Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-16/japan-s-leader-abe-may-call-snap-general-election-nhk-reports

NHK reports that Abe will most likely call a snap election for Oct 2017.  If NHK reports it then most likely this is 99.99% true.

[jaichind]

Political analyst 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) who was the must accurate professional projection of 33 seats for the LDP in the recent Tokyo Prefecture election (LDP ended up with 23 seats) projected the following for a snap election (vs 2014)

                         2014                                 Projection           
                District   PR   Total    PR%       District   PR   Total    Implied PR%
LDP             223     68    291   33.11%       212       61   273            30.5%
KP                  9      26     35   13.71%          9        25    34            13.5%
DPJ/DP          38     35     73    18.33%        44        28    72            15.5%
JIP/JRP          11     30     41    15.72%         6        12    18              7.0%
JFP                                                             9        26    36             14.5%
PFG/PJK          2       0      2      2.65%          0         0       0              0.5%
PLP/LP            2       0       2     1.93%          2         0       2              2.5%
SDP                1      1        2     2.46%          1         1       2              2.5%
JCP                 1     21     21    11.37%         1       23     24             12.5%
Ind.                8      0       8                         5         0      5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  295    180   475                     289      176   465

LDP-KP held to just under 2/3 majority 307 out of 465

Since the 2014 election there has been redistricting reducing the number seats from 475 to 465.
I also computed the implied PR vote share.  Matsuda Kaoru seems to share my view that under these circumstances DP will be down to around 15% with LDP  losing around 2.5%-3.0% from 2014.  PFG vote in 2014 mostly went to LDP anyway so the net loss for LDP from 2014 is actually a bit more than that. 

With these PR vote share Matsuda Kaoru must be assuming some sort of tactical arrangement between DP and JFP as well as separately between DP LP SDP and JCP.  If there we not such tactical agreements then there is no way LDP would be held to just 212 District seats.  On the other hand if there was a full blown DP-LDP-SDP-JCP alliance then I suspect the LDP would be worse off than 2012 seats so these alliances must be on a seat-by-seat basis. 

[jaichind]

One theory, at least I have, that Abe wants to call elections now is the Casino Bill coming up.  KP is already in big trouble with its Married Women Division by backing the bill under pressure from LDP.  If it comes up for a vote early next year the pressure within the KP may be so high that it may be forced to break off its alliance with the LDP or face a massive rebellion in its ranks in the next election.  Unless, of course, if the election was held in late 2017 BEFORE such a vote.  I also think LDP-KP alliance have one last election in it and 2017 may be that election for both parties can cash in.  After that the internal pressure in both parties may be that the alliance will have to be dissolved on way or another. 

As soon as rumor of snap elections came out Japanese political discussion boards had a snap survey on like results which is

23% The number of opposition seats increases, the ruling party seats decreases
42% The ruling party seats increases and the opposition party seats decreases
35% The ruling party seats and the opposition party seats decreases

It seems a lot number of Japanese political junkies expect JFP to win a significant number of seats to the point where 35% of them think both LDP-KP and various opposition parities will all lose seats.   

It seems KP senior leaders will have an emergency meeting tomorrow.  It seems that this snap election rumor is real.  There are some by-elections coming up.  If Abe dissolves the lower chamber on Sept. 28, the general election and the by-elections will likely be integrated, with voting on either Oct 22 or Oct 29.

The LDP gamble is clear.  Get an election while DP is weak and JFP has not been really established outside Tokyo.

[jaichind]

若狭 勝 (Wakasa Masaru), the pro-Koike LDP rebel, that recently formed 日本ファーストの会 (Japan First Party) (JFP) recently as the national branch of the Koike's Tokyo regional TPFA party, has said if an election is called it would speed up the creation of a new Japanese national political party.  



Wakasa seems to imply that he might merge his party perhaps with various DP rebel parties and will try to run a large number of candidates in the upcoming elections.  This is bad news for LDP in Tokyo but good news for LDP pretty much everywhere else.  

[jaichind]

摂津市 (Settsu City) of Osaka Prefecture had its City council elections today.  Results compared to 2013 are

         Contested    Win    Vote Share
ORA        7             5          28.18%  (Osaka branch of JRP)
KP           5            5          27.37%
LDP         4             3         13.78%
DP          2             2           9.34%
JCP         4             4          16.44%
CFA         4             0           3.10%   (this is Koike Party in Osaka)
Ind          1            0           1.79%

whereas in 2013 it was

         Contested    Win    Vote Share
ORA        6             5          25.88%  (Osaka branch of JRP)
YP           1             0           1.08%
KP           5            5          24.86%
LDP         5             4         17.06%
DPJ         3             2          11.64%
JCP         5             5          15.96%
NNHK      2            0            1.82%  (Anti-NHK party, fringe Right wing party obsessed with NHK)
Ind         2             0           1.70%

ORA and KP gets a swing from 2013 while LDP and DP continue to decline.

In Osaka local politics it is now pretty much ORA-KP vs LDP-DP-JCP where LDP, DP and JCP which are national rivals gang up on ORA and all things equal gets beaten by ORA.  Abe deep down I suspect would back ORA over LDP as the Osaka branch of LDP is mostly anti-Abe.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

LDP and JCP on the same side? 😂 Only in Japan!

Although that said, why are KP with ORA? Is it because they want to ally with whoever might is most likely to be in charge?

[jaichind]

LDP and JCP on the same side? 😂 Only in Japan!

Although that said, why are KP with ORA? Is it because they want to ally with whoever might is most likely to be in charge?

Pretty much.  That is how KP operates.  That is the real basis of the TPFA-KP alliance in Tokyo.  Once it was clear ORA was going to displace LDP as the dominate party in Osaka KP joined up with ORA which in turn consolidated the ORA position in Osaka local politics.

[jaichind]

Abe said that he will decide on the dissolution of the parliament on Sept. 28 to pave way for an election on Oct. 22 after his trip to the USA.  At this stage it is a certainly that he will do so.  To let talks about this to go so far without doing it would make it untenable.  It delaying the announcements until his trip to the UN has to do with crafting an argument for the snap election in terms of the threat from DPRK and not make it about how it helps Abe to secure a third term as LDP President.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

By the way, when will the pro-military constitutional referendum likely be?

[jaichind]

By the way, when will the pro-military constitutional referendum likely be?

Constitutional change proposal not even out of LDP conference yet.  This is early days.  In fact Abe might dissolve the Lower House and campaign on this issue: "DPRK military threat means that we must revise the Constitution to have a real military.  Please give LDP-KP 2/3 majority so we can get this Constitutional revision law passed and hand it over to you, the voter, to vote on.  Oh. P.S. LDP MPs: vote Abe for LDP President Sept 2018."

[jaichind]

I always liked this chart I made last year on PR vote share for different blocs (LDP+ is LDP and KP, Third Pole are non-LDP/anti-LDP Right (including Far Right), Center-Left are DP/DPJ, SDP, PLP/LP etc etc, and JCP is JCP.

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74

Now, if we go with political analyst 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) projection from a couple of days ago

                         2014                                 Projection            
                District   PR   Total    PR%       District   PR   Total    Implied PR%
LDP             223     68    291   33.11%       212       61   273            30.5%
KP                  9      26     35   13.71%          9        25    34            13.5%
DPJ/DP          38     35     73    18.33%        44        28    72            15.5%
JIP/JRP          11     30     41    15.72%         6        12    18              7.0%
JFP                                                             9        26    36             14.5%
PFG/PJK          2       0      2      2.65%          0         0       0              0.5%
PLP/LP            2       0       2     1.93%          2         0       2              2.5%
SDP                1      1        2     2.46%          1         1       2              2.5%
JCP                 1     21     21    11.37%         1       23     24             12.5%
Ind.                8      0       8                         5         0      5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  295    180   475                     289      176   465

And used the implied PR vote share I calculated you get this following chart if you assumes HRP gets 0.5%

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       44.00              22.50             20.50            12.50

Which puts the Third Pole and Center-Left back to around 2013 levels but with LDP+ weaker and JCP stronger than 2013.  The Right/Left split of 2017 would be similar to 2014 but unlikely 2014 when the main Third Pole party JIP had some tactical alliances with DPJ this time around that is possible but it will not as coordinated since for sure ORA will not have any tactical alliance with DP.  Only hope to stop a complete LDP-KP tidal wave would be some sort of DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliance.  Given it is the Conservative wing of the DP that is now in charge of DP this does not seem easy at all.

[jaichind]

Someone put together a map by district using 2014 PR vote share by party of LDP+KP vs DPJ+PLP+SDP+JCP.  Of course JIP vote share is totally left out so I guess the map figures the JIP effect is a wash.   Blue is DPJ+PLP+SDP+JCP ahead of LDP+KP

[jaichind]

Latest Abe approval average curve

[jaichind]

TOKYO, Sept. 19 Kyodo
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering laying out his plan next week for a general election, a government source said Tuesday.
Abe is looking to hold a press conference on Monday to announce that he will dissolve the House of Representatives on Sept. 28, when the lower house will convene for an extraordinary session.
In line with the schedule, official campaigning would start on Oct. 10 for the election on Oct. 22, ruling party sources said.

[mileslunn]

Is this pretty much going to be an Abe landslide or is there any chance he could face a challenge.  It seems that although his approval rating is not great, opposition is so fragmented none could realistically challenge the LDP.

[jaichind]

Tokyo stocks rose nearly 2 percent Tuesday with the Nikkei index ending at its highest level in more than two years.  Market mostly pricing in a LDP landslide.

[jaichind]

Is this pretty much going to be an Abe landslide or is there any chance he could face a challenge.  It seems that although his approval rating is not great, opposition is so fragmented none could realistically challenge the LDP.

Pretty much.   Main risk to LDP is that turnout will be high and the election becomes a referendum and not a choice election in which case LDP-KP might lose their 2/3 majority.

[Famous Mortimer]

TOKYO, Sept. 19 Kyodo
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering laying out his plan next week for a general election, a government source said Tuesday.
Abe is looking to hold a press conference on Monday to announce that he will dissolve the House of Representatives on Sept. 28, when the lower house will convene for an extraordinary session.
In line with the schedule, official campaigning would start on Oct. 10 for the election on Oct. 22, ruling party sources said.

I will believe it when I see it. Japanese PMs have pulled these fake out press conferences before.

[jaichind]

If seems now certain that 若狭 勝 (Wakasa Masaru)'s pro-Koike  JFP will merge with 細野 豪志 (Hosono Gōshi) group of ex-DP MPs to from a new party next week with a new name and new symbol.  This way this new party starts with more than 5 MPs to qualify for funding which would necessary for the likely upcoming election campaign.  

It seems that this new party will run "dozens" to "up to 50" in the upcoming election.  Most likely they will run in all 25 Tokyo seats and in various other seats where they manage to recruit quality candidates.  In many ways this elections is really bad news for Koike's national ambitions.  It force her to get a national up and running to stay relevant but gives her no time for fundraising or to recruit good candidates.  And a poor election result might inhibit donors and quality defectors/candidates in the future.   This impact seems like a feature of Abe/LDP calling the election early, if that were to take place.  

In that sense as bad shape as DP is in, this early election might be good new for DP in the sense that it will help kill off another rival which could emerge as the alternative to LDP which DP currently occupies.  In fact both LDP and DP have an instinctive to keep DP the alternative to LDP.  For DP that is obvious and for LDP it is to make sure its national alternative is always worse than itself, which it gets with DP.

[jaichind]

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will dissolve the House of Representatives for an election at the outset of an extraordinary Diet session to be convened on Sept. 28 without delivering a policy speech, ruling party sources said Thursday.

[jaichind]

A leaked internal LDP survey has it

LDP          258-276
DP             98-108
JCP             26-31
Koike Party   5-10

out of 465 seats

If we assume KP at 34, LP at 2, SDP at 2, Ind at around 4, then that puts JRP at around 15.

back in 2014 it was

LDP           291 plus 2 defectors from FPG = 293
KP              35
DPJ             73
JIP              41
JCP             21
SDP             2
PLP              2
Ind              8

out of 475 seats

LDP pre-election surveys tends to underestimate LDP support as to lower expectations so this survey should be seen as a floor for LDP performance.   Although this survey does seem to indicate that JRP will be wiped out outside of Osaka and Koike Party will be wiped out outside of Tokyo.

The large number of seats for DP is the mirror image of the underestimation, on purpose, of LDP. I would add 25 seats to LDP and subtract 25 seats from DP and even that result for DP has to come from a reasonable level of tactical alliance with JCP in a number of key seats and perhaps with Koike Party in others.  The real shock of the survey is the JCP surge.  Given the fact that the JCP will most likely win 1 FPTP seat and perhaps a couple of more if DP lets them with DP support and manage to win (all very big ifs) that still leaves a large surge for JCP in the PR section.  It seems that the LDP survey would have JCP at around 15% on the PR section at least which would be a record level of support of JCP in Japan election history.

[Lachi]

That 15% would give JCP 27 seats

It would be a record in terms of raw support, but it would not be a record in terms of proportion of house seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That 15% would give JCP 27 seats

It would be a record in terms of raw support, but it would not be a record in terms of proportion of house seats.

I wonder what Bgwah has to say about that.

[jaichind]

That 15% would give JCP 27 seats

It would be a record in terms of raw support, but it would not be a record in terms of proportion of house seats.

Sure, but that has to do with the post 1993 system of mainly FPTP with some PR seats versus multi-member districts 1993 and before.  In terms of vote share 11%-12% is pretty much the peak of the JCP (mostly in the mid 1990s)

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) --
The date of Japan’s lower house election is said to be set for Oct. 22, according to three people with direct knowledge of the ruling coalition’s plan.  The people asked not to be identified as the date has yet to be announced