Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

Magazine 週刊現代(Shukan Gendai) came out with their initial projection which projects a major LDP setback with Koike Party eating into the LDP base instead of DP.  It also has fairly effective DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliances in the district seats.   It also does not have a JCP surge with DP mostly keeping its voting base from 2016.



                      District      PR      Total        Implied PR%
LDP                   171        51       222              25.5%
KP                        6        25         31              13.5%
JRP                      5         11         16               6.5%
Koike Party         16         25         41              14.0%
DP                     79          42      121              22.5%
JCP                      2         21         23              12.0%
SDP                     1          1            2               2.5%
LP                        2          0           2                2.0%
Ind                      7
Total                 289       176       465  

Fuji news came out with their projections which also has a small LDP setback with LDP-KP losing their 2/3 majority but much better than the Hukan Gendai projection.  This projection has Koike Party eating partly into the LDP base but more of the DP base. Again, effective DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliance plus some anti-LDP tactical voting with Koike Party keep LDP-KP just below 2/3 majority.

                      District      PR      Total        Implied PR%
LDP                   212        61       273              30.5%
KP                        9        25         34              13.5%
JRP                      6         12         18               7.0%
Koike Party           9         26         35              14.5%
DP                     44         28         72              15.5%
JCP                      1         23         24              13.0%
SDP                     1          1            2               2.5%
LP                        2          0           2                2.0%
Ind                      5
Total                 289       176       465  

Frankly I would not put too much faith in these types of projections right after the election is called.  They usually have an anti-LDP bias since a lot of their info are from various LDP surveys which usually low-ball LDP strength it lower expectations.

We should really wait for the consortium of media outlet sponsored massive poll which usually has a pro-LDP tilt but generally pretty accurate.  If the election is called they usually come out a couple of weeks before the election itself.

[jaichind]

I personally do not buy this baloney that Koike Party can win ~14% of the PR vote.  They would be lucky to cross 8%.   There is no party name yet and they really have nothing outside of Tokyo in terms of organization other than various DP and LDP defectors which might get something in a dozen districts outside of Tokyo. 

[jaichind]

If LDP does win by a landslide then one can make the argument that DPRK's Kim Jong-un should run for LDP President in Sept 2018 and by all rights should win.  A couple of months ago Abe/LDP were on the ropes after the crushing defeat in the Tokyo Prefecture elections. Thanks to Kim LDP managed to recover and chaos inside DP has given it an opening to win.  One has to think based on recent events that Kim Jong-un is a secret LDP member. 

[Lachi]

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

[jaichind]

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

JIP is gone. Hashomoto created JRP in 2012.  Then JRP merged with YP splinter UP in 2014 for form JIP with PFG splitting out from JRP to oppose to this merger.   Then JIP split in late 2015 where Hashimoto took ORA out of JIP to oppose the trend inside JIP to ally with DPJ.  JIP then merged with DPJ in 2016 to form DP.  ORA then renamed itself back to JRP.  I know it is confusing since JRP, ORA and JIP all has the word 維新 (Ishin) in it.  

[Lord Halifax]

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

JIP is gone. Hashomoto created JRP in 2012.  Then JRP merged with YP splinter UP in 2014 for form JIP with PFG splitting out from JRP to oppose to this merger.   Then JIP split in late 2015 where Hashimoto took ORA out of JIP to oppose the trend inside JIP to ally with DPJ.  JIP then merged with DPJ in 2016 to form DP.  ORA then renamed itself back to JRP.  I know it is confusing since JRP, ORA and JIP all has the word 維新 (Ishin) in it.  

Is there any ideological difference between DP and JRP?

[Lachi]

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

JIP is gone. Hashomoto created JRP in 2012.  Then JRP merged with YP splinter UP in 2014 for form JIP with PFG splitting out from JRP to oppose to this merger.   Then JIP split in late 2015 where Hashimoto took ORA out of JIP to oppose the trend inside JIP to ally with DPJ.  JIP then merged with DPJ in 2016 to form DP.  ORA then renamed itself back to JRP.  I know it is confusing since JRP, ORA and JIP all has the word 維新 (Ishin) in it. 

Is there any ideological difference between DP and JRP?

JRP is very right-wing, while the Dems are a centre, to centre-left big tent party.

[jaichind]

Political analyst 児玉克哉 (Kodama Katsuya) had not come out with a projection yet but came out with a comment that most projections has LDP losing some seats.  While that is very possible, he feels that there is a strong chance that LDP gains a large number of seats.   He said at this stage it can end up being more but DP can only really count on 30 seats or so (10 in District and 20 in PR).  If so then LDP will gain most of the seats that DP loses in this situation, especially in the district seats.

[jaichind]

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

JIP is gone. Hashomoto created JRP in 2012.  Then JRP merged with YP splinter UP in 2014 for form JIP with PFG splitting out from JRP to oppose to this merger.   Then JIP split in late 2015 where Hashimoto took ORA out of JIP to oppose the trend inside JIP to ally with DPJ.  JIP then merged with DPJ in 2016 to form DP.  ORA then renamed itself back to JRP.  I know it is confusing since JRP, ORA and JIP all has the word 維新 (Ishin) in it.  

Is there any ideological difference between DP and JRP?

JRP is mostly another LDP faction.  It competes with LDP in Osaka but outside of Osaka actually acts like a LDP rebel faction where they might opposed LDP and if need so have tactical alliances with DP but when it comes down to it will align with LDP based on similar ideology.   It is fairly aligned with the hawkish faction of LDP on constitutional reform but mainly focused on decentralization of power toward key regional centers. 

DP is a big tent party that contains old Socialist to Free Market libertarians.  It also have a fairly hawkish faction although it is mostly dovish.  A key component of DP is the Rengo labor union bloc which is at odds with the urban middle class DP vote on the nuclear power issue. 

[jaichind]

This election is turning into 47 separate elections at the prefecture level versus one national election with totally different trends in different prefectures.

In Tokyo and 神奈川(Kanagawa) DP is completely falling apart with mass defections to the Koike Party.  In both prefectures it seems it will be LDP vs Kokie Party with DP playing at most a spoiler role. 

In 北海道(Hokkaido) and 熊本(Kumamoto) the local branches of DP and JCP are forming alliances with is critical in  北海道(Hokkaido) where a DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliance could create an onslaught that could end up crushing LDP-KP.  KP now risks losing its one district seat in 北海道(Hokkaido).   A lot of the pro-DP projections seem to be based on the assumptions that despite hostility between the current Conservative leadership in DP and JCP at the local level the local chapters of DP and JCP can work out deals to put up a united front against LDP-KP in districts where it counts.

[jaichind]

Koike not to become head of new party planned by her ally
Saturday, September 23, 2017 01:05 AM
TOKYO, Sept. 23 Kyodo
Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike will not become the head of a new national party a lawmaker close to her is planning to establish ahead of a general election expected next month, the lawmaker said Saturday.
"It has been almost decided that (the post of a new party's chief) will be filled by a Diet member," the lower house lawmaker Masaru Wakasa said on a television program.
Wakasa is forming a new party with other lawmakers including Goshi Hosono, a former environment minister who recently left the main opposition Democratic Party, and is aiming to field more than 50 candidates once Prime Minister Shinzo Abe calls a general election next week as widely expected.
"I have never asked Koike" to become the head of the planned party, Wakasa added.
Still, there are expectations Wakasa's party will ask Koike to take up a senior post to capitalize on the Tokyo governor's popularity.
Koike's Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First party) scored a sweeping victory in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election in July, dethroning Abe's Liberal Democratic Party.
Wakasa and Hosono will likely settle on "Hope" party as a new name of their party, people familiar with the matter said, apparently seeking a close association with Koike's political school called School of Hope.
Wakasa also said his new party should be an alternative to Abe's LDP and the Democratic Party and suggested that it will not, in principle, seek to field unified candidates with other opposition parties in single-seat constituencies.

[jaichind]

Looks like the Koike Party will most likely be called "希望の党" or Hope Party.  Not clear what the official English name of the party will be yet.  Party will be officially kicked off 9/27, the same day Abe is likely to call new elections.

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll on PR voting intentions

Looks like this new Hope party have some legs. I totally underestimated it.  

LDP    27.0
DP       8.0
HP       6.2  (Hope Party which is Koike Party)
KP       4.6
JCP      3.5
JRP      2.2
SDP     0.3
LP       0.1
PJK      0.0

Abe cabinet support

Support   45
Oppose    41.3

Are you for mid-term elections

For         23.7
Against   64.3

back in Nov 2014 right before the 2014 midterm election the Kyodo poll was

LDP      28.0
DPJ       10.3
KP          4.6
JCP         4.4
JIP         3.3
SDP       0.8
PFG        0.6
PLP        0.3

with result being

LDP      33.11
KP       13.71
DP       18.33
JCP      11.37
JIP       15.72
SDP       2.46
FPG       2.65
PLP       1.93

This poll seems to indicate

LDP will be around 31  KP at 13.5-14 as always and DP at around 15.5.  Which means that Koike Party mostly gained at the expense of of DP with JCP not doing that great.  If so then this will be a crushing landslide by LDP-KP.

If we do a comparison to the Kyodo first round poll in 2016 Upper House elections we had

LDP　28.9%　→　27.0%（-1.9%）
DP 　10.9%　→　  8.0%（-2.9%）
KP 　  6.3%　→　  4.6%（-1.7%）
JCP     5.3%　→　 3.5%（-1.8%）
JRP     2.4%　→　 2.2%（-0.2%）
SDP    1.6%　→　 0.3%（-1.3%）
LP       0.7%　→　 0.1%（-0.6%）
HP　    NA　   →　 6.2%

2016 ended up being

LDP     35.91
DP       20.98
KP       13.52
JCP      10.74
JRP       9.20
SDP      2.74
LP         1.91

I would just throw out any polling for KP.  No matter what If turnout is very very low then KP will be at 14.5 and if turnout is very very high KP will be at around 12.5.  Else it will be around 13.5 or so.

This comparison also shows HP taking somewhat more votes from DP than LDP but this comparison is more favorable to DP since in 2016 DP has a higher base.  There does not seem to be any sign of a JCP surge that many projections are talking about.

[jaichind]

Election for Osaka prefecture city 堺市(Sakai) mayor today.  It is LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama) vs JRP backed candidate 永藤 (Eiji) (with nominal support from KP).  For a while during the campaign it seems that Eiji might catch fire.  But in the end it seems like it will be a victory of the incumbent Takeyama. 

Polls just closed and exit polls indicate a Takeyama victory.

MBS exit poll


NHK exit poll on party support of voters
LDP   28
JRP    22
KP      6
JCP     6
DP      5
LP      2
SDP    1
Ind.  29

[jaichind]

堺市(Sakai) mayor exit poll by party support



LDP (red), DP(blue), JCP(purple) voters clearly voted for Takeyama and JRP (yellow) clearly voted for Eiji.  Independents went for Eiji by a small margin which is keeping Eiji in the race.  What is a surprise is that KP (pink) is going for  Takeyama despite de facto KP support for JRP.

[Lachi]

I don't get why Koike's party would eat into DP's vote.

[jaichind]

I don't get why Koike's party would eat into DP's vote.

LDP KP and JCP are machine votes.  DP votes are "floating voters" that vote the latest fad.   JRP in 2012 dramatically cut into the DPJ vote which DP is slowly recovering from.  I guess it is totally possible HP will be the fad of 2017 and cut into DP's vote.

[jaichind]

Three possible scenarios I see in the snap election

Scenario 1 (Opposition unity failure including HP bombing out in Tokyo) (40%)
LDP-KP               340 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP     85  seats
JRP                     30 seats
HP                      15 seats

Scenario 2 (Opposition unity success and wins marginal seats, HP bombs out) (25%)
LDP-KP               275 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP   160  seats
JRP                     25 seats
HP                      15 seats

Scenario 3 (HP surge which includes sweeping Tokyo) (35%)
LDP-KP               280 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP   115  seats
JRP                     15 seats
HP                      65 seats

[jaichind]

NHK calls the 堺市(Sakai) mayor race for LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama).  No official results in yet but I guess they have access to their exit poll plus some unofficial initial counts at the counting centers. 

[jaichind]

堺市(Sakai) mayor race 29% of the vote in

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     52.6%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        47.4%

[jaichind]

堺市(Sakai) mayor race 68% of the vote in

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     53.1%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        46.9%

[jaichind]

Back in 2013 for 堺市(Sakai) mayor race it was

LDP-DPJ-SDP-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     58.5%
JRP candidate                                                              41.5%

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll (has historic LDP lean)

Abe approval  50(+4)/42(-4)

Party support

LDP   44
HP      8
DP      8
JCP     5
KP      3
JRP     3
SDP    1
LP      1



Historically one gets LDP-KP PR vote share in Nikkei polls by adding LDP+KP which is 47 given the historic LDP house effect for Nikkei polls.  Still LDP+KP at 47 and HP and DP both around equal and without an alliance means a mega landslide for LDP+KP.

[jaichind]

Husband of PJK President 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko), 中山 成彬 (Nakayama Nariaki), seems to be set to join leave PJK and join HP.



PJK is an avowed enemy of Koike in Tokyo so this move seems bizarre.  This must be the first example of a husband leaving a party that his wife is the leader of.  The Husband-Wife pair are both former LDP MPs before they bolted to join various Hawk LDP rebel parties.

Edit:  It seems both couple are going to join HP.  This is the end of PJK.

[jaichind]

UPDATE1: Senior vice minister to join new opposition force
Sunday, September 24, 2017 06:24 AM
TOKYO, Sept. 24 Kyodo
(EDS: UPDATING WITH SMALL OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER'S PLAN TO JOIN NEW PARTY)
A senior vice minister of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, Mineyuki Fukuda, said Sunday he will leave the ruling bloc to join a new party being organized by those close to Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike.
Kyoko Nakayama, leader of the small opposition the Party for Japanese Kokoro also met with Koike the same day and expressed an intention to join the planned new party, a source close to the matter said.
Fukuda, a senior vice minister of the Cabinet Office, said at a press conference he will leave the Liberal Democratic Party to run in the general election expected for next month with the new party, which could realign the opposition camp amid the dominance of the LDP-led coalition.
"I'm not meaning to criticize the LDP," Fukuda said. "I'd like to create socially desirable human resources with Mr. Wakasa."
Masaru Wakasa, another LDP defector and close aide to Koike, said at the same news conference that more could leave the LDP to join the new party, which has also attracted opposition lawmakers including Goshi Hosono, who recently left the Democratic Party, the largest opposition struggling to regain public support under new leader Seiji Maehara.
Fukuda, a 53-year-old House of Representatives member in his third term, will convey his intention to the LDP on Monday.
First elected to the lower house in 2005, Fukuda was defeated in the 2014 general election in his constituency in Kanagawa Prefecture but clung to a Diet seat on proportional representation.
Also Sunday, Hosono said many voters believe it is risky to keep Abe in power while also considering the existing opposition parties as not becoming realistic alternatives.
"We'll present a choice in the middle of them," Hosono said on a TV program. He also said the new party will field candidates throughout the country.
"We're not intending to be a third pole. We're aiming to be the governing party," Hosono said.