantly about it because the NDP has the wrong address for me for some reason (I have lived in Ottawa South for 3 years now).

Anyway, it was a big surprise; the most left wing candidate won (Joel Harden), who is a Leap Manifesto supporter. He defeated a sitting public school trustee and another candidate endorsed by Ed Broadbent (and a fourth candidate). He won on the third ballot. How often does that happen?

The results were released too (of the first 2 rounds) which is rare for NDP nomination races, but it looks like the amount of time it took to run all three rounds meant that people who had other things to do and weren't hard core activists left and didn't vote in the final round. It would've made the difference.

People are fussing that picking the most left wing candidate will hurt the party's chances in the riding, but I don't think it will matter much; it would be a hard hill to climb for anyone, and maybe someone who can stand out has a better chance of winning the riding. At the end of the day the election will be a referendum on Yasir Naqvi and the provincial government and not about who the NDP candidate is. If enough people want to give Naqvi the boot, it will be the NDP who wins the seat.

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2017, 10:23:32 am »

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2017, 12:11:28 pm »

So many people in Ottawa Centre vote "strategically" to stop the Tories. I worked on the 2007 provincial campaign there, and this was something we kept hearing from people. We spent almost as much money as the Liberals, and killed them in the sign war, but they won by a big result. It was quite depressing. But Naqvi is a very popular MPP, so unseating him will be near impossible. Sure, the Liberals will be focusing on other races, but they don't need to compete as strongly as the NDP to keep the riding.

I have met Tories who vote NDP in Ottawa Centre though, so that is definitely a thing. But I can't see the Tories doing well, the demographics don't fit well for them anymore.

Agree the Tories won't do well in Ottawa Centre, but its a close enough race that if enough of them vote strategically or if the Liberals lose some Blue Liberals to the PCs it could tip things in favour of the NDP.  Otherwise Tories could play the role of the spoiler, not actually win.  As for strategic voting, Ottawa Centre has never been favourable to the Tories nor has even Ottawa-Vanier.  Those two ridings are not winneable even under the best scenario.  Even Ottawa South is a stretch and only in a say a 90 seat landslide might they be able to flip that one.  Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean are probably more competitive while Glengarry-Prescott-Russell I think could flip.  Nepean, Kanata-Carleton, and maybe even Carleton are winneable by the Liberals in the right circumstances like federally, but with all the baggage Wynne has cannot see the OLP winning those two next time around.  Now if the PCs win next year and mess up badly, maybe in 2022 they might be winneable for the Liberals. 
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2017, 06:40:20 pm »

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2017, 12:12:32 am »

Keep in mind that had Harris not been the populist-vote-sponging incumbent (and provincial party leader) in 1990, Nipissing could well have gone NDP that year.

True enough, although likely would have lost in 1995, as they won a whole whack of ridings they normally don't and in 1995 lost them all.  It did go Liberal in 2003 and 2007 before swinging back to the PCs in 2011 but certainly definitely at least at the provincial level leans to the centre-right.  I've found Algonquin Park and the areas just north of it are sort of the dividing point between the more left wing Northern Ontario and more conservative rural Southern Ontario.  Also the riding lacks a large Francophone and First Nation's population most Northern Ontario ridings have.

In addition if you look at the poll by poll breakdown the PCs tend to do well in areas near the Great Lakes but struggle north of it.  In Algoma-Manitoulin, Nickel Belt, and Kenora-Rainy River, PCs/Conservatives do well in the southern portions but get slaughtered in the northern portions while NDP does best in the northern portions.  Liberals are more evenly spread out and it seems a lot of them are strategic voters either to stop the NDP or PCs.
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« Reply #20 on: December 13, 2017, 12:41:28 am »

It's fair to assume that Bill 148 is dead as soon as Brown takes office, right?

No the PCs will just slow down the rate.  The minimum wage of $14/hour will not be rolled back, but the $15/hour will be phased in over 4 years instead of just one.  Fairly centrist policy IMHO but considering public opinion at least in Canada (not sure about other countries so much) is leaning leftward tough to say how the public will react to this.
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« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2018, 05:10:39 pm »

Looks like Cindy Forster ONDP MPP for Welland won't be running for re-election again this year. Welland, which come this distribution will be back to Niagara Centre (at least if we use the Federal names), losses Wainfleet which was much more PC friendly anyway.An old NDP stronghold, held since 1975 (Welland-Thorold) by the NDP. Don't really see the ONDP losing this riding, but they did lose it federally in 2015, and lose incumbency but won in 2011 after the late Koromos did not run again.

Also, Sarah Campbell NDP MPP for Kenora-Rainy River will also not run again. Held by the NDP since 87 (Rainy River). With Kenoa-Rainy River being divided into two new Ridings, Kiiwetinoong (basically everythign North of Sioux Lookout) and Kenora-Rainy River, these are still lean NDP but Greg Rickford, former Conservative MP is running in Kenora-Rainy River which looks to be the more competative riding for the PCs. Advantage ONDP still but with no incumbent this is a much more competative race, even if the NDP has a "star" candidate, and I think here they can attract one.



Hard to say about Brampton ridings.  Liberals are quite strong with the Indo-Canadian community while Patrick Brown is making inroads so with Singh not running again I think a Liberal or PC pick up of Brampton East is at least plausible.  Looking at the other NDP ridings my thoughts are as follows.

Toronto-Danforth they should hold while Parkdale-High Park leans in their favour but with Wynne tacking leftward and no incumbent could flip to the OLP.  Davenport, York South-Weston, and Beaches-East York are the best chances for pick ups while Humber River-Black Creek, Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, and University-Rosedale are more long shot hopes.

In the 905 belt outside of Brampton don't see much potential for pick ups.  Oshawa could be vulnerable as it seems you have the NDP do well in the older parts of the city with a lot of union workers but in the newer parts they tend to be more your 905 suburban commuters who are usually Liberal-PC swing voters so a drop in the Liberal support will probably help the PCs more than NDP.

In the Hamilton-Niagara region, they should hold the three urban Hamilton ridings.  Niagara Falls would probably go PC with generic candidates but with Wayne Gates personal popularity wouldn't be surprised if they hold it.  Niagara Centre may tighten up but still leans NDP  although if you have a scenario of PCs at 45%, Liberals 25% and NDP only 20% I could see the PCs pulling an upset under such scenario but skeptical that will happen.

In Southwestern Ontario, they should hold the three Windsor area ridings as well as London-Fanshawe.  Waterloo with its demographics could go for any of the three parties while London West will probably be a PC-NDP battleground.  As the most affluent of the London ridings, Brown's moderate platform should help them, but off course any bozo eruptions will kill their chances.  London North Centre is definitely ripe for picking up but any of three parties have a chance.  Liberals will almost certainly lose Brantford-Brant and while it will probably go PC, an NDP win if they can get some momentum is possible.  Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Sarnia-Lambton are long shots but if the PCs stay below 40% and NDP cracks the 30% mark they are possibilities.

Northern Ontario, should asides from Timmins and Kenora-Rainy River hold what they have and even those two favour them although it should be a bit tighter as the PCs usually get slaughtered in the parts lopped off while less so in the parts remaining.  Sudbury with the scandal looks good for a pick-up.  Two Thunder Bay ridings on paper look good, but the Liberal MPPs are quite popular however I think Thunder Bay-Atikokan is probably the better of the two.  Sault Ste. Marie could flip NDP, but at this point leans PC.

In Eastern Ontario, Ottawa Centre is their only realistic chance and with the Liberal MPP being quite popular I still think Liberals favoured here.

Now off course if the NDP surges into first place, they will win in a whole whack of ridings we don't expect, but so far that has not happened.  I think the PCs are the party with the best chance to win the most seats, but it is far from certain.  Liberals are on the uptick and not totally out of it, but Wynne's atrocious approval ratings makes me think they are more likely to decline in the polls than go up.  With Brown being unknown to many, campaign will matter and with a good campaign should strengthen their lead while a weak campaign see their numbers fall and likely put a majority out of reach and maybe not even win a plurality.  NDP faces the steepest hill to climb, but if the OLP craters there is a narrow opportunity to win, but it is a very narrow path.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2018, 01:48:47 pm »

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2018, 04:06:53 pm »

I don't think Durham will go NDP, it's fairly rural and will likely be a PC pickup.  Halton region is pretty much a Liberal-PC race so any surge in the NDP just delivers those to the PCs who are likely to get over 40% in each of them but will struggle to crack the 50% mark.  As for Oxford, I could say the NDP winning Woodstock and Ingersoll, but the rural parts and Tilsonburg I expect to go heavily PC so it is a safe PC riding.  In all likelihood they will probably crack the 50% mark there.  Brantford-Brant, Sarnia-Lambton, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are the only semi rural Southwestern Ontario ridings I could say the NDP picking up which they don't have and even there PCs still favoured.  Cambridge has the potential but I still think it favours the PCs followed by the Liberals.

In terms of outcome, the PCs are favoured at the moment but still far from certain they will even win the most seats.  As for majority vs. minority or losing outright for PCs, Ontario is a province where you can swing a whole whack of seats with a relatively small swing in votes so while I predicted a PC majority, it would not be a shocker if only a minority or even if they lose (that is if they shoot themselves in the foot which they have a habit of doing).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2018, 08:36:41 pm »

If I had to make my own guesses at this moment, these are my predictions (all which could change closer to the election):

Toronto (25 seats)
Liberal 12 PC 6 NDP 7

Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (43 seats)
Liberal 8 PC 26 NDP 9

Eastern Ontario (18 seats)
Liberal 5 PC 13 NDP 0

Southwestern Ontario (24 seats)
Liberal 1 PC 16 NDP 7

Northern Ontario (14 seats)
Liberal 1 PC 5 NDP 8

TOTAL

Liberal: 27
PC: 66
NDP: 31

A slim PC majority government with the NDP as the official opposition.

Of the 6 PC in Ontario, is Don Valley West one of those are do you still predict a Liberal win.  I think Wynne will hold her seat, but of the three leaders she is probably the most vulnerable to losing her own seat while Howarth is probably the safest.
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