Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

Yomuri map on Tokyo districts



It has 11 safe LDP seats and 1 safe KP seat.  It also has 5 LDP-HP marginals and 8 LDP-CDP marginals.  This map matches that of my exactly with the exception of 18th districts which I also have as a LDP-CDP marginal instead of a safe LDP seat.  On the flit side I expect the 22nd district to be safe LDP instead of LDP-CDP marginal due to the JCP candidate.  Same is true for 19th but I do expect it to be close in the 19th although with CDP losing due to the JCP candidate.  I expect the marginals to be split 50/50 between LDP and the opposition party.

[jaichind]

TBS/JNN poll (diff relative to early Sept 2017)

Abe approval/disapproval  48.7(+0.6)/49.2(-1.3)



Party support
LDP    32.8(+0.4)
KP       3.8(+1.0)
JRP      1.8(+0.7)
HP       5.2 (new)
DP       1.2 (-5.2)
CDP     7.3 (new)
SDP     0.5 (-0.3)
JCP      3.2 (-1.0)

CDP clearly drawing support from DP JCP and SDP.  HP mostly from DP and LDP.  Support for parties higher across the board due to elections.

[jaichind]

Seat adjustment with JCP is critical to CDP success.  Out of 42 CDP candidates that are running without a JCP candidate, I expect CDP to win 16 of them.  Out of 21 CDP candidates running with a JCP candidate in the fray I expect the CDP to win none of them.

[jaichind]

Likewise, having a CDP or ex-DP independent running is the kiss of death for a  HP candidate.  Out of 48 such seats I expected HP to win only 1 of them.   Out of 151 HP candidates running that does not have HP or an ex-DP independent running against them, I expect HP to win 37 of them which is not a great run rate but still some wins.  

[jaichind]

The two most interesting districts which feature 3 way races are

神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th.  Here the independent incumbent  浅尾 慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) is running for re-election.  Asao was in the DPJ but joined YP in 2009 and was the leader of YP in 2014 when YP dissolved.   He ran for re-election in 2014 as an opposition consensus candidate where DPJ and JIP did not run against him and beat the LDP candidate

2014
United Opposition candidate 48.1%
LDP                                    32.5%
JCP                                    10.6%
Green backed Ind.                8.8%

In 2016  Asao took a more pro-LDP stance and right before the 2017 election applied to join LDP.  In the end LDP went with its 2014 candidate and Asao ran as a LDP rebel.   CDP and HP are both in the race but HP is a nobody and will come in a poor 4th.  Right now the election most likely is a close 3 way race with Asao with a slight lead.

LDP rebel    32%
CDP           30%
LDP            28%
HP              10%


Okinawa 1st

Back in 2014 all Center-Left anti-base bloc united under one banner in Okinawa and swept all 4 seats.  In Okinawa 1st JCP ran for the United Center-Left alliance bloc.  JIP also ran as a Center-Right anti-base party while LDP was pro-base.  The result was JIP splitting the anti-JCP vote to allow the JCP to win.

JCP     39.8%  (backed by DPJ SDP PLP Green Party and OSMP)
LDP     36.6%
JIP      23.6%

Now JCP will run again for the Center-Left anti-base bloc.  LDP will run as the pro-based party and HP will back JRP as the Center-Right anti-base party.  The vote shares between the three blocs have not changed that much so it will be a close race between JCP and LDP with JRP perhaps gaining a bit from 2014 due to support from HP.

[jaichind]

FNN/Sankei poll also has CDP surge at the expense of HP (diff vs sept)

Abe approval fell to be under water and Koike approval had a dramatic fall.

Abe approval/disapproval  42.5(-7.8  )/46.3(+6.3)
Koike approval/disapproval 39.2(-27.2)/51.7(+24.3)





Party support is

LDP   34.5 (-3.5)
KP      5.4 (+1.8 )
JRP    3.3 (+1.7)
HP     9.5 (new)
DP     0.7 (-5.7)
CDP  11.6 (new)
SDP   0.5 (-0.2)
JCP    3.6 (-0.9)

CDP gaining from DP SDP and JCP.  HP gaining from LDP and DP.  CDP level of support is shocking.




PR vote has a CDP surge

LDP     32.9
KP        8.5
PJK      0.9  (PJK only running in two PR zones so they will not get this vote share)
JRP      4.8
HP      15.0
CDP    14.6
SDP     1.0
JCP      5.4



Back in 2014 Sankei  poll had plus real results

LDP    37.5%  -> 33.1%
KP        8.2%  -> 13.7%
FPG      1.5%  ->   2.7%
JIP      10.7%  -> 15.7%
DPJ     13.2%  -> 18.3%
PLP       1.9%  ->  1.9%
SDP      1.4%  ->  2.5%
JCP       5.2%  -> 11.4%

[jaichind]

FNN projection

LDP to get majority of 233 for sure.  Could get to its pre-election size (~290) if one adds in pro-LDP independents.   
HP in big trouble in Tokyo, will struggle to get to pre-election size of 57
CDP seat share to surge and will compete with HP for the position of largest opposition party
KP will struggle to get 34 seats it had before the election is called
JCP will struggle to get 21 seats it had before the election is called
JRP is in trouble in Osaka and will lose seats from the 14 it has before the election is called

[jaichind]

New PR vote curvewith Sankei poll.  All parties rising due to election campaign.  CDP gaining from HP.  What is interesting is CDP is now much higher than DP was when the campaign started.



Abe approval/disapproval curve stabilizing around net -5%

[jaichind]

Sankei's poll on Koike approval show a gender gap

Overall it is 39.2/51.7

For men it is 36.8/56.6
For women it is 41.5/47.1



It is interesting that HP tends to gave a gender gap where men favor it more than women but the reverse is true for Koike even though Koike is head of HP.

[Lachi]

Sankei's poll also showed that 40.5% would like to see a change in government, as opposed to 50.5% who would like to see the LDP stay in.

Also, wtf, how the hell is the CDP charging up so high, so quickly? Not even I would have said that would ever happened, and I would be a huge partisan hack when it comes to the CDP.

[Lachi]

Also, Sankei is about the most far-right newspaper you will find in Japan, so that makes the results even more shocking.

[jaichind]

Also, Sankei is about the most far-right newspaper you will find in Japan, so that makes the results even more shocking.

I actually find it to be the other way around.  The different papers know what their biases are and often make up for, overdoing it in the process.    In every election cycle the more Left wing media outlets (Asahi and Kyodo) always have a more pro-LDP projection than the Right win media outlets (Nikkei and Sankei).

[jaichind]

Looking at the  Sankei PR vote poll and comparing to the 2014  Sankei PR vote we can group the parties by ruling (LDP, KP), pro-ruling (FPG in 2014, PJK in 2017) and opposition (DPJ JIP SDP PLP JCP in 2014 and HP CDP JRP SDP JCP in 2017) then we get this chart

2014
Ruling bloc   45.7 -> 46.8
pro-Ruling     1.5  ->  2.7
Opposition   32.4  -> 49.8

Now for 2017 we can put in what the polls says and put in a good guess on result given the 2014 biases. 

Ruling bloc   41.4  -> 44.5 (most LDP-PJK marginal vote will flow to LDP)
pro-Ruling     0.9   ->  0.2  (PJK only running in 2 PR sections)
Opposition    40.8  -> 54.5

[Lachi]

NHK poll: Party Support, 10/16



LDP: 32.8 (+1.6)
HP: 5.4 (+.6)
KP: 4.3 (+.5)
JCP: 3.4 (+.7)
CDP: 6.6 (+2.2)
JRP: 1.7 (+.4)
SDP: 0.6 (+.1)
Kokoro: 0.1 (+.1)
No Party: 34.0 (-5.1)
DP: 1.0 (-.6)
LP: 0.2 (+.2)

[Lachi]

NHK Poll: Constitutional Amendment



Agree: 29
Disagree: 22
Don't care (Neither): 40

[Lachi]

Here is the video with more polling results (In Japanese)
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20171016/k10011179591000.html?utm_int=all_side_ranking-social_001

[jaichind]

NHK poll also has Abe Approval/Disapproval at 39(+2)/42(-1).  

This gives LDP an Aoki index of 71.8 (32.8+39).

Historically this sort of number meant defeat against a united non-JCP opposition and a marginal victory against a splintered one.  

In 2000 LDP-KP barely won a majority with a Aoki index of 50.4.  
In 2004 Koizumi barely won the Upper House election against an united non-JCP opposition led by DPJ with an Aoki index of 76.1
In 2007 Abe lost to a united non-JCP opposition led by DPJ with an Aoki index of 69.8
In 2010 DPJ lost the Upper House election against LDP-KP with an Aoki index of 68.8

These numbers does not bode well for LDP-KP whose path to significant victory only lies in the splintered nature of the HP-JCP and DCP vote base.  One wildcard is the DCP-JCP alliance and possible tactical voting between HP and DCP.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll for Tokyo holds grim news for HP.

It has LDP well ahead in 12 seats, KP well ahead in 1, LDP marginally ahead in 7 and LDP-Opposition neck-to-neck in 5.  I am pretty sure the 5 are 3 DCP and 2 HP.

For party support in Tokyo (not PR) it has

LDP     29
KP        4
HP        6
CDP      7
JCP       5

[jaichind]

Latest Mainichi projection

LDP over 300 by itself
HP at most 54 seats, at most 23 district seats of which 10 are quite competitive
CDP around 40 seats
KP will not keep 35 seats from 2014 for sure, will win 9 district seats
JRP hard to keep 14 seats today, LDP ahead in 8 Osaka seats (out of 19 Osaka seats 4 will go to KP, 1 will most likely go to CDP, 1 will go to pro-CDP independent, so if 8 are LDP so that leaves 5 for JRP)
JCP lose seats from 21 from 2014
SDP most likely 1 seat

Chart version of Mainichi projection



If you take their medium guess it comes out to

             District      PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          223         69      292             35.5%
KP               9         22        31             12.5%
JRP              5           6       11               5.5%
HP             17         31       48              17.5%
CDP           13         34       47              19.0%
SDP             1           1         2              1.5%
JCP              1         13       14               8.0%
Ind            20           0       20    most likely something like 4-5 pro-LDP and rest anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Well, if LDP-KP can get to 48% in terms of PR vote and the HP and CDP remain divided in the district seats then this sort of result seems quit possible and in fact likely.

[jaichind]

Sankei's poll also showed that 40.5% would like to see a change in government, as opposed to 50.5% who would like to see the LDP stay in.

Also, wtf, how the hell is the CDP charging up so high, so quickly? Not even I would have said that would ever happened, and I would be a huge partisan hack when it comes to the CDP.

To be fair the question is not "change in government" but "LDP centered administration"  vs "non-LDP centered administration."  The difference is there seems to be a lot of LDP voters that are not so happy with Abe.  They would be for a LDP centered administration even while disapproving of Abe.   How they vote would also be decisive. 

As for CDP surge a lot of it came from JCP and SDP so the CDP vote increase is really cannibalization of the Left.  A couple of weeks ago JCP polling was surging as Left DP voters went their way.  Now CDP took that vote back and are now eating into marginal JCP support.

[jaichind]

FNN projection

LDP to get majority of 233 for sure.  Could get to its pre-election size (~290) if one adds in pro-LDP independents.  
HP in big trouble in Tokyo, will struggle to get to pre-election size of 57
CDP seat share to surge and will compete with HP for the position of largest opposition party
KP will struggle to get 34 seats it had before the election is called
JCP will struggle to get 21 seats it had before the election is called
JRP is in trouble in Osaka and will lose seats from the 14 it has before the election is called

Here is chart version



If you take the medium case it is

LDP     286
KP         33
NPD        1
JRP       10
HP        44
CDP      52
SDP        1
JCP       15
Ind       23   (4-5 are pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)



Back in 2014 they came out with


Which was vs final result

LDP    311   ->   290
KP       32   ->     35
PFG      2    ->       2
JIP      26    ->    41
DPJ     69   ->     73
PLP       2   ->       2
SDP      2   ->       2
JCP     15   ->     21
Ind       6   ->       9

So in 2014 Sankei overestimated LDP and underestimated the third pole party JIP.  That is one ray of hope for HP and JRP since they are third pole parties.  

[jaichind]

Early voting hits 3.86%, a record high

[Vega]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

[jaichind]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.   

[Vega]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.   

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?