If you were told Trump was going to win

[Burke Bro]

If you could travel back in time to November 7, 2016 and tell your past self that Donald Trump was going to win (without specifying the states and number of electoral votes he won), what would have changed in your prediction? Discuss with maps.


I'd have guessed something like this:

[Deblano]

I had given Trump a 50-50 chance of winning and I thought a victory for him would look like this.

[Lord Admirale]

288-250

[Rookie Yinzer]

Subtract MI, WI, and PA and add New Hampshire, Colorado, narrow victory in Nevada.

[TC 25]

My election morning prediction was Trump winning with 276-284 EVs.. i figured he'd win either MI or PA, not both, and perhaps NH as a bonus.  WI stunned me.

[twenty42]

On Monday I would have been shocked that Trump would win without NV or NH, but I really didn't feel like Trump was going to win anyway. If I had to predict Trump's hypothetical path to victory at that point I'd have said Romney + OH + FL + NV + NH + IA + ME-02, but I'd have agreed with 538 that it had about a 30% likelihood of happening.

That being said, when I went to the polls at 8:30 AM on Tuesday, I knew right then and there Trump was going to win PA. The line was three times as long as I'd ever seen, and it was all white men.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is 270-268 Clinton but literally the only way I saw a Trump victory as remotely possible is if faithless electors botched the voting process.

[The Mikado]

This is 270-268 Clinton but literally the only way I saw a Trump victory as remotely possible is if faithless electors botched the voting process.

Just flip ME-02 and you have a 269-269 tie that Congress would've put Trump in the White House on.

[jaichind]

In reality I missed WI MI PA since I thought that Trump would narrowly lose.

[Xing]

Actual results, but with Clinton winning WI/MI

[Mr. Smith]

If you could travel back in time to November 7, 2016 and tell your past self that Donald Trump was going to win (without specifying the states and number of electoral votes he won), what would have changed in your prediction? Discuss with maps.


I'd have guessed something like this:

This, but with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania switched.

[DPKdebator]

In October or so, I made a map showing what I thought a Trump victory would look like:

[The Govanah Jake]

I'd think his campaign in Pennsylvania would had been a success and won the state by the slimmest of margins while Clinton holds on to Wisconsin by a tight margin and Michigan with a slightly bigger but still small margin. Trump also i'd think hold onto Florida and North Carolina because those are crucial and they were close on November 7th. And he would also win in Nevada because (as a avid 538 follower during the election) since he was winning the state polls on that day or less then 1-2% behind. And he also wins Maine's Second District since he was leading there which results in a near 290 victory like this.

[The Mikado]

I'd think his campaign in Pennsylvania would had been a success and won the state by the slimmest of margins while Clinton holds on to Wisconsin by a tight margin and Michigan with a slightly bigger but still small margin. Trump also i'd think hold onto Florida and North Carolina because those are crucial and they were close on November 7th. And he would also win in Nevada because (as a avid 538 follower during the election) since he was winning the state polls on that day or less then 1-2% behind. And he also wins Maine's Second District since he was leading there which results in a near 290 victory like this.

That's 280, not 290.

It's also pretty much the path of least resistance for Trump. A good map.

EDIT: Sorry, missed NV. 286.

[Pericles]

Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 284 EV 45.8%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 254 EV 47.1%

I'm not sure if I'd have given Trump Michigan, but I would not have given him Wisconsin as I thought he was a bad fit for the state especially given his clobbering in the state's primary. I was surprised that he lost New Hampshire as he was leading in the final polls there(not all of them though) and it was the 'weakest link' in Clinton's firewall. Given Nate Silver predicted a PV-EV split in advance I would predict he'd lose the PV, but by less than IOTL.

[cvparty]

290-248

edit: oh wait someone already posted this exact map lol

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

279-259

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

270-268

[Mr. Smith]

270-268

This, but with Wisconsin flipped too.

Pennsylvania as the narrowest Hillary win, NH as the narrowest  for Trump [he won the same counties that Bush Jr won after all].

[Kingpoleon]

CO and ME-AL would be pure tossup, and Utah would be very close. I fell hard for what people were saying about Michigan, though.

[TML]

In late October (before the Comey intervention), FiveThirtyEight published an article with five possible election outcomes, including one where Trump wins. Here is the electoral map they had projected under the Trump win scenario:

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

In late October (before the Comey intervention), FiveThirtyEight published an article with five possible election outcomes, including one where Trump wins. Here is the electoral map they had projected under the Trump win scenario:

Surprised they called Wisconsin. I thought VA would go Republican before WI.

Wisconsin was the biggest shock to me election night.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Actual results, but with Clinton winning WI/MI

This.

This is Trump's most likely path to re-election as well.  I don't believe Trump will carry MI and WI in 2020, no matter what he does.

[Kingpoleon]

In late October (before the Comey intervention), FiveThirtyEight published an article with five possible election outcomes, including one where Trump wins. Here is the electoral map they had projected under the Trump win scenario:

Surprised they called Wisconsin. I thought VA would go Republican before WI.

Wisconsin was the biggest shock to me election night.

Wait - you though Wisconsin would vote to the left of Michigan and Virginia??

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

In late October (before the Comey intervention), FiveThirtyEight published an article with five possible election outcomes, including one where Trump wins. Here is the electoral map they had projected under the Trump win scenario:

Surprised they called Wisconsin. I thought VA would go Republican before WI.

Wisconsin was the biggest shock to me election night.

Wait - you though Wisconsin would vote to the left of Michigan and Virginia??

I thought these states were the battlegrounds:

== Most Democrat ==

Wisconsin
Michigan
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Nevada
New Hampshire

== Big Gap ==

Colorado
Iowa
North Carolina
Florida
Arizona

== Big Gap ==

Ohio
Alaska

== Big Gap ==

Missouri
Indiana

== Most Republican ==