Japan Oct 22 2017

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

福岡 (Fukuoka) which is in Southern Japan PR poll

LDP   30.0
HP     11.5
KP       6.5
CDP     6.5

Frankly this poll should also have LDP worried.  In places like 福岡 (Fukuoka) LDP-KP PR vote should be in the low 50s.  福岡 (Fukuoka) is more anti-LDP than most in Southern Mainland Japan but Southern Mainland Japan is usually a LDP clean sweep except for isolated spots. 

Given Kyushu/Fukuoka's status as Yakuza land, does that, err, influence the local LDP?

[jaichind]

Yomiuri projection based on the same raw data that Asahi has



Which seems to be
          Min - Avg - Max
LDP      257-274-295
KP          30-33-36
JRP         13-14-15
HP          56-59-64
CDP        39-42-49
SDP          2-2-2
JCP        15-15-16
Ind        25-26-30  (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

HP seems to be under-performing and JCP seems to be losing ground to CDP but the split in opposition votes seems to be handing LDP another landslide victory.

[jaichind]

Nikkei projection based on the same poll as everyone else have
        


         Min - Avg - Max
LDP　199～260～308
KP    　28～34～36
JRP     　5～10～16
HP    　46～69～110
CDP  　 35～45～60
SDP     　1～1～2
JCP   　 15～18～20
Ind      15～28～35  (4-5 are pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

Message clearly is HP falling apart and CDP surging with LDP taking advantage of the split vote of the opposition.  

[jaichind]

Kyodo projections which are the most pro-LDP of all the projections although it has KP performing poorly and JRP doing better than other projections.  It also has CDP and JCP doing worse than other projections.
          
               Total                      District                   PR                  Implied Avg PR vote
         Min - Avg - Max     Min - Avg - Max    Min - Avg - Max
LDP　273～289～305      210～221～334         63～68～71                      34.5%
KP    　26～30～35               7～8～9              19～22～26                      12.0%
NPD        0～0～1                                             0～0～1                          0.5%
JRP      10～17～23              2～6～10              8～11～13                        7.0%
HP       47～60～72            13～21～29           34～39～43                      22.5%
CDP  　 25～33～42             7～12～17           18～21～25                      12.5%
SDP     　1～2～2                 1～1～1                0～1～1                           2.0%
JCP   　10～14～19              0～0～2              10～14～17                        8.5%
Ind      14～20～25            14～20～25

[jaichind]

Note that all these media diverse projections are all based on the same mega poll.  Each media house then un-skewed these polls results their own way based on their on-the-ground reports.

Kyodo which is the most anti-LDP always have the most pro-LDP projection and Nikkei which is  the most pro-LDP always has the most anti-LDP projections.  I think they are overcompensating for their house effects.

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll for PR for the PR section 北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)   

LDP  36.3
KP     4.8
JRP    2.3
HP   13.4
CDP   8.0
SDP   1.5
JCP    4.4
 
Going by historical biases of Kyodo polls this seems to imply a LDP-KP vote share in 北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu) of around 49% which in turn implies a national vote share of LDP-KP at around 46%-47% which would make it identical to 2014.

[jaichind]

宮城(Miyagi) PR poll 



LDP   32.6
KP      5.0
PJK     0.4
JRP     0.7
HP    12.2
CDP    7.9
SDP    0.7
JCP     4.1

Miyagi PR vote for LDO-KP historically is about the national average.   This poll is done by the local Kahoku newspaper so I am not clear about is biases.  Usually the LDP-KP vote share in the poll is what they will end up with which means this poll is bad for LDP.  But without knowing the historical biases of this pollster we cannot be sure.

[jaichind]

Nikkei PR vote by PR region



                                                       LDP    HP    KP    JCP    CDP    JRP
Total                                                  34     16     7      6      13       4
北海道 (Hokkaido)                               29     12     6       7      19      2
東北(Tohoku)                                      34     19     6       6      13      1
北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)         35     17    7       5       13      2
南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)   35      15    7       5      15       2
東京 (Tokyo)                                       31     16     7       9      15      2
北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)                37      16     5      5      12       2
東海 (Tokai)                                       32      19     6      5      13       2
近畿 (Kinki)                                        31     11     8      7      10      12
中国(Chugoku)                                   41      15     8     4        9        2
四国 (Shikoku)                                   38      19     8      5       9        3
九州 (Kyūshū)                                    36      16     9      5      11       2

北海道 (Hokkaido)  results make sense.  I am surprised how well HP is doing in 東北(Tohoku) and how well CDP is doing in the Tokyo suburbs of the Kanto regions.  Of course the Tokyo numbers in Tokyo look like a disaster and it might turn into an embarrassment for Koike even if HP does ok overall.  JRP also doing poorly in 近畿 (Kinki).

Back in 2014 Sankei published their PR vote poll results based on the same pollster and it had along with real results.

LDP    37.5%  -> 33.1%
DPJ     13.2%  -> 18.3%
JIP      10.7%  -> 15.7%
KP        8.2%  -> 13.7%
JCP       5.2%  -> 11.4%
FPG      1.5%  ->   2.7%
PLP       1.9%  ->  1.9%
SDP      1.4%  ->  2.5%

It seems to imply that LDP-KP is headed toward something like 44% of the combined PR vote which is not great but should enough for a victory.  

Of course in 2014 the 2 ruling parties LDP-KP polled 45.7 vs 29.1 (for the 3 major opposition parties of DPJ JIP and JCP).  Now the LDP-KP is polling 41 vs 39 (for the 4 major opposition parties of HP JRP CDP JCP).  All signs put to a much closer race but the projections that are based on these raw polling data point to the same LDP-KP landslide.

[jaichind]

NHK projection

LDP    270
KP       35
JRP     16
HP      55
DCP    33
JCP     24
Rest    32 (I guess SDP 2, NPD 1, and 29  independents (4-5 pro-LDP rest anti-LDP))

[jaichind]

Yomiuri Projection

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          211         61      272             31.0%
KP               9         23        32             12.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              6           8       14               5.5%
HP             21         38        59             21.5%
CDP           12         31        43             18.0%
SDP             1           1         2               2.0%
JCP              1         14       15               8.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0        5
Ind(Oppn)  23           0       23
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

PR votes seems pretty close to where I would have it with CDP perhaps a bit high and JRP a bit low. Mostly lack of CDP-HP tactical voting seems to push up the LDP single district seats.

[jaichind]

One fairly shocking result of these media projections but not surprising is the fact that LDP seems set to sweep Tokyo.  The CDP surge ate into HP's vote share and with almost all Tokyo seat having 3 way battles between LDP-KP vs HP vs CDP-SDP-JCP the CDP surge meant that the anti-LDP vote is set to be split opening the way for the LDP sweep.  Also CDP seems to be gaining from its alliance with JCP and is set to gain a few seats relative to DP's performance of 1 seat out of 25 in 2014.  HP's seat count in Tokyo might end up in the low single digits.  Not sure Koike can survive this embarrassment. 

[jaichind]

The CDP-SDP-JCP-(ex-DP ind) alliance is not perfect.  Out of 289 seats this bloc is not running in 4 of them and are de facto backing the HP candidate.    

Out of the 285 reaming seats
SDP is representing the front  in 12 seats
CDP is representing the front in 42 seats
ex-DP independent is representing the front in 26 seats
JCP is representing the front in 176 seats

In 30 seats no deal was made so
Both SDP and JCP running in 5 seats
Both CDP and JCP running in 21
Both ex-DP independent and JCP running 3

Since JCP is not a viable winner in a district seat, in reality the Left Front have realistic chance to win a solid share of the vote only in around 100 districts or so with a realistic chance to win in only around 40 seats or so.

HP is running 198 seats out f 289 seats and seem to be backing 12 mostly ex-DP independents.  HP is also backing JRP in the 15 out of 19 Osaka seats where KP is not running.   For the Osaka KP seats both HP and JRP are not running and are implicitly backing KP and leaving the Left Front to challenge KP.  HP also backing JRP in 3 other non-Osaka seats.  

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll has Abe Approval/Disapproval at 37(-13)/48(+6) which change from Sept. 

[_]

So LDP is going to win again because the opposition can't cobble together a coalition to beat them?  Also, do parties usually rise and fall this quickly in Japan?  It seems ridiculous how parties are just created so quickly.

[jaichind]

Yomuri poll has interest in the election 43%, some interest at 37% and no interest at 14%.  Age plays a big role as interest increase with age.  This actually works to the slight disadvantage of LDP as DP/JCP tends to be stronger in the 50s and 60s age group while LDP tends to be strong in the 20s and 30s.



Same poll has support for Abe's Constitutional revision idea of putting in the existence of SDF in the pacifist 9th Clause at 35/42.  It is interesting that LDP PR voters back it 60/18 but HP PR voters only back it 25/58.  Seems to imply that HP PR voters are really just old DP/DPJ voters.  KP backing is lukewarm at 43/31.  Of course JCP SDP and CDP PR voters oppose by large margins.  JRP voters back it 47/38 which is somewhat not surprising.


Overall Abe loses on this issue but because he is able to carry the KP vote anyway LDP will do well.

[jaichind]

So LDP is going to win again because the opposition can't cobble together a coalition to beat them?  Also, do parties usually rise and fall this quickly in Japan?  It seems ridiculous how parties are just created so quickly.

Yes. Pretty much.  One way to illiterate this is a field poll done in 3 key districts



Here  in Tokyo 11th district.  Abe's approval rating is around 30% but the LDP candidate due to local support seems to be polling around 40%.  Worse, since DCP and JCP could not work out a deal in this district (precisely because on paper given Abe's approval rating here  it should be vulnerable) HP, CDP and JCP are all running and all of them have around 15% of the vote.  The result is an easy victory for LDP.

In 京都(Kyoto) 1st district, Abe's approval rating is around 40% but JCP is also very strong.  But the JCP has a low cap even if it has a high floor here.  So LDP polls around 40%, JCP around 30% and HP around 10%.  There is no way the JCP can win enough undecided to defeat LDP.  Result is another easy LDP victory.

In 新潟(Niigata) 1st district, Abe's approval rating is in the low 40% and highest of the 3 districts.  But since in this prefecture it seems DCP HP and JCP has reached an implicit deal to back a common slate of DCP or ex-DP candidates, the LDP candidate is in trouble.  The LDP incumbent who won with 47% of the vote in 2014 looks to repeat the same feat by polling in the low 40s but is behind the united opposition DCP candidate.  Most likely the DCP candidate will win.

LDP-KP has rough around 45% support and JCP around 10% which are pretty stable.  The other 45% has experienced total chaos last 6 years with the creations and new parties, splinters and mergers.   This adds to the reason why the 45% that backs LDP-KP sticks with them.  The alternative seems to be JCP or chaos. Certainly that is how the LDP has been positioning this election.  

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

why didn't the DJP pass a decent electoral reform while they had the chance, ugh.

[jaichind]

福島(Fukushima) poll



Abe Approval/Disapproval 30/55  (was 37/42 back in July 2016 Upper House elections)
Party support
LDP  32
KP     3
JRP    1
HP   13
DP     2
CDP   8
SDP   2
JCP    4

Back in 2014 Lower House elections LDP support was 35 and KP 5 so LDP-KP is in decline here relative to 2014.

As for PR vote it is
LDP    32
KP       4? (did not say but 4 sounds about right)
JRP      2? (did not say but 2 sounds about right)
HP      21
CDP    14
SDP      2
JCP      6

when compared to an earlier poll in early Oct before CDP was formed

LDP    23.9
KP    　3.8
JRP     1.4
PJK     0.6
HP     30.6
LP       1.0
SDP     2.8
JCP      8.2

It is clear LDP gained ground while HP and JCP support has moved to DCP.  Fits the main narrative of the last week or so.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why are some former DPers running as HP and others running as pro-HP independents? What's the difference, what's the advantage?

Same question with the CDP, why are some running CDP and others as pro-CDP independents?

[jaichind]

Why are some former DPers running as HP and others running as pro-HP independents? What's the difference, what's the advantage?

Same question with the CDP, why are some running CDP and others as pro-CDP independents?

There are a bunch of ex-DP candidates which ideologically would be acceptable to HP/Koike but had leadership positions in the past in DP or DPJ.  HP's goal is to distance itself from the failed past of DPJ/DP.  So that is why HP insists on not a merger between HP and DP but individual DP members joining HP one by one.  So what was de facto worked out was for these ex-DP candidates to run as independents and HP not run a candidate in said district so they become the de facto candidate of HP.  These candidates are quit strong and since they have a significant amount of prestige within DP/DPJ, CDP would not want to run candidates against them and only JCP would volunteer for that district and run. 

For CDP and pro-CDP independents.  There is is a bit more tricky.  Some of these pro-CDP independents are ex-DP centrists that felt that they rather run with de facto CDP (and JCP/SDP) support withou the CDP party label which has a Leftist tinge.  Others are not even pro-CDP as really anti-LDP.  They run as independents as way to get CDP HP and even perhaps JCP to back them.  The idea is CDP is the Center-Left opposition and HP is the Center-Right opposition.  Running as a candidate with one of the two party labels might trigger the other to run a candidate and split the anti-LDP vote.  So the best way is to run as an independent to make it ambiguous and gives HP CDP and even JCP the excuse to just not run a candidate and say to themselves "it is for the better since we then do not split the anti-LDP vote."  I dare say if every ex-DP candidate manage to work out deals like this with CDP and HP in most districts then the LDP would be in trouble. Luckily for LDP there are only a 24 such independents which by my calculation 15 of which are favored to win.   

Note there are 16 CDP candidates running without a HP candidate running against them and all but 1 does not have a JCP candidate either.  About half of them are LDP strongholds that HP does not even bother.  In the other half CDP is favored in a majority of them since they get to take on LDP 1-on-1.

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: If HP wins, can Yuriko Koike become PM or does she have to resign as governor/run for a seat in parliament in a special election? If she didn't, who would become PM?

[jaichind]

why didn't the DJP pass a decent electoral reform while they had the chance, ugh.

Well I have a long answer to this.  

First when the election system was changed in 1993 from a multi-member district (usually 3 to 6) to FPTP, it was done to stop LDP from winning all the time.  In many ways such a system was very PR like.  The perception was that the LDP wins because it was a confederation of special interest groups which makes it perfect for a multi-member district system.  By having FPTP the internal contradictions of LDP would be exposed leading to a split in LDP and the anti-LDP parities will have to unite.  Neither turned out to be true.

It seems that HP will not be "The Party" that has been prophesied that will defeat LDP and bring balance to the Japanese political universe.  We have seen such false prophets before.  NFP in 1995, YP in 2010, JRP in 2012 and now HP in 2017.  All turned out not to be "The Party."  The one that came close and actually beat the LDP, was of course DPJ 2009.  But beating LDP in a national election is not good enough.  The LDP is like the Terminator, it does not stop and keeps on coming back.  I actually came up with an multi-step list to actually stop (not necessary beat) LDP once "The Party" actually shows up and defeats LDP in a national election (which would be the easy step.)  This mutli-step list is what the DPJ should have done.

1) Forget "what is good for Japan" or "good governance."  The LDP is ruthless and you must be the same.  All resources, including national resources has to be prioritized to the steps below by the new ruling party.

2) Visit national KP, give them a blank check both in terms of money and policy.  Say "fill the check with whatever your want" but you must join in alliance with us, the new ruling party.  If you get KP you bought a voting voting army of 8% of the electorate that turns out around 95% in elections which makes it worth around 12%-14% of the vote.

3) Every ruling party MP will the prefecture assembly of his (most MPs will be male, so lets accept this reality) prefecture will approach the SECOND most powerful leader of the LDP caucus.  A blank check both in terms of money and policy will be offered to him to defect and become the leader of the caucus of the new ruling party in the prefecture assembly.  

4) These MPs will route national resources to this new ruling party caucus leader and he will use these resource to lure other defectors from the LDP in the prefecture assembly came to come over to the new ruling party caucus.

5) The new ruling party caucus leader will also visit KP in the prefecture and, in the same method as others, hand a blank check to the local KP saying "your national branch already joined up with the new ruling party, you and your entire caucus should do the same and ally with the new ruling party, and here a bunch of goodies for you to make it worth your while."  And presto, the KP voting robot army at the prefecture level is also at the ruling party's command.

6) All ruling MLAs of prefecture will now visit the SECOND most power LDP leader in the various city and township assemblies and bribe him to come over to head up the new ruling party caucus in said township or city.

7) Repeat the process with KP branch at the city and township level.

8  ) It is critical that the money and resources flow from the PM to the ruling party MP and then to the prefecture MLA caucus leader to the members of the prefecture MLA and then to the city and township assembly members of the ruling party.

Doing all this does not completely defeat or destroy LDP.  It does mean that the new ruling party will not compete with the LDP on a equal basis and most likely will lead to the type of bipolar politics you see in the USA which was the point of the FPTP election system in the first place.

[Zuza]

Also, do parties usually rise and fall this quickly in Japan?  It seems ridiculous how parties are just created so quickly.

In the recent years, yes. This started in 2012, after a period of relative stability. Most of the parties (and all the significant ones except LDP, Komeito and JCP) that contested the 2012 election do not exist anymore.

[Tintrlvr]

Also, do parties usually rise and fall this quickly in Japan?  It seems ridiculous how parties are just created so quickly.

In the recent years, yes. This started in 2012, after a period of relative stability. Most of the parties (and all the significant ones except LDP, Komeito and JCP) that contested the 2012 election do not exist anymore.

Right. The issue is that the LDP is not popular and has never really been popular since they lost the 2009 election (or, going back a bit further, since Abe's first term as PM in 2006). Although polls have shown their numbers quite high at times, this is typical for Japan and does not represent satisfaction with the party. However, the DPJ, which defeated the LDP in 2009, made itself look incompetent by, among other things, running through three PMs in as many years, and destroyed the credibility of the party with the Japanese people as an alternative to the LDP. So the LDP is unpopular, but no one really thinks there is a viable alternative. This results in many different parties popping up to try to carve out individual fiefdoms or exploit the unpopularity of the LDP. As there are so many different parties, none of them are alone seen as significant enough to be able to be a viable governing force, so there's no incentive for either voters or politicians to coalesce behind a single alternative to the LDP. So the chaos continues.

Before 2006, there was a relatively long period from 2000-2006 where the LDP was popular, and the party system slowly coalesced. But, in the 90s, the LDP was also unpopular, and there was similar chaos in the party system, with parties forming, merging, dividing and dissolving all the time.

This election feels a little bit like 1993, the first time the LDP lost power, that time to an eight-party anti-LDP coalition, and I do think the possibility of Koike putting together a crazy-quilt coalition (that includes some elements currently inside the LDP and maybe doesn't last very long) is being underestimated. But there's no denying that, at least in the polls, she appears to have peaked.

[jaichind]

Dumb question: If HP wins, can Yuriko Koike become PM or does she have to resign as governor/run for a seat in parliament in a special election? If she didn't, who would become PM?

Well for her to be PM she will have to be a MP either in the Upper or Lower House.  So in the unlikely event HP plus a bunch of parties including KP and/or some LDP splinter, for Koike to become PM she has to run in a by-election to get in.  Worse, even if a HP MP resigns for Koike to get elected the delay between a MP resigning and by-election might be months leaving politics in a limbo.