Icelandic Snap Election, 28th Oct 2017

[Kamala]

Center and Progressive aren’t going to work together ...

[Kamala]

Most likely is LG-SDA-Pirates. If that's not enough, Vi∂reisn would likely join the coalition, as the SDA are the only other really Europhilic party.

[Kamala]

I'd say minority government is likely.

The problem for both major poles (Independence vs Left-Greens) is that their possible coalition partners end up not wanting to work with one another.

For example, Left-Greens - SDA - Pirates - Vi∂reisn are decently compatible due to the SDA and Vi∂reish's pro-Europeanism and Pirates' rather wishy-washy referendum position. However, that ends up being 3 seats short (right now) of a majority. Progressive is most likely partner, but it's still very very unlikely that it would tack onto a coalition such as that. PP (economic left-populist but strongly anti-EU) won't join a coalition with both SDA and Vi∂. Centre is too far to the right of all of these coalition parties.

On the other hand, Independence can't govern with both Progressive and Centre, so it ends up having to be a grand coalition of sorts. If it's Independence-Centre-Vi∂reisn, that's 4 seats short of a majority. Pirates would be the most likely partner for them, but once again, very unlikely.

[Kamala]

People’s is a left-populist, eurosceptic, anti-immigration party. So, basically, the opposite of Vidreisn.

[Kamala]

Centrist coalition of Independence-SDA-Progressive-Reform seems the most likely result, IMO.

LMAO at the notion of SDA working with Independence.

It's happened in the past. No reason to think it couldn't happen again.

SDA was very strongly leftist in this campaign, so I doubt it would actually work with Independence (and I doubt Independence will want to concede so much to work with the SDA.)

[Kamala]

I can't see Progressive Party joining the Left in this coaltion. It would be fatal for them. Either a minority government with LGA at the heim or a IP-CP-PP-Reform majority.

PP will never work with Centre Party.