Ontario 2018 election

[Krago]

Hilarious that the 4th place NDP won more polls in Guelph than the 2nd place Tories. The Tories ran up a lot of 2nd place finishes in the suburbs, but finished in 4th in the city's core. 

Illustrate with maps!

[Krago]

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

This looks like the best approach.

The writ drop is in like four months. Seems way too short of a time to have a convention and introduce a new leader to the public. Far better to do a British style caucus vote and give the new leader time to get up to speed.

There is the precedent of the 1988 Manitoba NDP leadership convention, which was held mid-campaign in the worst possible circumstances.

I'm trying to think of cases where a party replaced their leader just a few months prior to an election.  In the U.S., Republican Jon Grunseth was forced out of the 1990 Minnesota gubernatorial election just nine days before voting day due to a sex scandal involving pre-teen girls.  His replacement Arne Carlson defeated Democratic incumbent Rudy Perpich by 50%-47%.

[Krago]

No, that's east-central Ontario.

Thanks.  I agree.

Do you consider it to be in Northern Ontario, though, in the same way that Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered to be in the North?

Here is the only map of Northern Ontario that really matters:
http://curlnoca.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/map_affiliated_Oct_2016.pdf

[Krago]

From Tony Clement's twitter feed:

@TonyclementCPC · Jan 28 
In answer to numerous inquiries I’m confirming that I’m staying in federal politics, BUT I’m not disinterested in the health and the success of the Ontario PCs. We need change in Queen’s Park and i will do my part! #onpoli @OntarioPCParty


The question is: how many inquiries did he get from people asking him to run?

My guess is 3.

[Krago]

Monte MacNaughton and Lisa MacLeod are also both out.

"Where have you gone, Tim Hudak,
A province turns its lonely eyes to you, woo, woo, woo."

[Krago]

Is there any way Brown creates/leads another party into the election if he isn't allowed to run for the leadership?

Especially given how close we are to the election, I see that as impossible.

The Trillium Party website shows no candidate yet for Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte (or 95 other ridings).

My favourite Trillium Party policy: "There can be no computerized artificial intelligence used in the creation of legislation, regulation or policy. This is to ensure the ministry creating the legislation, regulation and policy are accountable for the document they are creating."  What the hell does that mean?

[Krago]

Ford won 50.6% to 49.4%

The same split as the 1995 Quebec referendum.

[Krago]

Dumb question.

I have an Excel file with the 3rd ballot results by electoral district.  Is there a way to upload it to the Gallery, or does that only accept images?

Anyone who wants a copy can send me a private message.

[Krago]

Elliott needed five more votes per riding to beat Ford.  Or else 157 more votes spread over four ridings (2 Thunder Bay--Superior North, 25 Timmins, 59 Mushkegowuk--James Bay, 71 Kiiwetinoong)

[Krago]

Interesting question: how many Brown-era PC candidates will quit (voluntarily or otherwise) now that Ford is Leader?

[Krago]

Ho hum, too much tax talk, not enough election talk.

Georgio Mammoliti has to decided not to run provincially.

https://www.bramptonguardian.com/news-story/8369192-mammoliti-won-t-run-in-brampton-centre-riding-after-all/

[Krago]

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

There were four ridings where the NDP received more votes in 1995 than in 1990:

- Cochrane North
- Cochrane South
- Parry Sound
- Sault Ste. Marie

They would have been re-elected easily if it hadn't been for those other 126 ridings.

[Krago]

Andrea Horwath: She needs to be positive but also go after Ford will ignore Wynne.  She needs to make the case that for those wanting change, she is the better one to deliver the change people want.  Otherwise she needs to find a way to connect with both change voters (who are mostly supporting Doug Ford) and progressives who want to stop Ford (which are equally split between Wynne and her).

Completely disagree.

The imminent Ontario election will be split into two parts.  The first half will be the 'Progressive Primary' to decide who will be the Left's champion against FordNation, while the second half will be the fight to decide who will form the government.  

At the start of the 2015 federal election, the Liberals flooded the airwaves (in the GTA/SW Ontario anyway) with a radio ad that went straight after Mulcair and the NDP (]https://www.liberal.ca/liberals-launch-two-candidates-radio-ad/]).  After they passed the NDP in the polls, they re-directed their aim against Harper.

I think Horwath should follow the same path.  Though the NDP is only a few points behind the Liberals, the gap is entirely due to Liberals defecting to the PCs.  The NDP is treading water (22.7% in 2011, 23.7% in 2014, 23.3% (Grenier) in 2018) and needs to attack the Liberals on their deathbed conversion to 'socialist' values.
  
The Liberals are planning their usual MiB strategy: "We're your first, last and only line of defense against the worst scum of the universe."  Only if (when?) the NDP starts inching ahead of the Wynne gang into second place can Horwath start attacking Doug Ford.


ETA: Looks like the NDP move into second place happened sooner than I expected:
The Maclean’s-Pollara Ontario Election Poll: Welcome to third place, Liberals

[Krago]

Is there anyone else out there who thinks that Kathleen Wynne may resign as Ontario Liberal leader on the weekend, and recommend that the party unanimously support Sandra Pupatello as her replacement?

It wouldn't be the first time that the Liberals tried to change leaders in mid-campaign (1988), and Wynne's brand is so toxic I think she is past the point of no return.

The Liberals would have to choose someone willing to go full throttle against Ford and Horwath over the next four weeks, and the only name that comes to mind is Pupatello (whom my brother-in-law calls the Wicked Witch of Windsor West).

[Krago]

Why would they pick someone who is not even running as a candidate?

Like Chretien in 1988?

[Krago]

I'm trying to map the polling regions used by the various firms for the Ontario provincial election.

Here are the regions used by Mainstreet.  The ridings are listed on 'Ridings and Regions' section of their poll report.  I emailed Mainstreet about the Huron-Bruce and Simcoe-Grey oddities, and they confirmed that they are correct.




Here are the regions used by Forum and Abacus.  They follow the area code boundaries.  Haldimand-Norfolk, Wellington-Halton Hills and Dufferin-Caledon all straddle the boundary between 519 and 905, with the majority of their populations on the 519 side.




I can't find the polling regions used by Ipsos, Pollara or Leger.  Nanos doesn't seem to use regions in Ontario.

[Krago]

I designed the regions, so I can tell you which ridings are where if you want, Krago.

Bless you.  Please PM me, and I'll make a map.

[Krago]

The Greens are currently winning the sign war in Guelph, but considering I've only seen about a dozen signs on people's lawns, that ain't worth much.

[Krago]

What does Ipsos define as Central Ontario?

Everything in the L postal code area outside Halton/Peel/York/Durham.

Niagara/Hamilton/Simcoe/Peterborough

[Krago]

Tomorrow is Nomination Day.  That means that all the juicy tidbits that parties have been collecting about their opponents' candidates will start dribbling out, after the deadline has passed for them to be replaced. 

So far, only Tanya Granic Allen has been tossed.  What is the over/under on the number of candidates who will be disavowed by their party in the next three weeks?  My guess is four. 

[Krago]

I agree, I think the Liberals will receive something like a Rae '95 vote share.

1995 Ontario Election

PC - 44.8% - 82 seats
Lib - 31.1% - 30
NDP - 20.6% - 17
Oth - 3.5% - 1

[Krago]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.

Well I doubt any major party would ever concede an election publicly or admit their not going to win before polls close. Conceding before hand would risk suppressing your parties turnout making the result for your party worse then it could potentially end up being.

Exactly. I'm not asking if Wynne is conceding the race. I'm talking about the practicalities of the campaign. Is she spending all of her time in Ottawa and Guelph and central Toronto or is she still doing lots of events in lost causes like Milton and Cambridge? That sort of thing.

Does any Liberal today think that having Kathleen Wynne campaign in their riding would help them to get re-elected?

I am coming to the conclusion that Kathleen Wynne is the Nickelback of Ontario politics.  People seem to be gleeful to hate on her, even if she isn't quite as noxious as she's portrayed.

[Krago]

Enough about each specific riding. Today it was alleged that the now replaced PC candidate in Brampton East stole the data of 60,000 highway 407 customers and sold it to 29 PC Party candidates in their nomination battles, for $20K per riding. It was then arranged for international students to cast votes using the stolen identities in the nomination battles.

If at all true, this makes the PC Party an organized criminal group. There's no damn way that a campaign could make a $20K expenditure without the candidate's approval. If the PC Party wins, much of their caucus would be facing serious criminal charges.

Suddenly, PC Party dirty tricks have personally affected everyone who has ever used highway 407. And guess which constituencies are they and their families most concentrated?

Something just doesn't smell right about this story.  It's tough enough to keep a conspiracy hidden with just three people; with 29 candidates, families, advisors, hangers-on and hundreds (?) of students, this would remain secret for about an hour and a half.

Also, how did they use the names on the list for a nomination meeting?  Did they forge drivers' licenses with the names and addresses of the hapless 407ers?  Also, membership lists are usually circulated to all the candidates, so that they can contact the riding members.  Did nobody notice all the phony e-mail addresses and phone numbers (or no e-mails at all)?

I would love for this to be true, and to dog Doug Ford for the next three weeks.  But something tells me that no more than a handful of candidates were involved, and this kind of 'inside baseball' story will fade out after the weekend.  Unless, I'm completely wrong.

[Krago]

But if every penny the candidates paid ($20,000) went directly to the students ($200 x 100), where is the profit?  It would seem like a very dicey, quasi-illegal thing to do without expecting some reward.

Who would organize such a campaign just to gain access to 29 potential Ontario MPPs? (*cough* Putin *cough*)  And how were these 29 people recruited?  Kijiji?

[Krago]

According to the Toronto Star, the Liberal campaign song is “Just Like Fire” by P!nk.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/05/17/ontario-election-campaign-songs-hint-at-messages-leaders-want-to-send.html

The first line of the song is: “I know that I’m running out of time.”