Icelandic Snap Election, 28th Oct 2017

[mileslunn]

Seems the SDA has jumped a fair bit while the Left-Green Movement is stalling.  Do any here think a centre-right coalition is still possible or does it look like a centre-left one is a foregone conclusion?

[MAINEiac4434]

Seems the SDA has jumped a fair bit while the Left-Green Movement is stalling.  Do any here think a centre-right coalition is still possible or does it look like a centre-left one is a foregone conclusion?

Center-left is a forgone conclusion, probably led by VG, with Piratar and Samfylkingin support. Bright Future's not going to return to government with Bjarni Ben leading it, so if all else VG could rely on them in addition to Piratar and Samfylkingin (though it'd be a "cabinet of chaos").

Not to mention any center-right cabinet would have to include both Progressives and Midflokkurin, which won't work for obvious reasons.

[FredLindq]

In the last poll there actually almosy is a majority for IP, PP, CP and Reform (31 seats, 32 is needed for majority). Sincr Peoples is below the threshold. Is it total impossible for these parties to form a bourgoios guvernment ?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Independence Party deeply despise SDG, who very much burnt their bridges during their time in government. Same with SDG and Progressive, who are at severe loggerheads since the schism. Also Reform don't particularly want another experience in government.

The most likely prop for a left government would be Progressive, who have lost their more rightist wing  to Centre. The LG can use them as a counterbalance for SDA's rather Europhillic leanings.

[FredLindq]

Latest poll from 365 Midlar.

IP 17 (-4)
Left Greens 14 (+4)
Social Dems 10 (+7)
Center 7 (+7)
Pirates 6 (-4)
Reform 5 (-2)
Progressive 4 (-4)
Bright Future 0 (-4)
People's 0 (+/-0)

So a clear centre-right majority off 33...

[Kamala]

Center and Progressive aren’t going to work together ...

[FredLindq]

I wonder if Progressives keeps falling an if IP, Center and Reform would be able to rule.

[MaxQue]

I wonder if Progressives keeps falling an if IP, Center and Reform would be able to rule.

No. Center are hyper-populists while Reform are pro-Europe liberals.

[Kamala]

Most likely is LG-SDA-Pirates. If that's not enough, Vi∂reisn would likely join the coalition, as the SDA are the only other really Europhilic party.

[mileslunn]

Independence Party is starting to recover and Green-Left Movement declining slightly so could a centre-right coalition still be feasible or a centre-left a foregone conclusion.  Nonetheless on best PM, Left-Green leader I heard leads which should help her.  Also SDA is rebounding a fair bit while the Centre Party is doing reasonably well.  Any idea which side they would be more likely to go with.  Philosophically I've heard Independence Party would make more sense but it seems there is a lot of bad blood between the two.

[Dr. MB]

I'm supporting the Pirate Party

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

IP always want to stay in government, and have made a very leftist manifesto clearly feinting to working with LG. They do not want to work with Centre - in fact, nobody wants to work with Centre.

[PetrSokol]

Do you when are the polls open?

[mileslunn]

It is looking increasingly likely the Independence Party will be the largest party again.  Whether they will form government or not hard to say but a centre-right seems easier than centre-left mind with the bitterness of some of the other parties maybe Iceland will get a centre-left, we shall see.

[parochial boy]

How... are people even still voting for IP given the reason this election is happening?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How... are people even still voting for IP given the reason this election is happening?

[mileslunn]

How... are people even still voting for IP given the reason this election is happening?

Probably habit, they are pretty close to the core.  They have the strongest core of any party.

[TheSaint250]

How... are people even still voting for IP given the reason this election is happening?

Didn't the scandal just involve the PM's father, not the PM himself?

(Not trying to be confrontational.  Actually wondering because the whole situation is a little confusing)

[Diouf]

Does anybody have a link to TV coverage. As I understand, there will be a prognosis at 11 CET

[Harlow]

How... are people even still voting for IP given the reason this election is happening?

Didn't the scandal just involve the PM's father, not the PM himself?

(Not trying to be confrontational.  Actually wondering because the whole situation is a little confusing)

The conflict seems to be about how the PM knew about the letter months ago but did not divulge its contents. Bjarni says that if he revealed it earlier, it would have been illegal. But the other coalition parties viewed it as a breach of trust.

[mileslunn]

Do they have exit polls?

[TheSaint250]

How... are people even still voting for IP given the reason this election is happening?

Didn't the scandal just involve the PM's father, not the PM himself?

(Not trying to be confrontational.  Actually wondering because the whole situation is a little confusing)

The conflict seems to be about how the PM knew about the letter months ago but did not divulge its contents. Bjarni says that if he revealed it earlier, it would have been illegal. But the other coalition parties viewed it as a breach of trust.

But what does the letter have to do with the PM? I mean, he didn't endorse it as far as I know.  Wasn't it only his father's thing?

Also, thank you for getting back to me with a response

[PetrSokol]

http://www.ruv.is/ruv

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/elections2017/

[Sestak]

South results so far have Independence lagging behind their 2016 mark, Left-Green rising a little bit, and Center at about 14%.