Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

4PM chart on turnout relative to 2014.  Purple is increase on early voting (although missing the last day of early voting data.)  Green is decrease (usually) for in day voting.



With net turnout at

[jaichind]

Another rule of Japanese elections is "LDP rebels usually never hurts LDP and in fact usually hurts opposition."  There are 12 seats where there is a serious LDP rebel or 2 LDP candidates are running.  In all 12 it seems either the LDP candidate or the LDP rebel will win, and in many cases with the two LDP candidates in the top two positions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would JRP vote for a revision of the Constitution?

[Lachi]

Would JRP vote for a revision of the Constitution?

almost certainly yes.

[jaichind]

Updated turnout chart

           2017    2014      2012
11:00  12.24     11.08　14.03
14:00  21.83     22.66　27.40
16:00  26.31     29.11　34.87
18:00  29.99     34.98　41.77
19:30　            37.72　45.42
20:00               40.01   47.82
Early   20.01     12.65   11.50
Final  　            52.66　59.32

Turnout at 50% right now.  Looks like total turnout will be around 53%-53.5%, slightly above 2014.

Link to data is

http://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/48sansokuhou/index.html

[jaichind]

Would JRP vote for a revision of the Constitution?

Yes.  Not necessary KP though.  It will depend on the exact nature of the change.

[jaichind]

In day voting numbers at 6pm by prefecture when compared to 2014.  Most of the higher drop offs are in non-competitive prefectures or Southern prefectures which are hit by hurricane harder than the North.

[Lachi]

Just asking, has the stream started yet?

[jaichind]

Just asking, has the stream started yet?

Not working for me yet.  But I suspect will start any min.

[jaichind]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

Now live

[Lachi]

That's... rather low for in day voting, 29.99

[jaichind]

LDP 253 - 300
HP   38-59
CDP  44-67

LDP-KP  281-336

[Lachi]

Wow, they can fill in seats extremely quickly, already down to 174 remaining.

[Lachi]

Wow, JCP got screwed.

[Lachi]

Revisionist have a 2/3 majority accoring to the exit poll.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, they can fill in seats extremely quickly, already down to 174 remaining.

more likely is that those are the safe seats without any real opposition to talk about.

[jaichind]

Wow, JCP got screwed.

Looks like a lot of their votes went to CDP

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  183
KP     25
JRP     4
HP    29
CDP  32
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is

LDP          199
KP              23
JRP              5
HP             32
CDP           32
SDP             1
JCP              7
Ind(LDP)      1
Ind(OPPN)  14

[Oryxslayer]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  183
KP     25
JRP     4
HP    29
CDP  32
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is

LDP          199
KP              23
JRP              5
HP             32
CDP           32
SDP             1
JCP              7
Ind(LDP)      1
Ind(OPPN)  14

Depends upon what they think is safe/competitive...

[Lachi]

HP can get screwed, vote splitting bastards.

[jaichind]

HP can get screwed, vote splitting bastards.

It seems so.  But looking at the early calls my guess is that unless LDP-KP over-performs on the PR section it is unlikely LDP-KP gets to 310 for 2/3 majority.

[Lachi]

HP can get screwed, vote splitting bastards.

It seems so.  But looking at the early calls my guess is that unless LDP-KP over-performs on the PR section it is unlikely LDP-KP gets to 310 for 2/3 majority

Isshin might get them over it, meaning they could revise the constitution...

[jaichind]

HP can get screwed, vote splitting bastards.

It seems so.  But looking at the early calls my guess is that unless LDP-KP over-performs on the PR section it is unlikely LDP-KP gets to 310 for 2/3 majority

Isshin would get them over it, meaning they could revise the constitution...

Of course but the 2/3 majority is for LDP-KP is more of a mental benchmark on if Abe won his gamble.  Right now at best he is breaking even.  Of course he will claim he will lose more next year if the election is held then.

[jaichind]

Opposition doing well so far in 愛知(Aichi).  No large scale vote splitting there. 

[jaichind]

Looks like a CDP surge in Tokyo PR.  Might be enough with along with JCP support to win a few FPTP seats there.