Icelandic Snap Election, 28th Oct 2017

[mileslunn]

So far it looks like the Independence Party has dropped a bit but not too much so I think they will likely be the largest party.  The Left-Green Movement is only up very slightly so wouldn't be surprised if they fall short of the 20% mark.  The SDA is moved up more so will have to see what happens in Reykjavik which tends to come in last.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Independence Party is overperforming and Left-Green Movement under while SDA about as expected so I think a centre-right government or perhaps a grand coalition of some sorts is quite possible.  Off course there still are some outstanding votes but the trend looks good for IP, but Left-Green movement may be able to still find a way to form a government if they can convince the Centre Party to support them.

[MaxQue]

Looks like Independence Party is overperforming and Left-Green Movement under while SDA about as expected so I think a centre-right government or perhaps a grand coalition of some sorts is quite possible.  Off course there still are some outstanding votes but the trend looks good for IP, but Left-Green movement may be able to still find a way to form a government if they can convince the Centre Party to support them.

Nobody wants to deal with the Centre Party, especially not IP.

[Kamala]

I'd say minority government is likely.

The problem for both major poles (Independence vs Left-Greens) is that their possible coalition partners end up not wanting to work with one another.

For example, Left-Greens - SDA - Pirates - Vi∂reisn are decently compatible due to the SDA and Vi∂reish's pro-Europeanism and Pirates' rather wishy-washy referendum position. However, that ends up being 3 seats short (right now) of a majority. Progressive is most likely partner, but it's still very very unlikely that it would tack onto a coalition such as that. PP (economic left-populist but strongly anti-EU) won't join a coalition with both SDA and Vi∂. Centre is too far to the right of all of these coalition parties.

On the other hand, Independence can't govern with both Progressive and Centre, so it ends up having to be a grand coalition of sorts. If it's Independence-Centre-Vi∂reisn, that's 4 seats short of a majority. Pirates would be the most likely partner for them, but once again, very unlikely.

[mileslunn]

I'd say minority government is likely.

The problem for both major poles (Independence vs Left-Greens) is that their possible coalition partners end up not wanting to work with one another.

For example, Left-Greens - SDA - Pirates - Vi∂reisn are decently compatible due to the SDA and Vi∂reish's pro-Europeanism and Pirates' rather wishy-washy referendum position. However, that ends up being 3 seats short (right now) of a majority. Progressive is most likely partner, but it's still very very unlikely that it would tack onto a coalition such as that. PP (economic left-populist but strongly anti-EU) won't join a coalition with both SDA and Vi∂. Centre is too far to the right of all of these coalition parties.

On the other hand, Independence can't govern with both Progressive and Centre, so it ends up having to be a grand coalition of sorts. If it's Independence-Centre-Vi∂reisn, that's 4 seats short of a majority. Pirates would be the most likely partner for them, but once again, very unlikely.

So do you think Independence leader will remain PM or will the Left-Green leader become PM?

[MAINEiac4434]

I could perhaps see Progressive, Centre and People's providing outside support to a VG-SDA-P-V government on certain things.

[MAINEiac4434]

Independence has decent leads in every constituency, but Centre is only 40 votes behind them in North East, the home of Centre Party founder Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson. LG is also less than 200 votes behind Independence.

Another weird result in North East: The People's Front is just nine votes behind Bright Future, which should be an indication of how terrible this night is for BF.

[FredLindq]

Centre-right majority. I told you so. The support for IP is always underestimated...

[PetrSokol]

Composition of new Parliament:

Independence party  16 (-5)
Left-Green Movement 11 (+1)
Social Democratic Aliance 7 (+4)
Progressive Party 8 (+0)
Centre Party 7 (+7)
Pirate Party 6 (-4)
People´s Party 4 (+4)
Restoration 4 (-3)
Bright Future 0 (-4)
People´s Front of Iceland 0 (+0)
Dawn 0 (+0)

[PetrSokol]

Former coalition of Independence+Restoration + Bright Future lost majority (16+4+0=20)

Possible left aliance: Left-Green+Social Democratic+Pirates didnt get the majority (11+7+6=24)

Possible aliance of non-left parties: Independence+ Progressive + Centre + Restoration could have the majority (16+8+7+4=35) but there personal anomisities between Centre and Progressive and diferences between Restoration and other parties about EU...

Even the big coalition of Indepoendence and Left-Green (16+11=27) is without majority....

Both Centre and Restoration have to join the left alliance to give it the majority or Prgressive alone could give the mojority to the left....

[TheSaint250]

If Wikipedia's numbers are right, Independence + Progressive + People's + Reform (16 + 8 + 4 + 4 = 32) could work.  Does anyone know about the People's Party?

[Kamala]

People’s is a left-populist, eurosceptic, anti-immigration party. So, basically, the opposite of Vidreisn.

[JonHawk]

Im thinking a minority government here, but not sure if the Left-Greens will be the head of it.

[TheSaint250]

People’s is a left-populist, eurosceptic, anti-immigration party. So, basically, the opposite of Vidreisn.

Ah ok. Thanks!

I do think it is ironic that the party that is responsible for the elections by leaving the coalition lost all of its seats.

[FredLindq]

Official results gives the centre-right 35. A loss of just one. The Left-Green just gained one seat and the centre-left just gained one.

[Tintrlvr]

Centrist coalition of Independence-SDA-Progressive-Reform seems the most likely result, IMO.

[MAINEiac4434]

Centrist coalition of Independence-SDA-Progressive-Reform seems the most likely result, IMO.

LMAO at the notion of SDA working with Independence.

[Tintrlvr]

Centrist coalition of Independence-SDA-Progressive-Reform seems the most likely result, IMO.

LMAO at the notion of SDA working with Independence.

It's happened in the past. No reason to think it couldn't happen again.

[Kamala]

Centrist coalition of Independence-SDA-Progressive-Reform seems the most likely result, IMO.

LMAO at the notion of SDA working with Independence.

It's happened in the past. No reason to think it couldn't happen again.

SDA was very strongly leftist in this campaign, so I doubt it would actually work with Independence (and I doubt Independence will want to concede so much to work with the SDA.)

[MAINEiac4434]

Centrist coalition of Independence-SDA-Progressive-Reform seems the most likely result, IMO.

LMAO at the notion of SDA working with Independence.

It's happened in the past. No reason to think it couldn't happen again.

The past is not 2017. SDA ran as an urbanist, pro-EU, socialist party. Independence ran as a eutoscptic right-wing populist party. They will not work together.

LG-SDA-P-PP is the most likely.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

SDA deeply damaged the "left" coalition by trolling for an EU entry. When will they realise that the EU ain't that popular, especially seeing as the UK is leaving?

And yeah, the most likely coalition here is LG-SDA-Progressive-Pirate IMO, which I basically predicted before. IP will try and get back - it's a very entitled party that tends to freak out in opposition, and I disagree with the notion they made a particularly right-wing campaign; in fact they made quite a few feints to the left.

[mileslunn]

SDA deeply damaged the "left" coalition by trolling for an EU entry. When will they realise that the EU ain't that popular, especially seeing as the UK is leaving?

And yeah, the most likely coalition here is LG-SDA-Progressive-Pirate IMO, which I basically predicted before. IP will try and get back - it's a very entitled party that tends to freak out in opposition, and I disagree with the notion they made a particularly right-wing campaign; in fact they made quite a few feints to the left.

I realize EU membership would be unpopular amongst those in rural areas, especially the fishing community which would be hurt by it, but I thought amongst younger voters it might be popular as they tend to be more pro EU.  That being said Iceland is already a member of the single market so they enjoy the right of free mobility.  Did any party propose leaving the single market though as even though Iceland is not part of the EU, all EU citizens plus those from Norway, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland enjoy the right to live and work in Iceland and many Eastern Europeans particularly Polish have moved there since Poland joined the EU.  In the UK, it was free mobility of labour that was the primary reason for many voting to leave so even single market is somewhat controversial.  Never mind Iceland must adopt most EU laws with no say whereas with EU membership they would at least have a greater say in the laws they have to adopt anyways.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, rural areas - so the protectionist wing of LG, the Progressive and Centre Parties as well as the newcomer People's Party are favourable to renegotiating the relation with the EU. I doubt this will happen - as I said, the SDA (and the urban wing of LG) are pro-EU (almost fanatically in the former case) so a government will just have to declare that issue a stalemate.

[FredLindq]

Jakobsdottir has got the mandate to form the next guvernment. Probably a s LG-SDA-Progressive-Pirate coalition. However I have read somewere that Progresssives will not join such a coalition. Sounds like the guverment fotmation last time which ended up with another IP guvernment...

[JonHawk]

I can't see Progressive Party joining the Left in this coaltion. It would be fatal for them. Either a minority government with LGA at the heim or a IP-CP-PP-Reform majority.