Icelandic Snap Election, 28th Oct 2017

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The adventure of Icelandic politics continues on its wild ride. The government of Bjarni Benediktsson has proven short lived owing to a scandal involving BB'z father writing a recommendation of letter to a paedophile that the government may be aware of. Parties include (apologies for mangling names and leaving out accents):

Independence Party: the traditional party of Iceland's urban well-to-do, and a remarkably powerful one - something like fifteen percent of the electorate are paid members iirc and with a cosy relationship with Iceland's media proprietors. Was left highly exposed during the financial disaster, and paid a (brief) electoral price, before entering into a PP-led government in 2013, and regaining the PM spot under BB last year when that government fell due to Panama.

Left-Greens - a formation of these who rejected the consolidation of the left-leaning factions of the Althing into the Blair-aping SDA. Like many post-eurocommunist projects, a highly splintered group between sexed-up social democrats and true believers in Marxism. Joined the SDA led post-crisis coalition government, which while winning international plaudits for charging bankers with crimes, led to criticism amongst the party's memberbase, especially as the party's then leader acted as a fairly austere Minister of Finance.  Lost a lot of votes in 2013, but built them back at the eleventh hour before last election under popular leader Katrin Jacobsdittir.

Pirate - an outgrowth of the international Pirate movement, the Icelandic party confounded fellow Pirate Party branches by  being popular and not immediately collapsing under scrutiny. For a long period during the last government, was riding high in the polls under "Pirate Queen"  Brigitta Jonsdittir: something that rather unsettled the party itself, given that much of the cadre were opposed to even participating in government/making coalition deals with left or right, and instead acting as a sort of permanent parliamentary opposition).  Decided to make their election campaign solely focused on approving the crowdsourced leftist constitution from the SDA-lG era, which was not a great move (unless they wanted to scupper their chances). There numbers fell during the campaign, makingly to LG and the new rigjt-liberals Reform.

Progressive - the equivalent of Scandinavian Centre parties, being agrarian, rural and populist. In 2013, took a hilariously shameless approach centred around making "deals" that would somehow write off the huge amount of household debt held by Icelanders, something which they did not do and led to the government, under noted fat idiot SDG, being rather unpopular. Luckily for them, they had an excuse to oust him early due to his ensnarement in the Panama Papers, and replaced him with some guy. Note: as Iceland lack a proper right populist party, PP are quite willing to adopt the role of need be irt immigration etc.

Reform - liberal and europhillic split from Independence that appeared in time for the 2016 election. Given that Brexit has led to EU membership a nonstarter for Iceland (even more than it was already), has downplayed the issue lately, but acts as a less industry friendly (i.e. 'crony capitalist)  alternative to Independence, with its links to smelters, fishing quota multimillionaires etc. Has joined with the current Independence government, where they have mixed reviews.

Bright Future - ironically a party with a very murky future. Emerged from former joke turned popular municipal party Best Party, the venture into national politics initially was a disaster full of chancers who nearly ousted the original cadre of anarchic non-politicians in favour of becoming just another liberal party. They were beaten back by the eccentric looking Ottarr Proppe, who looks very much like your standard bearded Nordic. Also joined the conservative government, which has alienated their more left-leaning voters.

SDA - the great project that was supposed to unite the Icelandic left last election saw a disaster as steady competition from all corners - the popular LG's, the Pirates and the two liberal parties all taking bites out of the party, leaving it with a paltry three seats. For whatever reason, the SDA is obsessed with joining the EU, a passion not shared by the Icelandic population.

People's - a leftist, protectionist and populist party that was just under the threshold last time. Strong focus on disabled rights, and led by a blind woman.

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Current polls indicate that Independence are in the high 20's but their two minor coalition partners (especially Bright Future) may not pass the threshold. The Progressives and Pirates both are drawing level to their last Election results (10 percent and 14 percent respectively). lG have seen an upswing to the low twenties (briefly overtaking IP in February), while SDA and (most recently) People's have swing up to 10 percent.

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Pirate leader Brigitta Jonsdittir will not stand, passing her mantle to her deep enemy Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson, which is in pratcice a shift right (as in Brigitta was identifiably a leftist, while Helgi is more associated with the "neither left nor right, just anti-establishment" approach of Piratism).

People's - a leftist, protectionist and populist party that was just under the threshold last time. Strong focus on disabled rights, and led by a blind woman.

Could you elaborate a little bit about their focus on disabled rights?

Iceland has been making the news in Evangelical circles due to their eliminating Downs Syndrome via abortion, so I'm intrigued by this new party.

sorry, I'm not sure they've commented on that case (at least I can't find anything with Google Translate). But they are relatively unorthodox as a left0wing party, so who knows?

Looking at the polls now looks like less stability.  Could we have a repeat of the Netherlands which had an election on March 15, 2017 and still doesn't yet have a government in place?

Probably not - ICeland doesn't have a PVV, so all parties could realistically enter a government. Some have conditions, like the Pirates really want the constitutional reform completed, but it's fair game elsewhere.

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Election will be on the 28th October.

First poll since the government fell is as follows (rounded to nearest whole number, because decimals)

IP 23
Left Greens 23
Pirates 14
People's 11
Progressive 10
Bright Future 7
Reform 5
Social Dems 5

That's a fall for IP, a rise for the liberal parties (this election may save them as less partisan IP voters head off away from the scandal plagued Bjarni) and a very odd, presumably anomalous collapse for SDA to threshold level.

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Much of the right of PP have defected along with SDG to his new Centre Party.

As for People's, a lot of populist right parties are (imo) erroneously described as having a leftist economic agenda, but People's fits the bill more than, say, FN or AfD.

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Shock poll here.

LG 28.6 (20)
Pirates 11.4 (8 )
SDA 10.5 (7)

IP 22.3 (15)
PP 5.5 (3)

Centre Party 8.9 (6)

People's Party 5.8 (4)

Below threshold:

Viðreisn 3.0
BF 2.6
Others 1.4

Thta would be a prettty safe LG-Pirate-SDA government, unless the Pirate's relative turn ti the right means they refuse to work in a leftist government,

The success of SDG really baffles me. I mean its obvious what niche he's exploiting; but do any people find SDG an appealling figure?

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A - BF
B - progress
C - reform
D - IP
F - people's
P - pirates
M - centre (SDG)
S - SDA
V- Left Greens

Pirates starting to fall, IP has a small hit cause Bjarni Ben was involved in a scandal involving Glitnir (one of Iceland's blown up banks), but they have a hard floor so won't be felt too much damage. Chances of a right wing government looking improbable with these numbers.

Meanwhile SDA have been having a good election, nabbing Jon Gnarr, popular former Mayor of Reykjavik and adopting a cheerful leftist platform.

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Independence Party deeply despise SDG, who very much burnt their bridges during their time in government. Same with SDG and Progressive, who are at severe loggerheads since the schism. Also Reform don't particularly want another experience in government.

The most likely prop for a left government would be Progressive, who have lost their more rightist wing  to Centre. The LG can use them as a counterbalance for SDA's rather Europhillic leanings.

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IP always want to stay in government, and have made a very leftist manifesto clearly feinting to working with LG. They do not want to work with Centre - in fact, nobody wants to work with Centre.

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SDA deeply damaged the "left" coalition by trolling for an EU entry. When will they realise that the EU ain't that popular, especially seeing as the UK is leaving?

And yeah, the most likely coalition here is LG-SDA-Progressive-Pirate IMO, which I basically predicted before. IP will try and get back - it's a very entitled party that tends to freak out in opposition, and I disagree with the notion they made a particularly right-wing campaign; in fact they made quite a few feints to the left.

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Yes, rural areas - so the protectionist wing of LG, the Progressive and Centre Parties as well as the newcomer People's Party are favourable to renegotiating the relation with the EU. I doubt this will happen - as I said, the SDA (and the urban wing of LG) are pro-EU (almost fanatically in the former case) so a government will just have to declare that issue a stalemate.

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The fact that the right-wing of PP have joined Centre should make it easier for them to join a left government. The hard thing will be persuading SDA to cool it with the EU talk for a few years.

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I can't see Progressive Party joining the Left in this coaltion. It would be fatal for them. Either a minority government with LGA at the heim or a IP-CP-PP-Reform majority.

PP will never work with Centre Party.

But they will work with Leftist LGA? Dont see that happening. Especially in a coalition government

Pretty easily. If anything, it will be harder to get them to fit in with SDA.

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The PP voter base - especially this year - is more like the Norwegian Centre Party; rural, Eurosceptic, protectionist, eager for public spending and decentralisation, vaguely attracted to populism and not particularly wedded to idealogy.

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I'm going to assume a LG-IP-SDA grand coalition now.

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Katrina wants to be PM, and the Icelandic media believe she has more leverage than Bjarni atm.

Some demands to join coalition:

Reform: will only join coalition if EU talks are reopened, which means they will be hard to join in any government with PP, Centre or People's.

People's: want a large increase in personal allowance, that would rule out agreement with more 'fiscally conservative' parties.

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Yeah you were right: it turned out to be an LG-PP-IP government that won the government. This may irritate LG's urban leftist wing (and LG seems to have suffered two defections already).