Icelandic Snap Election, 28th Oct 2017

[MAINEiac4434]

I support Bright Future only because their leader looks like this:

[MAINEiac4434]

If I'm being honest, I'm hoping for some combination of Pirates, Left Greens and Social Democrats in the next government.

[MAINEiac4434]

Seems the SDA has jumped a fair bit while the Left-Green Movement is stalling.  Do any here think a centre-right coalition is still possible or does it look like a centre-left one is a foregone conclusion?

Center-left is a forgone conclusion, probably led by VG, with Piratar and Samfylkingin support. Bright Future's not going to return to government with Bjarni Ben leading it, so if all else VG could rely on them in addition to Piratar and Samfylkingin (though it'd be a "cabinet of chaos").

Not to mention any center-right cabinet would have to include both Progressives and Midflokkurin, which won't work for obvious reasons.

[MAINEiac4434]

I could perhaps see Progressive, Centre and People's providing outside support to a VG-SDA-P-V government on certain things.

[MAINEiac4434]

Independence has decent leads in every constituency, but Centre is only 40 votes behind them in North East, the home of Centre Party founder Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson. LG is also less than 200 votes behind Independence.

Another weird result in North East: The People's Front is just nine votes behind Bright Future, which should be an indication of how terrible this night is for BF.

[MAINEiac4434]

Centrist coalition of Independence-SDA-Progressive-Reform seems the most likely result, IMO.

LMAO at the notion of SDA working with Independence.

[MAINEiac4434]

Centrist coalition of Independence-SDA-Progressive-Reform seems the most likely result, IMO.

LMAO at the notion of SDA working with Independence.

It's happened in the past. No reason to think it couldn't happen again.

The past is not 2017. SDA ran as an urbanist, pro-EU, socialist party. Independence ran as a eutoscptic right-wing populist party. They will not work together.

LG-SDA-P-PP is the most likely.

[MAINEiac4434]

I can't see Progressive Party joining the Left in this coaltion. It would be fatal for them. Either a minority government with LGA at the heim or a IP-CP-PP-Reform majority.

PP will never work with Centre Party.

But they will work with Leftist LGA? Dont see that happening. Especially in a coalition government

Pretty easily. If anything, it will be harder to get them to fit in with SDA.

Really? Not sure how the PP voters will take it, unless the LGA government ends up being more "centrist".

VG is more rural-based, like PP, while the SDA is more urban. Importantly, both the PP and VG are Eurosceptic and populist.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm going to assume a LG-IP-SDA grand coalition now.

I dunno, the IP and SDA sort of hate each other.

[MAINEiac4434]

Yeah you were right: it turned out to be an LG-PP-IP government that won the government. This may irritate LG's urban leftist wing (and LG seems to have suffered two defections already).

This only helps the SDA and Pirates imho.