Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

I have a feeling Jagmeet's win at the Federal level will help the Ontario NDP provincially in Peel region.  Perhaps his younger brother will run in Brampton East (the redistributed Bramalea Gore Malton)?  I'm not sure where he lives, but it would seem like a sure-win.

Gurratan Singh, also a lawyer. He has co-chair his brothers campaigns so maybe a jump into politics isn't that far of a stretch.
Another possible name is Gurpreet Dhillon; currently a Brampton city Councillor and ran for the ONDP in Brampton-Springdale in 2014, pretty high profile candidate if he chose to run in the new Brampton East. I think there is only some small overlap with redistribution. But Branpton-Springdale is no more replaced mostly by Brampton North and Brampton Centre, the ONDP already has Sara Singh looking to run in Brampton Centre (i'm pretty sure there is no relation at all). 

[lilTommy]

Surprising that Dhillon didn't endorse Singh. Is he even still with the NDP?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but outside of about half-a-dozen, dozen Toronto Councillors and maybe a few others from elsewhere (yes yes, TO-centric ) there weren't many municipal endorsements for any of the candidates were there?

[lilTommy]

Surprising that Dhillon didn't endorse Singh. Is he even still with the NDP?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but outside of about half-a-dozen, dozen Toronto Councillors and maybe a few others from elsewhere (yes yes, TO-centric ) there weren't many municipal endorsements for any of the candidates were there?

No, but that's because most municipal politicians don't want to appear partisan, especially for the NDP.

True enough, except those few areas in places like TO where it actually helps sometimes

[lilTommy]

Rumours didn't involve doing anything to anyone, but having "competitions" with interns.

... that is appalling.

Honestly, though, I fear he'll get in on the 'throw the bums out' ticket.

He is a bachelor and I think in today's world as long as it was consensual few will really care.  Only if non-consensual would it matter and we would probably have heard about it by now.

As for him winning, the Liberals have been in power for 15 years, Wynne's approval rating is under 20% so there is a strong desire for change.  Also Ontario has a long history of alteration whereby which party is in power at Queens Park is the opposite as in Ottawa.  Last provincial election we still had a Conservative government federally whereas now we have a Liberal one.  The NDP could ride the desire for change, but they seem to be largely invisible as well as the PC's have a much stronger base so they start out before picking up any swing voters at a much higher level thus making their path to power easier.  While Brown is not exactly that strong, he has done a good job at staying away from the hard right stuff that has sank the party in past elections so he is definitely favoured to win but far from certain.  In addition the Liberals are running to the left on an NDP like platform ($15/hour minimum wage, free prescription drugs for under 25, free tuition for low income families, rent controls) so if you want change of players not policy then yes NDP is where you go, but want a change in both, then it is the PC's.  The only big difference is the NDP wants to buy back the shares sold for Hydro One, but even though almost 80% opposed the sale of Hydro One, buying it back is a fairly low priority never mind would probably drive the debt up too.

Correction, the Ontario Liberals are NOT running on the left of the NDP, they are trying to be the NDP and a moderate form of them:
- $15 minimum wage, both support but the NDP is calling for bigger labour reforms Like 3 wks vacation, eliminating min.wage exemptions, moving to eliminate long-term "contract" workers.
- Pharmacare; Liberals is limited to 25 under (arguably those who need it the least) the NDP is a Universal Pharmacare
- Eliminate the Interest of Student loans for all students; The Liberal plan needs to be called out, its a Grant, not free. It caps out.

There are also differences of Transit funding, and as you mentioned Hydro, and if you read the by-back plan its full costed.
I'm being picky, but your point is solid. Running like the NDP helped them win in 2014. The NDP have to come at this like "You like the Liberal direction, but not the part, vote us we will continue and go ever farther" etc, etc. What will really help the NDP is if the Liberals are found guilty in either of the criminal cases going on now.

[lilTommy]

Urban Progressives really won't vote PC (Like DT Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa proper, London, Windsor); But Brown is trying to be a softer version of a Conservative to win over the 905 (and Suburban voters around Ottawa) voters who swing OLP-PC.
The ONDP does have to push the Corruption/arrogance button hard, and play the card that the ONDP plans aren't extreme or loony since the OLP is running on ONDP-lite plans. (basically you like what the OLP is doing with min.wage and pharmacare? vote ONDP were not corrupt or arrogant! )
I do think the ONDP need a few big planks that sets them apart, Electoral reform would be one, Free Tuition maybe, but along with $15min.wage and Pharmacare, the OLP is running on "lite" versions of these already. The ONDP needs to push its Hydro plan, which is public ownership they stand out there, more of that I think (like maybe taking back the 407, etc) also something bolder like bringing Dr.s back into the Public service (no longer treated as independent contractors, as we saw during the tax reforms federally) or massive tax reform (add more tax brackets for greater fair taxation).   

[lilTommy]

How many people in Ontario even know what it means to be an “urban progressive”? In my experience about 90% of voters don’t even know the difference between “right” and “left” in political terms

I think most people under 35 know the difference.  Think your comment applies much more to baby boomers. 
In terms of "urban progressives", i would hardly describe someone from London or Windsor as an "urban progressive".  Outside of DT-TO (and maybe Glebe-ites of Ottawa-Centre), much more ONDP support is populist and blue-collar.  Kind of more like the traditional Quebec socialist/left-ists with some libertarian in there (Let people do what they want to do..  BUT, you better help us when we need it).  This, of course, doesn't apply to DT Toronto elites who want big government, and want to be able to tell you what to do / what you can buy (and thereby limiting your right to do what you want).

You know what you said it better, more detailed... the two main types of ONDP groups would be those two I think
-Urban Progressive's/Leftists; your Democratic Socialists, academic/artist, white collar types, Big idea policies, government regulation/ownership, etc. typical of DT TO, Ottawa, but also enclaves in University cities, like Guelph and Kingston and in London and KW.
-Progressive-Populist's; your blue collar, organized labour workers, bread and butter politics type. I would say these people don't care if its big government (don't call it that) as long as it's affordable or lowers the cost. Pocket book policies play here. Then you have Northern Ontario, which falls under this progressive-populist group

[lilTommy]

You know what you said it better, more detailed... the two main types of ONDP groups would be those two I think
-Urban Progressive's/Leftists; your Democratic Socialists, academic/artist, white collar types, Big idea policies, government regulation/ownership, etc. typical of DT TO, Ottawa, but also enclaves in University cities, like Guelph and Kingston and in London and KW.
-Progressive-Populist's; your blue collar, organized labour workers, bread and butter politics type. I would say these people don't care if its big government (don't call it that) as long as it's affordable or lowers the cost. Pocket book policies play here. Then you have Northern Ontario, which falls under this progressive-populist group

And group 2 outnumbers group 1 by about a 5 to 1 margin...especially since most people in group 1 talk about voting NDP 364 days a year and then invariably on election day they go poo-poo in their pants and vote Liberal

... tell me about it! as someone who is in group 1, and will never vote Liberal, is in incredibly frustrating!

[lilTommy]

Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Because Premier Patrick Brown would totally not do that....

Yes, apparently it's now 'elitist' to sue somebody for defamation of character.  I suspect the OP, though, only believes it's 'elitist' for somebody on the left to sue somebody for defamation of character.

I'm actually on the left of centre (labour/populist/libertarian left), and support Andrea Horwath's NDP.  It's not a right/left thing.  Union workers in Sudbury or Timmins are of the left, and would likely feel the same way.  Not sure if Patrick Brown would do the same thing, but he also comes off as elitist/establishment.  The only one out of the three that doesn't is Andrea (who is admittedly populist).

I think that can partially explain why Wynne does better in TO in particular, the brand of NDP here... and let me be specific, Old Toronto-East York, is less populist, more champagne socialist, academia etc. I think Horwath has learnt quite a bit since 2014, by embracing well before the Liberals the $15min.wage, Pharmacare, Transit funding, etc; the ONDP is hoping this will win back lost voters in 2014 and continue with a populist progressive approach that saw the ONDP make gains most elsewhere.
Wynne is detestable in her I've-seen-the-light moment of now embracing these things, it's purely a political attach on the ONDP... where never, ever has the OLP even said good things about these positions (you see federally the Liberals opposed both, ran a campaign against the NDPs $15min.wage)

[lilTommy]

Pre Christmas Ipsos-reed poll; Brown up 8 while the NDP and governing liberals are tied for Second.

PC 36% (-3)
Liberal 28% (-4)
NDP 28% (+6)

Kathleen Wynne approval rating is just 26% in this poll.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/ontario-pcs-hanging-on-lead

Really good numbers for the NDP, PCs below 40 means minority. Some more key numbers is:
- in the 416, PCs (32%), Liberals (31%) and NDP (30%); that is bad news for the Liberals, in order to hold seats here they needed a weak NDP, and these look like Fed2011 numbers.
- in the 905, Liberals (34%) and PCs (32%) are statistically tied, NDP (24%) strategically competitive (Oshawa and Brampton only is my guess)
- Southwest, PCs (36%) are ahead of the NDP (31%), The NDP can use the momentum down here, if the Liberals continue to fall here (23%) and the NDP can chip some PC support, this will mean shifts in seats to the NDP (likely OLP seats like London NC, Brantford-Brant)

- (81%) of Ontarians believe it is time for another party to take over at Queen's Park; very bad news for the Liberals, yet still 28% support?, the OLP is much more resilient then Wynne is (some federally spill over maybe? the "Liberal" brand in general being strong)
- Horwath still sitting as best premier (41%) and Brown  (37%) not far behind

[lilTommy]

Now that Jagmeet's gone from Queen's Park (but not forgotten), it'll be *really* interesting to see what happens in Brampton in his absence--particularly given how his coattails lead to surprising second and near-second places in the other Brampton seats in 2014.  And consider that we're no longer dealing with 3 Brampton seats, but 5--and 6, if you include Malton.

OTOH the NDP 905 dilemma remains the same as always--on a municipal rather than prov-fed level, they have an infrastructure that's rudimentary at best...

I have a feeling Jagmeet will be campaigning alongside Andrea, particularly in the Peel region.  While Malton has the demographics for an NDP win, it contains only about 30% of the population; the Britannia area (West side of the riding) is much more wealthy (and not NDP friendly).  I could see the NDP keep Brampton East, and Brampton Centre is too close to call (they have a good shot), particularly at 28% across the province.  The other Brampton seats, not likely.

The only Other Brampton seat would be the new Brampton North, ever more then Brampton Centre. The northern portion of old Brampton Spingdale, the NDP got 31% in 2014 in this riding, and most of that vote looks to be in the north, west of Dixie. Now it loses some polls north of Sandalwood to Brampton East but gains some polls though. Might be the ONDPs second best target. Especially if the ONDP can convince former candidate and current city Councillor Gurpreet Dhillon to run.
I have this feeling that Andrea/Jagmeet might try to convince Jagmeets brother Gurratan to run in Brampton East (very much cut from the same cloth as his brother). 

[lilTommy]

Looks like Cindy Forster ONDP MPP for Welland won't be running for re-election again this year. Welland, which come this distribution will be back to Niagara Centre (at least if we use the Federal names), losses Wainfleet which was much more PC friendly anyway.An old NDP stronghold, held since 1975 (Welland-Thorold) by the NDP. Don't really see the ONDP losing this riding, but they did lose it federally in 2015, and lose incumbency but won in 2011 after the late Koromos did not run again.

Also, Sarah Campbell NDP MPP for Kenora-Rainy River will also not run again. Held by the NDP since 87 (Rainy River). With Kenoa-Rainy River being divided into two new Ridings, Kiiwetinoong (basically everythign North of Sioux Lookout) and Kenora-Rainy River, these are still lean NDP but Greg Rickford, former Conservative MP is running in Kenora-Rainy River which looks to be the more competative riding for the PCs. Advantage ONDP still but with no incumbent this is a much more competative race, even if the NDP has a "star" candidate, and I think here they can attract one.

[lilTommy]

At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.

The NDP have polled, since November, anywhere from 19% to 28%; so 30-55 seats being competitive is probably accurate based on polling.
This really will depend on the OLP vote; if they tank in TO as they did in 2011 and as they were polled last, the OLP will be third party. When the Liberals sank to 25% in 201 they won 11 seats, but the NDP at 25% won 22 seats. Looking at the OLP seats, they need the 416 and 905; last poll had them statistically tied in both, (strong NDP in 416, weaker in 905) with those numbers Liberals could win only 5-6 seats in TO, PC and NDP could win 8-9 each. I think Durham will go PC more heavily then Peel, but even if the OLP losses half their 905 seats, that leaves them with 12 (Peel, Halton, York, Durham regions i'm counting here, i count 24 OLP seats under the new boundaries, similar to the fed count ON 14 and Fed 15 elections saw very similar Liberal wins).

Also look at leaders, Horwath is the most popular polled, more so then the party; Wynne is the opposite personally performs terrible but the OLP % is hanging on, floor is probably 25% like mentioned.
If Horwath can convince Left Liberals that it is time for a change in governent/leader and less policy (The ONDP and Liberals have similar platforms, on purpose since that's the only way Wynne can win) easily the NDP can break 30%. I think in more populist areas, Southwest and North you have/will see more NDP-PC swings.

I agree, there are OLP seats that could swing either NDP or PC depending on who surges, Brantford-Brant, Cambridge specifically; Scarb. North and Southwest, Bramp. North and East. London NC is much more favourable to the NDP. The above will determine that. If the parties are all around 30% give or take 4 points, this is hard to predict and more local factors like candidates and local big issues will come into play. I'm leaning more and more PC minority.

[lilTommy]

Probably a smart move as Mushkegowuk-James Bay will go NDP no matter what whereas Timmins leans NDP but the PCs did reasonably well there so having an incumbent run there helps seal the deal.  As hatman mentioned in another topic, in Northern Ontario urban areas tend to be less left wing than rural areas in Northern Ontario, sort of the opposite of Southern Ontario.  Sudbury and Thunder Bay usually go Liberal, Sault Ste. Marie seems to either go Liberal or PC with one usually getting clobbered although sometimes NDP, but not a lot of NDP-Liberal swing voters and North Bay is more PC provincially, Liberal federally.

This is what I expected from the get go; Bisson held the old Cochrane South seat which was based around Timmins, this is his home turf and made the most sense. Being the most competitive seat of the new north, this is a smart move for the NDP. I think the new Kenora-Rainy River will be also one to watch, with no NDP incumbent anymore and a former Conservative MP as the PC candidate (high profile), I can see this perhaps going PC... lean NDP still but competitive.

Guy Bourgouin is Metis, so if he wins (nomination) and wins (the seat) this will accomplish both electing a francophone and some who is Indigenous. He's from Kapuskasing (2014 the Liberals won over the area, I think it was noted that the OLP candidate was from here back then) and is President of one of the United Steelworkers locals (very NDP lol)
https://org62.my.salesforce.com/aJS0M000000ss90WAA

[lilTommy]

Forum has their's: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/d0186a29-31a5-43a7-a8cf-18871885e292January%20ON%20Horserace.pdf

PC - 43%
OLP - 24%
NDP - 24%
... looks like the shift from November was NDP to PC (PC up 3, NDP down 2)

What's interesting is the impact that has on Seat estimates (a guess at best, but interesting):
Jan Poll          Nov Poll
PC - 88          PC - 80
NDP - 24        NDP - 31  
OLP - 12        OLP - 11
That two point shift moved about 7 seats from the NDP to PCs, that's interesting, the OLP lose 1 yet their vote remains the same.

[lilTommy]

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

2. PC voters tend to absolutely LOATH Kathleen Wynne and polling data i have seen says that by about a 3-1 margin they have the NDP as their second choice not the Liberals...this could actually be a good opportunity for Andrea Horwath

The PCs are going to rush a leader, they have to. I think the smart move is probably Lisa MacLeod, the quash this whole thing and bring in three women as leaders.

I also think this could be a good/bad for the NDP; depending on whom the PC leader is of course. the change vote particularly among women and younger voters will migrate to the NDP. I think this could benefit the NDP in particular in the SW and North, perhaps the 905 as well. In TO, the PC vote is typically wealthier and more conservative, especially fiscally, I think this will sour some voters and decrease the PC vote, but will they migrate to the OLP again? I think there is some Liberal fatigue in TO but... it is Toronto so you never know. I think the new PC leader will determine if the PC vote stabilizes or drops, which will affect the NDP. Also, the PC vote could just stay home, which again benefits the OLP. Right now, the NDP HAS to focus on mobilizing those non-voter progressives, the same one's who came out for Trudeau.
But right now, Horwath is sitting as the best leader with the best brand.

[lilTommy]

From the Star!

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

"History rarely repeats itself directly. A lot can happen between now and June 7. But if, as the politicians seem to think, the upcoming election becomes a referendum on whether to oust Wynne, then voters will be looking for a credible alternative to the Liberals — one that will be different but not too different." - this has been my point, is that the policies are popular, and with the details being different Horwath and the NDP are basically ready to slip in and continue on the changes made and move even more to the left.

Hints of 1990? basically with the PCs having to clean house and start all over again from a leaders perspective, the NDP is becoming the Alternative to the OLP.

Elliott is no longer an MPP, but that might not really matter too much if she wants the job. There was also mention of MPs Raitt and O"Toole could be interested in running for the leader. But already were seeing reports of the split between the hard-right, centre-right within the PCs. 

[lilTommy]

Second article pumping the Similarity to 1990, from the Globe
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/bob-rae-all-over-again-the-ndp-might-be-a-serious-threat-in-ontario-election/article37799108/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=Referrer%3A+Social+Network+%2F+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
 - its a pay wall, but mimics the Star article.

"Now, once again, the Ontario Liberals are deeply unpopular and the Conservatives are divided. Once again, the NDP might emerge as the last party standing.
Ms. Horwath has led the NDP since 2009, taking it to two third-place electoral defeats. Most people have no idea what's in the party's platform, but assume it's generally to the left of the Liberals.
On the other hand, Ms. Horwath routinely tops the polls as the most popular leader, just as Mr. Rae did back in the day. She can present herself to Ontario voters as an experienced, capable leader who could be trusted to run the store. If she can overcome voter nervousness over the party's tendency to drive taxes up and growth down, the NDP could emerge as an electable alternative.
Because right now, in Ontario, anything is possible. Even that.""

[lilTommy]

Second article pumping the Similarity to 1990, from the Globe
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/bob-rae-all-over-again-the-ndp-might-be-a-serious-threat-in-ontario-election/article37799108/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=Referrer%3A+Social+Network+%2F+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
 - its a pay wall, but mimics the Star article.

"Now, once again, the Ontario Liberals are deeply unpopular and the Conservatives are divided. Once again, the NDP might emerge as the last party standing.
Ms. Horwath has led the NDP since 2009, taking it to two third-place electoral defeats. Most people have no idea what's in the party's platform, but assume it's generally to the left of the Liberals.
On the other hand, Ms. Horwath routinely tops the polls as the most popular leader, just as Mr. Rae did back in the day. She can present herself to Ontario voters as an experienced, capable leader who could be trusted to run the store. If she can overcome voter nervousness over the party's tendency to drive taxes up and growth down, the NDP could emerge as an electable alternative.
Because right now, in Ontario, anything is possible. Even that.""

No doubt the NDP has strong potential here.  While still in a distant third, they are no lower than Jack Layton was at this point going into 2011 or Rachel Notley going into 2015.  That being said all massive NDP surges I've seen have always been in places where they've never formed government, in provinces where they have formed government you don't tend to see as wild a swing.  Now since its been a generation that creates an interesting opportunity.  While many older voters may not want to go NDP, you do have a whole new generation who weren't old enough to vote the last time they formed government as well as people who have moved into the province.  I still think the chances of an NDP government are well under 50%, but they are a heck of a lot better than they were a week ago and the longer the PC turmoil continues the better they will get.

I think the NDP is always slow burn in Ontario; You could argue that 1919 was an NDP-like government, United Farmers. But it wasn't until 1934 when the CCF almost was the government, but had been pretty much non-existent until that point. Then perpetual 3rd party until 1975 when the NDP moved into Official Opposition. a more stable 20ish seat third party till 1990 when they surprised and formed government.
I think what's interesting now, is that the OLP have presented themselves as almost identical to the NDP, NDP-light except will all their own baggage. which is also different from the Peterson years; but there are still similarities with Liberal scandals and being seen as too close to developers. Some things never change:P

[lilTommy]

Am I the only one that thinks all this is creating a perfect storm for Horwath a la Notley in 2015?

Or Bob Rae in 1990.

Go back a few pages, I posted two articles from The Star and I think the Globe&Mail saying just this! shades of 90'.

The NDP has a highly valued/mildly well known candidate in University-Rosedale, Jessica Bell from the transit advocacy group TTCRiders, and has been in place for months; The Toronto Centre NDP race has three candidates from what I can see (two openly gay men, the other a female indigenous candidate), I believe the nomination race is in March. But haven't heard anything about Spadina-Fort York. You can see how they have prioritized them. Lost opportunity in SpFY i think with the weak Han Dong in a riding that could swing with NDP or Liberal.

[lilTommy]

Am I the only one that thinks all this is creating a perfect storm for Horwath a la Notley in 2015?

Or Bob Rae in 1990.

Go back a few pages, I posted two articles from The Star and I think the Globe&Mail saying just this! shades of 90'.

The NDP has a highly valued/mildly well known candidate in University-Rosedale, Jessica Bell from the transit advocacy group TTCRiders, and has been in place for months; The Toronto Centre NDP race has three candidates from what I can see (two openly gay men, the other a female indigenous candidate), I believe the nomination race is in March. But haven't heard anything about Spadina-Fort York. You can see how they have prioritized them. Lost opportunity in SpFY i think with the weak Han Dong in a riding that could swing with NDP or Liberal.

Another one:

http://albertapolitics.ca/2018/02/andrea-horwath-will-ontarios-next-premier-remember-heard-first-albertans/

From an Alberta perspective/comparison

[lilTommy]

Am I the only one that thinks all this is creating a perfect storm for Horwath a la Notley in 2015?

Or Bob Rae in 1990.

Go back a few pages, I posted two articles from The Star and I think the Globe&Mail saying just this! shades of 90'.

The NDP has a highly valued/mildly well known candidate in University-Rosedale, Jessica Bell from the transit advocacy group TTCRiders, and has been in place for months; The Toronto Centre NDP race has three candidates from what I can see (two openly gay men, the other a female indigenous candidate), I believe the nomination race is in March. But haven't heard anything about Spadina-Fort York. You can see how they have prioritized them. Lost opportunity in SpFY i think with the weak Han Dong in a riding that could swing with NDP or Liberal.

Another one:

http://albertapolitics.ca/2018/02/andrea-horwath-will-ontarios-next-premier-remember-heard-first-albertans/

From an Alberta perspective/comparison

Main takeaway from this speculation is that campaigns matter. Let the Tories pick their leader, and the campaign start. If Horwath makes some noise, she could definitely win. OTOH this speculation often veers into parallelomania by ignoring factors that contradict the narrative. (E.g. This won't be a snap election like Alberta and the Tories have been out of power for 15 years, not 5 like in 1990)

Agreed, I think Alberta comparison's just won't work (just nice to post!); two very different provinces and history's. Now previous comparison's to 1990 Rae, that makes more sense... but in 2018 the ONDP are STILL living down propaganda and legitimate issues with Rae's government, but the PCs still have the Harris handicap as well.
Horwath is already beginning to launch into campaign mode, but the media is still pretty PC focused. 

[lilTommy]

a DART poll (?)
http://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Provincial-Preference-Release-March-7-2018.pdf

PC - 44%
NDP - 24%
OLP - 19%
other - 13% (I'm thinking this is mostly undecideds, going by the regions I can't see the Greens pulling in 20% in the North? but 13 for Greens, Trillium, Libertarian, etc might not be that far off)

416 - PC 36%, NDP 31%, OLP 22%, other 11%
GTA - PC 54%, OLP 19%, NDP 16%, other 12%
Central - PC 52%, NDP 25%, OLP 17%, Other 6%
SWOn - PC 41%, NDP 25%, OLP 18%, other 16%
East - PC 43%, NDP 24%, OLP 21, other 13%
North - NDP 40%, PC 27%, OLP 14%, other 20%

I threw this in the simulator (with a grain of salt, but still fun) - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

PC - 98
NDP - 25
OLP - ... wait for it, 1! (Guess which one? Toronto Centre, which I think is not realistic at all)

[lilTommy]

Forum is already hot off the mark with a post-Ford poll. They have:

PCs - 44% and projected to win 84 seats
NDP - 27% and projected to win 29 seats
Liberals - 23% and projected to win 11 seats (!!)


http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2835/doug-ford-leadership-march-2018

Change since the last Forum Poll, Feb 23rd:

PC - -2% (46%)
NDP - +3% (24%)
OLP - +2% (21%)

[lilTommy]

Which ridings would the OLP likely retain on 25% of the vote?

St. Paul's, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South, Kingston for starters.

Ford kind of throws a monkey-wrench into simply transposing the previous numbers though...

I think a good point of reference would be 2011 Federally; BUT Fords entry does throw this off.
I'd normally add Scarborough-Agincourt and Scarborough-Guildwood, But those are both in Ford-PC play now (more Agincourt then Guildwood).
I think Guelph, partially due to the distribution of votes between the PCs/NDP/Greens (their leader is running here and in 2014, he polled 20%); Unless the NDP or PCs (this isn't a FordPC type riding) can eat out a Huge chunk of Liberal vote or each others (NDP from Green, or Green from NDP) This is going to be a Liberal riding.
I think there may be some unique MPP/Candidate won over Liberal ridings, won despite being Liberal like Markham-Thornhill in 2011 with MacCallum. So ON2018, Maybe both or one of the Thunder Bay ridings remains Liberal. From what I know Mauro and Gravelle are both personally popular.
St. Catharines; Jim Bradley has been the MPP since 1977 for the Liberals, holding on during the Rae and Harris sweeps so I think he might win on his personal popularity alone... he'd win as an Indie I think even.

[lilTommy]

I think a good point of reference would be 2011 Federally; BUT Fords entry does throw this off.
I'd normally add Scarborough-Agincourt and Scarborough-Guildwood, But those are both in Ford-PC play now (more Agincourt then Guildwood).

Agreed, Agincourt would certainly be one of the Toronto first seats to fall to the PCs.  The federal Tories were able to get 40% in a by-election with the unknown Andrew Scheer leading them and Justin Trudeau being far more popular Kathleen Wynne leading them.  And Doug Ford is quite popular in the Chinese community.

On the other hand, I feel pretty confident saying that Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence will stick with the Liberals. 

PC candidate is not a well known, and Colle is running again, I think Eglinton-Lawrence, will be close, but yes held on Colle populatiry. Don Valley West, yesh, Wynne being so personally un-popular and much of the opposition to Sex-ed coming from here, from Flemingdon and Thorncliffe. We've seen Premiers lose seats, like Peterson in 90. I'm not sold Wynne can win (pardon the pun)

The forum poll was mapped on the News last night; the OLP held on the University-Rosedale, Spadina-Fort York and Toronto Centre only. I don't see that; Toronto Centre, the Liberals have no candidate yet, PCs and NDP have candidates, the NDP is highly active on the ground already... but if the Liberals have a big candidate, could stay Liberal. The NDP has higher profile candidates in University-Rosedale with TTCRiders advocate Jessica Bell and Spadina-Fort York where School Trustee Chris Glover will be the NDP candidate against back-bench low profile Han Dong.
The NDP were polled to pick up - Beaches-East York, York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek. PCs won everything else (I find it hard to believe Davenport would go anything but NDP or Liberal, and as mentioned St. Paul's will be Liberal).