Ontario 2018 election

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

I have family from Muskoka, and I visit there once a year or so. Muskoka is very borderline between Central and Northern Ontario. Some could make the argument that it is at the northern fringes of Central Ontario, or that it is the beginning of Northern Ontario. Muskoka is north of the tree line though, which is where the trees go from deciduous to coniferous.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Wasn't Doug Ford a cocaine dealer back in the 80's?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This completely blows my mind. I figured Ford would be a laughing stock and be capped at 25% or so. I always thought of the PC's as a country club chamber of commerce establishment party. I didn't think of it as a Trumpian pitchfork populist one.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Is the Ontario NDP in bad shape?

I'll defer to the Ontarians for a detailed explanation, but my understanding is that they aren't in disarray. The problem is that they haven't converted some opportunities and there is still a little bit of a bad taste from their last government in the 1990's.

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Or the federal Iggy Liberals in 2011.  Of course, re the early 90s, that's seat totals, not overall vote tally--which means, it could still happen (much as it did in 1975 when the NDP became official opposition in the first Davis minority).

Remember that the ONDP still, to this day, suffers from the collateral third-leg-thrust-into-power "not ready for prime time" damage of a quarter century ago.  And if Wynne's doing as well as she is, it's also because Doug Ford isn't a readymade "neutral" vessel for votes a la Jean Chretien or various BC Liberal leaders...

The example I was thinking of was before 1993... Mulroney actually spent much of his 2nd term behind the NDP in the polls. I think the NDP actually led for a little while. Otherwise I agree with what you said.

That is interesting you remember that. I remember watching a old CBC clip from the late 80's in my civics class. Brian Mulroney addressed the NDP leader Ed Broadbent as Mr Prime Minister or Mr Prime Minister Elect.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Do you think Ontario is merely disgusted with just the Liberal party or is disgusted with all left wing parties in general?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Things are getting interesting with a brand new poll by Forum all conducted Wednesday night

PCs 40%
NDP 33%
OLP 22%

I have a gut feeling this turns into a 1990 Bob Rae situation.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

Barrie has Georgian College.

Yea as a Barrieite, I was pretty upset about us getting denied for a university. We ended up losing out to somewhere in the GTA. Central Ontario overall just loves the PC's.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

Barrie seems like a pretty establishment friendly place, not a good place for Fordian Populism.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

Wow that is big as Tories usually get around 50% or more there in recent elections so suggests they are not just picking up Liberals but PCs too.  Will be interesting to see how things play out the next week, but for the first time, if I had to bet money, I would bet on the NDP winning instead of PCs, but still wouldn't be a lot at this moment.

Yea I switched my official prediction to the NDP winning 4-5 days ago. Hard to say if it will be a 1990 style blowout or a squeaker. There is also chance of the NDP winning the popular vote by 1-2% but getting less seats than the PC's.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Remember back in 2016 when Liberals said that there would be a silent anti Trump vote? People across the country were supposed to see Trump as a threat to basic decency and civility in the voting booth. I hope left wingers aren't hoping for the same in Ontario.