Iraq's Kurdish parliament overwhelmingly backs Sept 25 independence referendum

[Tender Branson]

ERBIL, Iraq (Reuters) - The parliament of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region approved a plan to hold a referendum on independence on Sept. 25, ignoring Iraqi, Iranian and Turkish opposition as well as U.S and Western concern that the vote could cause new conflicts in the region.

An overwhelming majority of Kurdish MPs raised their hands to approve the plan during the first session held by the parliament since it was suspended two years ago.

The parliament reconvened on Friday in Erbil, the seat of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq.

The central government in Baghdad opposes the plan, as do Iraq’s neighbors Iran and Turkey, which fear that an independent Kurdish state could fuel separatism among their own Kurdish populations.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds/iraqs-kurdish-parliament-backs-sept-25-independence-referendum-idUSKCN1BQ2AV

[TDAS04]

Looks like they have the support of Israel.

In your face a Erdogan!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Looks like they have the support of Israel.

In your face a Erdogan!

Eh, nice. I dislike Netanyahu more and more with every passing day, but this is a great move.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Gorran, who view the current parliamentary session invalid (it was only convened after the big PKK-Gorran tiff disrupted parliamentary procedure a while back, boycotted the vote. Don't know whether this means they are boycotting the referendum as well though.

[hurricanehink]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41419633

92% of the 3 million voters voted "yes" for independence, but countries in the region (sans Israel) aren't having it.

[SoLongAtlas]

US, EU, and UN strongly disapprove of it: http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/26092017

The US should shift to supporting a free Kurdistan. It would be a great (and stable) partner, second to Israel, in the region. The old "support national integrity as it stands" line makes no sense given that the lines were beyond garbage in the first place after Sykes-Picot.

Great result for the Kurds but Turkey and Iraq will shoot it down and are currently going all out to do so. Ultimate worst case scenario: an Iraqi-Kurdish civil war.

Edit: Good list of pros for the US to recognize an independent Kurdistan at http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-u-s-must-support-kurdish-independence/

[MasterJedi]

A free Kurdistan would help stabilize a good part of that region, but then create a sh**tton of other issues. Personally Kurdistan should be created out of all the Kurdish regions in the countries around it.

[AndyHogan14]

Great result for the Kurds but Turkey and Iraq will shoot it down and are currently going all out to do so. Ultimate worst case scenario: an Iraqi-Kurdish civil war.

While a Civil War taking place between the Kurds and the Iraqis is indeed the worst case scenario, I think that such a conflict will be over rather quickly. The Kurds are better trained and much more willing to sacrifice everything to defend their homeland...I think an Iraqi-Kurdish conflict would be very similar to the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, and the Kurds may end up with more land than they hold now (perhaps to be used as a bargaining chip with Baghdad).

Also, an interesting take on the Kurdish question from an Israeli perspective:
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.814563

[Tintrlvr]

Great result for the Kurds but Turkey and Iraq will shoot it down and are currently going all out to do so. Ultimate worst case scenario: an Iraqi-Kurdish civil war.

While a Civil War taking place between the Kurds and the Iraqis is indeed the worst case scenario, I think that such a conflict will be over rather quickly. The Kurds are better trained and much more willing to sacrifice everything to defend their homeland...I think an Iraqi-Kurdish conflict would be very similar to the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, and the Kurds may end up with more land than they hold now (perhaps to be used as a bargaining chip with Baghdad).

Also, an interesting take on the Kurdish question from an Israeli perspective:
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.814563

One-on-one, Iraq would get curbstomped, and they know better. So the only way an actual war happens is if Iraq gets Iran and/or Turkey (probably just Iran since I doubt Iraq trusts Turkey to operate in Iraqi Kurdistan) to intervene on its behalf as well, which would be ugly.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A free Kurdistan would help stabilize a good part of that region, but then create a sh**tton of other issues. Personally Kurdistan should be created out of all the Kurdish regions in the countries around it.

That would truly cause chaos on an unimaginable scale.

[Blue3]

A free Kurdistan would help stabilize a good part of that region, but then create a sh**tton of other issues. Personally Kurdistan should be created out of all the Kurdish regions in the countries around it.

That would truly cause chaos on an unimaginable scale.

I think you underestimate our imagination

[RodPresident]

Which position would be taken by Sunni Iraqis? Support Kurdish independence or join forces with Iran-Syria-Turkey alliance?

[Tintrlvr]

Which position would be taken by Sunni Iraqis? Support Kurdish independence or join forces with Iran-Syria-Turkey alliance?

I think it is very unlikely that Turkey is permitted to intervene militarily on Iraqi soil (Iran, and by extension Iraq, are very suspicious of them, for good reason).

Syria, even once the remnants of ISIS are finally eliminated, will be in no position to assist Iraq and Iran, either, as Idlib province is still in revolt, and Syria needs its own Kurdish population to stay at least somewhat loyal. The Syrian Kurds are not fans at all of the Iraqi Kurdish government, but they wouldn't keep their tentative alliance with the Syrian government if Syria were fighting the Iraqi Kurds actively.

Therefore, any fighting would be Iran+Iraq vs. the Iraqi Kurds, with Turkey maybe supplying various Iraqi Turkmen forces fighting the Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan but not intervening directly or directly supporting the Iran-Iraq alliance.

The Iraqi Arab Sunnis want absolutely nothing to do with Iran or the central Iraqi (Shiite) government. They also would not want to be a part of a Kurd-dominated state. However, I could see them forming their own separatist movement that operated in alliance with the Iraqi Kurds, and I doubt many Iraqi Arab Sunnis in Iraqi Kurdistan would resist the Kurdish government (most would probably try to relocate to the Iraqi Arab Sunni territories).

The Syrian Kurds were remarkably successful at convincing some Syrian Arab Sunnis to join them, so I suppose it's not out of the question that some Iraqi Arab Sunnis would feel similarly. Much more likely than that Iraqi Arab Sunnis fight alongside Iranians or Iraqi Shiites. The Iraqi Kurds have at least managed to get the larger of the two Iraqi Christian parties on their side, so they do have some support outside of the Kurdish community.

[DavidB.]

The fact that the U.S. doesn't support this is another sign that the Trump presidency has been hijacked by establishmentarians.