Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

山口(Yamaguchi) poll on party support.  Abe is from this prefecture which has always been the most pro-LDP prefecture. 



LDP    51
KP       3
JRP      1
HP       6
CDP     5
SDP     1
JCP      3

[jaichind]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.   

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?

On these topics in Japan it is "we are all Social Democrats now."  Although sometimes Libertarian splinter Third Pole parties like YP (2009-2014) does come along once in a while to challenge this. 

[jaichind]

Former Tokyo governor and famous leader of the Japan Far Right 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintara) surprisingly tweeted  praise for CDP founder and leader of the Japan Center-Left 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) for having political courage.  Of course Ishihara is an enemy of Koike who beat the LDP candidate in 2016 Tokyo governor race.   Ishihara's son and LDP MP 石原 伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) organized that race for the LDP candidate telling Koike not to run for Tokyo Governor.

Ishihara must be taking pleasure at Edano's CDP pulling down HP's electoral prospects, especially in Tokyo.

[Sestak]

Honest question: What are the chances of Abe not winning?

[jaichind]

Honest question: What are the chances of Abe not winning?

Depends on definition of winning.

If winning is LDP-KP majority at 233, then 0%.  If you exclude all the hack projections, my projection of LDP-KP at around 285 is pretty much the most negative for LDP-KP out there. 

If winning is LDP-KP getting enough seats for Abe to continue as PM which would be around 270 the chances are pretty much still near 0%

If winning is LDP-KP getting enough seats for Abe to win re-election as LDP leader in Sept 2018 which would be around 290 then I would have it at around 50/50 shot although rest of the Japanese political discourse has it around 10%

If winning is LDP-KP getting 2/3 majority of 312 then the current Japanese political discourse has it slightly less than 50/50

If winning is LDP-KP getting around the same ratio of seats as 2014 which would be around 320 then the current political discourse has it slightly greater than 50/50.

[jaichind]

Turnout details from NHK poll

Certain to vote + voted early

Total electorate:  61%
Non-Aligned: 48%
Pro-Ruling parties: 70%
Pro-Opposition parties: 77%

[Tintrlvr]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.    

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?

Japanese are generally satisfied with their social support systems, and there is broad consensus on maintaining the status quo with only slight tweaks. Taxes are an area with more potential room for disagreement, but Japan has a relatively flat income distribution, Japan has a relatively progressive tax system for a developed country (top marginal rate income tax rate of 45%, has an estate tax up to 55%, no special treatment for dividends or capital gains, etc.), and there isn't much appetite for radical reconfigurations of the system one way or another.

[Vega]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.    

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?

Japanese are generally satisfied with their social support systems, and there is broad consensus on maintaining the status quo with only slight tweaks. Taxes are an area with more potential room for disagreement, but Japan has a relatively flat income distribution, Japan has a relatively progressive tax system for a developed country (top marginal rate income tax rate of 45%, has an estate tax up to 55%, no special treatment for dividends or capital gains, etc.), and there isn't much appetite for radical reconfigurations of the system one way or another.

Interesting, thanks for the information.

Also, as I don't think it has been mentioned yet, a couple of bigwigs from the DPJ and DP are now with the CDP - Naoto Kan and Banri Kaeida are both minted CDP candidates.

[Lachi]

Turnout details from NHK poll

Certain to vote + voted early

Total electorate:  61%
Non-Aligned: 48%
Pro-Ruling parties: 70%
Pro-Opposition parties: 77%

That's... rather high.

[jaichind]

Projections from political analysts 小林吉弥(Kobayashi Yoshiya) who has an extreme projection of LDP-KP under-performance and a CDP surge on the PR section and 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) who has a more mainstream projection.  



I was able to break down their projection using my method of grouping along with PR seats


For 小林吉弥(Kobayashi Yoshiya) he sees a CDP and JCP surge who tactically vote for HP district candidates to defeat LDP.  HP voters does not seem to reciprocate leading to an more muted result for CDP in the district seats.

              District     PR     Seats        Implied PR vote
LDP          179         65      244             33.0%
KP               9         23        32             13.0%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9           7       16                5.5%
HP             50         23        73              14.0%
CDP           12         36        48              20.0%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         21       22               12.0%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        9           0         9     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  12           0       12      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      0          0         0      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465



For 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) also sees CDP surging past HP int the PR section but has less tactical voting between CDP and HP voting blocs leading to a significant LDP-KP victory although just missing the 2/3 majority.  He also has JCP overperforming expectations.

             District     PR     Seats        Implied PR vote
LDP          211        64       275             32.5%
KP               8         24        32             13.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7           7       16                5.5%
HP             18         28        46              16.5%
CDP           12         32        44              18.0%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         19       20               11.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)      10           0       10     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  14           0       14      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      0          0         0      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

[jaichind]

Turnout details from NHK poll

Certain to vote + voted early

Total electorate:  61%
Non-Aligned: 48%
Pro-Ruling parties: 70%
Pro-Opposition parties: 77%

That's... rather high.

Back in 2014 61% also claimed in the NHK poll that they are certain to vote.  Turnout was 52.7% partly because of a snowstorm. I think turnout will be higher this time even though there seems t be a hurricane coming.  The bad news for LDP is the hurricane seem to be hitting Southern Japan election day vs in 2014 the snowstorm seem to be hitting Northern Japan.

[jaichind]

Paddypower odds

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/world-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=4912714

They have 1/3 for HP to be the second largest party after LDP and 5/1 for CDP to be the second largest party after HP. 

With the recent CDP surge I think this is mis-priced.  While HP is more likely to emerge with more seats than CDP the gap might be that large.

[jaichind]

Average PR curve has CDP almost catching up and overtaking HP

[jaichind]

Latest ニコニコ (NicoNico) projection has LDP-KP going from just below 2/3 to just above 2/3.  NicoNico pretty much has the best projection record last few election cycles.



              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          220        64       284             33.0%
KP               9         25        34             13.5%
JRP              5          7        12                5.5%
HP             18         28       46              16.5%
CDP           12         35       47              19.0%
SDP             1           0         1                1.0%
JCP              1         17       18              10.5%
Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  19           0       19      (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

They mostly dialed back their JRP projection to be inline with other projections.   It also has CDP overtaking HP overall and especially in the PR section. 

They have LDP-KP PR at 46.5% with KP and JCP doing well so they must be expecting a lower turnout.  I insist turnout will be higher and that LDP-KP will be around 45% in PR and with better tactical voting in district seats will see LDP-KP with a lot less seats.

[jaichind]

Hurricane to hit Southern Japan on 10/22

[jaichind]

Turnout by age group since 1967



The 2014 turnout collapse is especially strong with the 30s and 40s age population.  Most of them are disillusioned marginal DPJ voters.

[jaichind]

Shikoku News Agency poll and projection (pretty much like all the others).  I think this is done in conjunction with Kyodo News. 

PR vote which given the CDP numbers seem like it is an older poll

LDP   34.7
KP      8.0
JRP     1.8
HP    14.7
CDP    6.7
SDP    1.9
JCP     3.2

Seat projections  

          low-medium-high
LDP    265～281～296
KP         26～32～37
NPD          0～0～1
JRP         7～13～20
HP         42～52～66
CDP       37～48～58
SDP          1～2～2
JCP       10～14～19
Ind        17～23～28  (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

It has LDP-KP at 313 seats, just over 2/3 majority.

[Lachi]

Isn't Okinawa usually quite anti-LDP though?

[jaichind]

Isn't Okinawa usually quite anti-LDP though?

Yes, but it is small compared to rest of Southern Japan in terms of population.

[jaichind]

Last go2senkyo.com poll does show a shift toward LDP and CDP



PR vote  LDP and CDP increase while HP falls
LDP    ~37
KP       ~7
HP     ~13
CDP   ~20
JCP     ~7



District vote - clear swing toward LDP
LDP    ~42
HP      ~13
CDP    ~15
JCP      ~7



Hope for CDP   Yes/No  ~33/~45



Hope for HP   Yes/No    ~18/~60



Hope for HP (Tokyo)   ~22/~60



Abe approval 50(+4)/50(-4)

[jaichind]

Latest and last JX Tokyo poll



HP is falling further behind as CDP surges

LDP   30(+1)
KP       5(-1)
HP    16(-2)
CDP   23(+5)
JCP     8(+1)

With these numbers I suspect HP might get a total of zero seats in Tokyo FPTP district seats with CDP gaining at least 3-4 seats from DP's 1 last time.

[jaichind]

Tokyo News national projection



LDP    281
KP       34
NPD       1
JRP      15
HP       47
CDP     46
SDP       2
JCP      14
Ind      25  (4-5 pro-LDP rest anti-LDP)

The low JCP numbers seems to suggest high turnout but KP numbers are too good for that.  Most likely a low turnout election plus a bleeding of JCP support over to CDP.

[jaichind]

It is clear that Koike had totally bungled this election and most likely blown any chances she has in the medium and most likely term at becoming PM.  One again Abe timed the election as to eliminate his most dangerous rival before she becomes a threat.  Even if Abe loses his 2/3 majority it is worth it to kill of any chance of Koike becoming a national rival of Abe in 2018. 

Two factors hurt Koike.  The first one which is the timing of the election is not anything Koike could have done anything about.  The main problem here is that she is trapped.  The way to create a splash for HP is for her to take over as leader.  But that leaves open the criticism that she is abandoning the citizens of Tokyo. 

The other factor was something of Koike's own making.  When DP disbanded and asked to join HP en masse to run on the HP ticket Koike insisted on a litmus test on Constitutional reform and refused to admit anyone DP member that had leadership roles of DPJ/DP in the past.  What that is logical to create a brand for HP and go after the LDP Center-Right vote what she could have done was to make a deal with these DP members that she would not admit.  She could have said "we cannot admit you but, wink wink, you can run as an Independent and HP will run a candidate against you."   She did this for some DP members but did not for a large number of them forcing them to form and gather behind CDP which now is eating into HP's space.  HP lost both ways.  HP failed to win a significant amount of the LDP vote and lost the Center-Left and now Center space to CDP.

[Boston Bread]

The first thing I think of when I read "Party of Hope" is Danganronpa

[Zuza]

One again Abe timed the election as to eliminate his most dangerous rival before she becomes a threat.

Who was the rival in 2014?