Icelandic Snap Election, 28th Oct 2017

[mileslunn]

Looking at the polls now looks like less stability.  Could we have a repeat of the Netherlands which had an election on March 15, 2017 and still doesn't yet have a government in place?

[mileslunn]

The most recent poll shows the Left-Green movement has jumped into a seven point lead.  Whether this is a trend or a blip tough to know, I guess we will need to wait for others to come out with numbers to confirm one way or another.


D 23

V 30

P 10

B 11

C 6

A 3

S 8

F 9

[mileslunn]

Another poll shows Left-Green Movement ahead but only by 1.2 points as opposed to 7 over the Independence Party.  The one prediction I will make is that Iceland will not have a government before the new year as it looks like trying to form a coalition will be chaos.

[mileslunn]

Seems the SDA has jumped a fair bit while the Left-Green Movement is stalling.  Do any here think a centre-right coalition is still possible or does it look like a centre-left one is a foregone conclusion?

[mileslunn]

Independence Party is starting to recover and Green-Left Movement declining slightly so could a centre-right coalition still be feasible or a centre-left a foregone conclusion.  Nonetheless on best PM, Left-Green leader I heard leads which should help her.  Also SDA is rebounding a fair bit while the Centre Party is doing reasonably well.  Any idea which side they would be more likely to go with.  Philosophically I've heard Independence Party would make more sense but it seems there is a lot of bad blood between the two.

[mileslunn]

It is looking increasingly likely the Independence Party will be the largest party again.  Whether they will form government or not hard to say but a centre-right seems easier than centre-left mind with the bitterness of some of the other parties maybe Iceland will get a centre-left, we shall see.

[mileslunn]

How... are people even still voting for IP given the reason this election is happening?

Probably habit, they are pretty close to the core.  They have the strongest core of any party.

[mileslunn]

Do they have exit polls?

[mileslunn]

So far it looks like the Independence Party has dropped a bit but not too much so I think they will likely be the largest party.  The Left-Green Movement is only up very slightly so wouldn't be surprised if they fall short of the 20% mark.  The SDA is moved up more so will have to see what happens in Reykjavik which tends to come in last.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Independence Party is overperforming and Left-Green Movement under while SDA about as expected so I think a centre-right government or perhaps a grand coalition of some sorts is quite possible.  Off course there still are some outstanding votes but the trend looks good for IP, but Left-Green movement may be able to still find a way to form a government if they can convince the Centre Party to support them.

[mileslunn]

I'd say minority government is likely.

The problem for both major poles (Independence vs Left-Greens) is that their possible coalition partners end up not wanting to work with one another.

For example, Left-Greens - SDA - Pirates - Vi∂reisn are decently compatible due to the SDA and Vi∂reish's pro-Europeanism and Pirates' rather wishy-washy referendum position. However, that ends up being 3 seats short (right now) of a majority. Progressive is most likely partner, but it's still very very unlikely that it would tack onto a coalition such as that. PP (economic left-populist but strongly anti-EU) won't join a coalition with both SDA and Vi∂. Centre is too far to the right of all of these coalition parties.

On the other hand, Independence can't govern with both Progressive and Centre, so it ends up having to be a grand coalition of sorts. If it's Independence-Centre-Vi∂reisn, that's 4 seats short of a majority. Pirates would be the most likely partner for them, but once again, very unlikely.

So do you think Independence leader will remain PM or will the Left-Green leader become PM?

[mileslunn]

SDA deeply damaged the "left" coalition by trolling for an EU entry. When will they realise that the EU ain't that popular, especially seeing as the UK is leaving?

And yeah, the most likely coalition here is LG-SDA-Progressive-Pirate IMO, which I basically predicted before. IP will try and get back - it's a very entitled party that tends to freak out in opposition, and I disagree with the notion they made a particularly right-wing campaign; in fact they made quite a few feints to the left.

I realize EU membership would be unpopular amongst those in rural areas, especially the fishing community which would be hurt by it, but I thought amongst younger voters it might be popular as they tend to be more pro EU.  That being said Iceland is already a member of the single market so they enjoy the right of free mobility.  Did any party propose leaving the single market though as even though Iceland is not part of the EU, all EU citizens plus those from Norway, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland enjoy the right to live and work in Iceland and many Eastern Europeans particularly Polish have moved there since Poland joined the EU.  In the UK, it was free mobility of labour that was the primary reason for many voting to leave so even single market is somewhat controversial.  Never mind Iceland must adopt most EU laws with no say whereas with EU membership they would at least have a greater say in the laws they have to adopt anyways.

[mileslunn]

So will the Independence Party then get a chance to try and put together a coalition?  It would seem wise to let them have a try although not sure how easy.  If no one can put one together does another election get called?

[mileslunn]

I'm going to assume a LG-IP-SDA grand coalition now.

So I assume IP being the largest party would head it? Or perhaps they should go with SDA as a compromise based on where they stand on the spectrums.  Any chance of another election?