MT-AL 2018 Thread

[Bidenworth2020]

I could see Gianforte winning by 10+points. discuss.

[SATW]

no, it wont.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Depends on if Dems seriously try for it or not.

[Mr. Smith]

Probably. Wouldn't shock me if a reverse 2010 happened and kicked Gianforte out.

He barely pulled out against an aged folk musician with no money for goodness sake, despite the vast array of help.

My guess however, is 4-6 point win, 5-8 if another Mark Wicks shows up.

[MT Treasurer]

Can you turn this into a 2018 MT-AL thread, btw?

Thanks.

So...

Billings lawyer John Heenan (D) is running against Gianforte

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

[Bidenworth2020]

Can you turn this into a 2018 MT-AL thread, btw?

Thanks.

So...

Billings lawyer John Heenan (D) is running against Gianforte

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

no prob

so which of these would have a higher chance of winning ya think?

[MT Treasurer]

so which of these would have a higher chance of winning ya think?

As for Kier... I think he would probably be a slightly stronger candidate than Heenan (the latter would definitely fire up the base and might come across as very authentic, which matters a lot, but I think he'd struggle to get the last 2%-4% he needs to win). In any case, I'd say this race is Lean R, but I'm skeptical that there will be that many Tester/Gianforte voters. Gianforte has a very low ceiling but also a relatively high floor. Democrats shouldn't underestimate him again, but he's obviously not some unbeatable titan either. Gun to my head, he wins by about 5-6 points in the end. 

[MT Treasurer]

There has also been some talk about Tom Woods from Bozeman getting into the race recently, but I'm skeptical that he will actually run. In any case, looks like the campaign is going to heat up early, GF recently wrapped up his statewide listening tour and Heenan (and Kier to a lesser extent, he's certainly in campaign mode) has been touring the state as well.

We'll see if Kelly McCarthy announces his intentions any time soon.

[Bidenworth2020]

any primary challengers yet? to gianassualte?

[krazen1211]

Trump is very popular in Montana and soaring in the polls.

[MT Treasurer]

any primary challengers yet? to gianassualte?

Only Drew Turiano of Helena (real estate investor and Tea Party member), who has run for several other offices before and lost decisively every time. Gianforte won't face a "serious" primary challenge and he's not in danger of losing the primary either, obviously.

[Dr. Arch]

any primary challengers yet? to gianassualte?

Only Drew Turiano of Helena (real estate investor and Tea Party member), who has run for several other offices before and lost decisively every time. Gianforte won't face a "serious" primary challenge and he's not in danger of losing the primary either, obviously.

Obviously??? How can a man who assaulted a reporter not be in any danger from intra-party challenges?

[Heisenberg]

any primary challengers yet? to gianassualte?

Only Drew Turiano of Helena (real estate investor and Tea Party member), who has run for several other offices before and lost decisively every time. Gianforte won't face a "serious" primary challenge and he's not in danger of losing the primary either, obviously.

Obviously??? How can a man who assaulted a reporter not be in any danger from intra-party challenges?

It's Assaultana, so no way does Assaulterforte have any danger of losing.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously??? How can a man who assaulted a reporter not be in any danger from intra-party challenges?

In a relatively small state like MT, challenging an incumbent who I'd wager is quite popular among MT Republican primary voters, has a very R-friendly voting record, a lot of $$$ and a pretty strong campaign organization would be a waste of time and money. Also, most people will probably have forgotten about this incident by the time primary election day kicks off.

[MT Treasurer]

Bozeman Democrat Tom Woods is in

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[MT Treasurer]

Kathleen Williams (D) is in
Lynda Moss (D) is running as well

Just like the Republican Senate primary, this one is going to be very crowded.

[Bidenworth2020]

Kathleen Williams (D) is in
Lynda Moss (D) is running as well

Just like the Republican Senate primary, this one is going to be very crowded.

how will this effect the race?

[MT Treasurer]

how will this effect the race?

I mean, it probably won't, lol. I don't think Williams and Moss can really win the primary or the general. There isn't a clear frontrunner yet, and I definitely expect more Democrats to jump into the race.

Speaking of which... Democrat Jared S. Pettinato, an attorney from Boozman, is running as well.

So now we have six Democrats who have announced that they will run:

- Grant Kier
- John Heenan
- Tom Woods
- Kathleen Williams
- Lynda Moss
- Jared Pettinato

Pat Noonan (D), a former member of the Montana House of Representatives and candidate for the District 3 seat on the Montana Public Service Commission in the 2016 elections, is apparently being recruited as well. He looks a bit as if he were a close relative of Jon Tester.

[Bidenworth2020]

how will this effect the race?

I mean, it probably won't, lol. I don't think Williams and Moss can really win the primary or the general. There isn't a clear frontrunner yet, and I definitely expect more Democrats to jump into the race.

Speaking of which... Democrat Jared S. Pettinato, an attorney from Boozman, is running as well.

So now we have six Democrats who have announced that they will run:

- Grant Kier
- John Heenan
- Tom Woods
- Kathleen Williams
- Lynda Moss
- Jared Pettinato

Pat Noonan (D), a former member of the Montana House of Representatives and candidate for the District 3 seat on the Montana Public Service Commission in the 2016 elections, is apparently being recruited as well. He looks a bit as if he were a close relative of Jon Tester.

you think he has the cunning to ride tester's long coattails?

[MT Treasurer]

you think he has the cunning to ride tester's long coattails?

Nah, no candidate will have any "coattails" in 2018. Also, Montana isn't really a state where the coattail effect is much of a factor anyway. Martz (RIP) vs. O'Keefe and Burns vs. Schweitzer in 2000 are the only two races I can think of where the outcome of the presidential race probably gave a boost to Republicans down-ballot.

That being said, I agree that there won't be THAT many Tester/Gianforte voters.

[Bidenworth2020]

you think he has the cunning to ride tester's long coattails?

Nah, no candidate will have any "coattails" in 2018. Also, Montana isn't really a state where the coattail effect is much of a factor anyway. Martz (RIP) vs. O'Keefe and Burns vs. Schweitzer in 2000 are the only two races I can think of where the outcome of the presidential race probably gave a boost to Republicans down-ballot.

That being said, I agree that there won't be THAT many Tester/Gianforte voters.

true, but in 2016 the SOS candidate that was dem was 7% within winning. this leads me to think that GOV->SoS has the most coattails to each other

[MT Treasurer]

true, but in 2016 the SOS candidate that was dem was 7% within winning. this leads me to think that GOV->SoS has the most coattails to each other

Not sure what race you are talking about here. Republicans won Secretary of State by 14, Auditor by 8, and Superintendent of Public Instruction by 4. They also gained three seats in the State Senate.

GOV was the only statewide race the Republicans lost, so obviously there were no Bullock coattails. Democrats have always done well in down-ballot races historically, so despite Bullock's victory, 2016 wasn't exactly the best year for MT Dems.

[BuckeyeNut]

I hope the NASA kid from the Obama administration -- the one who briefly ran for Congress earlier this year -- runs for this again, or maybe the state legislature.

[Dr. MB]

I think it's competitive for the Democrats, and also because Gianforte's a lunatic.

[MT Treasurer]

Gianforte and Tester are both supporting the Yellowstone mining ban, this should help them a bit next year. Wouldn't be surprised if Park County voted for both Tester and Gianforte next year.