How each election's map would look like if the PV was tied

[OSR stands with Israel]

1964-1988 Maps:


1964:

LBJ: 298
Goldwater : 240

1968:

Nixon : 302
Humphrey: 191
Wallace: 45

1972:

McGovern 273
Nixon 265


1976:

Ford : 284
Carter : 254


1980:

Carter 286
Reagan 252


1984:

Reagan 306
Mondale 232

1988:

Bush 283
Dukakis 255



 

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992-2016:


1992: 

Bush 275
Clinton 263


1996:

Clinton 279
Dole 259


2000:

Bush 301
Gore 237


2004:

Kerry 284
Bush 254

2008:

Obama 278
McCain 260

2012:

Obama 272
Romney 253
Too Close to call: 13(Virginia goes Obama using Atlas popular vote results , Romney using Wiki)


2016:

Trump 320
Clinton 218

[OSR stands with Israel]

Things that I find surprising:

Illinois being more GOP than the nation in 1964

How similar 1976 OTL and 1980(in this one) are despite Reagan and Ford being from different wings of the GOP


Tennessee being the southern state more dem than the nation in 1984, despite convention wisdom thinking it would likely be Arkansas


Oregon being more GOP than nation in 1996

[OSR stands with Israel]

Great topic. Here are some of my observations.

--Out of these 14 elections, each party has had the EC advantage seven times. This tells me the stat is pretty random and self-correcting, and that there is no long-term inherent EC advantage for either party.

--The party with the EC advantage has won nine out of the 14 elections (64.3% frequency). So while having the EC advantage may give you an edge, it is certainly not necessary to win.

--Ronald Reagan may have run up his EV total with a lot of narrow wins in 1980, but it was still one of the great upsets of presidential election history. If the national polls leading up to the election turned out to be correct, Carter could've very well been reelected while losing the PV.

--The 1992-2012 "Blue Wall" had some cracks in it, even though they were invisible. NJ voted to the right of the nation in 1992, WI voted to the right of the nation in 1992 & 2000, and OR voted to the right of the nation in 1996 & 2000.

--There really is no such thing as uniform swing from one election to another. While most people on this forum...myself included...like to mentally masturbate over past election results and try to use them to determine the future, you really can't. The entire reason these maps exist is because states change relative to the nation from one election to the next. Would anybody have ever thought after 2012 that a 2.1% Democratic victory in the PV would only get them to 232 EV's?

Carter was down by 3 points in the final polls , and the map would look like this in that case

Reagan 320
Carter 218


Its stunning though how other than Texas, Florida,Virginia Carter would have swept the south in this scenario. I think this proves that the real realignment in the south came in 1984.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So this got me wondering if 1932 was as big of a realignment as I previously thought it was? So lets do the maps of 1924-1936 if the PV was tied to see when the realignment really was.

1924:

Coolidge 310
Davis 208
La Follette 13

This map looks like 1916 except its a GOP victory, and the progressives are taking lots of votes away from the Democrats in the West


1928:

Smith 296
Hoover 227
Tied 8

Man its insane how similar this map looks like to 1976(which is considered the last election where the new deal coalition was able to win an election for the democrats)


1932:

FDR 270
Hoover 261


Wow so Smith PVI did better in North East the Roosevelt did


1936:

Landon 309
FDR 222

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's 1960:

Illinois is basically a tie

[OSR stands with Israel]

so Based on this 1960 was the realigning election not 1964/1968

[OSR stands with Israel]

2020 Was this(Will use old map for this):

Trump 311
Biden 227