Japan Oct 22 2017
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Author Topic: Japan Oct 22 2017  (Read 40929 times)
Lachi
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« Reply #375 on: October 17, 2017, 10:06:41 PM »

One again Abe timed the election as to eliminate his most dangerous rival before she becomes a threat.

Who was the rival in 2014?
I mean, theoretically Kaieda was. But practically, he had no real rivalry in 2014.
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Lumine
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« Reply #376 on: October 17, 2017, 10:06:57 PM »

Huh. The Koike hype lasted even less than the Schulz train.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #377 on: October 17, 2017, 11:13:17 PM »

Yukiko Kada x Yuriko Koike yuri dojinshi pls
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jaichind
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« Reply #378 on: October 18, 2017, 06:27:12 AM »

One again Abe timed the election as to eliminate his most dangerous rival before she becomes a threat.

Who was the rival in 2014?

I misspoke.  There was not rival in 2014.  But the economy was heading South and it was clear that 2015 would be a tough year.  So Abe called a surprise election can caught DPJ and JIP totally off guard.
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jaichind
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« Reply #379 on: October 18, 2017, 06:39:58 AM »

Latest Kyodo projection. They dialed back LDP seats by 8 from a week ago, mostly on the PR section.



              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          218         63      281             32.0%
KP               7         25        32             14.0%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              5           8       13               5.5%
HP             19         33        52             19.0%
CDP           16         32        48             18.5%
SDP             1           1         2               1.5%
JCP              0         14       14               9.0%
Ind            23           0       23   (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

It has KP losing 2 district seats which is a shock. It also has JCP with 0 district seats which implies that it loses Okinawa 1st district to LDP. 

Overall this projection seems to be herding toward all the others where everyone is converging toward LDP-KP at 115-120.
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jaichind
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« Reply #380 on: October 18, 2017, 07:38:10 AM »

Distribution of JCP and KP PR vote in 2014

JCP




KP
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #381 on: October 18, 2017, 07:46:25 AM »

Distribution of JCP and KP PR vote in 2014

JCP



I didn't know JCP had such strength on the south shore of Shikoku. Any idea why? Doesn't seem like a naturally JCP area (quite traditional).
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jaichind
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« Reply #382 on: October 18, 2017, 07:56:41 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 08:02:29 AM by jaichind »

Summery of media projections for district seats.

For HP the list below sorted by likelihood of HP victory.  Orange or yellow means HP ahead.  It shows HP could win up to 32 seats (if we take the super-set of the projections) but the individual projections has HP winning ranging from 16 to 26.





Same for DCP/JCP/SDP and various opposition independents (including pro-HP ex-DP independents).  Orange or yellow shows opposition ahead.  It shows this bloc can win up to 43 seats in the most optimistic case but individual projections has this bloc winning ranging from 28 to 35 seats.






Same for JRP.  Orange or yellow shows JRP lead. It shows JRP can win up to 7 seats in the most optimistic case but individual projections has JRP winning ranging from 2 to 6 seats.
 




What is interesting is my current projections has HP at 31 district seats,  DCP/JCP/SDP and various opposition independents at 43 seats and JRP at 7 seats.  All of them at exactly the outer band of the most optimistic case for the anti-LDP party.  Going by media polls and analysis my projection is theoretically possible but very unlikely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #383 on: October 18, 2017, 08:02:03 AM »

I didn't know JCP had such strength on the south shore of Shikoku. Any idea why? Doesn't seem like a naturally JCP area (quite traditional).

That is 高知(Kōchi) which is the second most pro-JCP prefecture next to 京都(Kyoto).  I am not sure why but I suspect like Kyodo, the local unions has been more aligned with JCP historically versus SDP or DPJ.  So SDP and DPJ/DP has historically been weaker here and more of the labor based Center-Left vote has gone JCP.

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jaichind
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« Reply #384 on: October 18, 2017, 08:04:24 AM »

I think the day after the election, most of the HP winners (plus pro-HP independents winners) will leave  HP and either join CDP or form a new Centrist party.  From their point of view Kokie did nothing to get them elected and has thrown away a good hand in this election campaign.  I suspect a week after the election HP will have something like 5-10 MPs at best.
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Lachi
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« Reply #385 on: October 18, 2017, 09:00:14 AM »

So, CDP will be by far the largest opposition party in your view, if not on election night itself, within a week?
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #386 on: October 18, 2017, 09:35:53 AM »

Japanese voters are either incredibly fickle or these pollsters need to get better at polling approval ratings.
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jaichind
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« Reply #387 on: October 18, 2017, 10:08:06 AM »

So, CDP will be by far the largest opposition party in your view, if not on election night itself, within a week?

Yep. I am pretty sure about that.  The level of anger in the HP ex-DP candidates, which is the vast majority of the HP candidates, at Koike is getting pretty high.  Right now no one wants to blow this up less it leads to a HP collapse and all of them losing. 

Ironically I still think the prospects of HP candidates where they do not face a DCP or ex-DP independent rival are still better than what CW says.  The CDP surge voters will eventually vote for them versus JCP in order to defeat LDP.  But all these HP winners will know that this is what took place and not because of Koike.
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jaichind
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« Reply #388 on: October 18, 2017, 10:19:28 AM »

CDP PR vote now overtakes that of HP

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jaichind
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« Reply #389 on: October 18, 2017, 10:27:25 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 10:33:30 AM by jaichind »

New Asahi poll

Abe approval/disapproval 38(-2)/40(+2)

Do you want Abe to continue as PM Yes/No 34/51 (wow! yet LDP-KP will win a solid victory)

PR vote

LDP     34(-1)
KP        7(--)
JRP       4(--)
HP       11(-1)
CDP    13(+6)
SDP      1(--)
JCP      5(-1)



It seems it is less about HP losing support to CDP than both HP and JPC lose some support to CDP but CDP also gains from undecided.
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jaichind
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« Reply #390 on: October 18, 2017, 10:50:07 AM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/ldp-heading-to-best-japan-election-result-since-1986-poll-shows

"Japan’s Ruling Party Is Heading to Best Election Result Since 1986, Poll Says"

What Bloomberg news is doing is taking the most optimistic media projections and then come out with the headline.  Hidden in this story is that Abe approval is actually under water and that the most optimistic projections in 2014 has had LDP winning over 310 seats and then the LDP ended up with 290.
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jaichind
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« Reply #391 on: October 18, 2017, 11:41:06 AM »

佐賀(Saga), which is deep Southern Japan, poll.  Saga is one of the most pro-LDP prefectures and LDP-KP usually gets around 10% higher than national average



PR vote

LDP   34.0
KP      6.6
JRP     1.6
HP    14.2
CDP    7.2
SDP    1.3
JCP     2.5

Which is actually a pretty positive poll for HP and not so great poll for LDP.  It could be an older poll.  Or more likely this shows that in Northern Japan (including Tokyo and Osaka) it is CDP > HP in terms of PR vote and in Southern Japan it is HP > CDP in terms of PR vote.
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Vega
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« Reply #392 on: October 18, 2017, 01:48:15 PM »

I'm pretty confident that most of the HP will fold into the CDP at some point after the election. The CDP proved itself competent campaigners and a competent party, beyond just the Communists switching to them, they are also bringing on some undecideds, which is huge.
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jaichind
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« Reply #393 on: October 18, 2017, 03:53:07 PM »

I'm pretty confident that most of the HP will fold into the CDP at some point after the election. The CDP proved itself competent campaigners and a competent party, beyond just the Communists switching to them, they are also bringing on some undecideds, which is huge.

I am pretty impressed with what the CDP pulled off since they had no resources.  To be fair DP leader 前原 誠司 (Maehara Seiji) helped too.  What he offered Koike was "if you take all the DP candidates, then you get all of the DP campaign funds, if you take some of the DP candidates then you get some of the DP campaign funds."  So when Koike only took some of the DP candidates, Mehara, despite being from the DP Right, routed funds to ex-DP but now CDP candidates since they were part of the original DP lineup. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #394 on: October 18, 2017, 03:59:29 PM »

Latest and last JX Tokyo poll



HP is falling further behind as CDP surges

LDP   30(+1)
KP       5(-1)
HP    16(-2)
CDP   23(+5)
JCP     8(+1)

With these numbers I suspect HP might get a total of zero seats in Tokyo FPTP district seats with CDP gaining at least 3-4 seats from DP's 1 last time.

Same poll also had Tokyo seat projections


          District          PR
LDP     18-23          6-8
KP         1-1            1-2
HP        0-2            3-4
CDP      1-5            4-6
JDP       0-0            1-2


My current projections are on the negative side of their projection for LDP although I am making the bold assumption that the CDP PR surge voter would still vote tactically HP over JCP to defeat LDP.  If they do not do that in sufficient numbers then it will be HP 0 district seats.

          District          PR
LDP       18               6
KP          1               2
HP          2               3
CDP       4                4
JDP        0                2
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jaichind
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« Reply #395 on: October 18, 2017, 06:38:54 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 06:48:11 AM by jaichind »

Latest projection from me

I still hold to the 59% turnout.  JRP, JCP, and HP PR vote share dialed back and CDP moved upward.  I still think under these circumstances HP is under-polling so I have the gap between CDP and HP as pretty close.  The fall of HP pretty much finishes HP off from several marginal seats but I still have the CDP surge still voting HP in district seats.  LDP-KP at 289 seats which is still a minor setback for Abe.

              District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          195         62      257             31.8%
KP               9         23        32             12.8%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7           8       15                6.2%
HP             30         31        61              18.2%
CDP           16         35        51              19.2%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         15       16                9.1%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        9           0         9     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  13           0       13      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465


If we take the PR vote and categorize them in historical perspective since 2000 we have

              LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       44.66              25.01             20.67              9.11

Which would make this year similar to 2013 but only with LDP-KP somewhat weaker and Third Pole stronger.  This chart also puts the CDP surge in perspective.  It is merely reversion to the mean if we view HP as a Third Pole party.  
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Sestak
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« Reply #396 on: October 18, 2017, 07:45:28 PM »

Follow-up to my earlier question: If Abe has no chance of actually being voted out, what are the chances that this ends up like the UK, as in, a win in terms of a majority but an embarrassment politically?
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jaichind
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« Reply #397 on: October 18, 2017, 08:01:05 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 08:04:25 PM by jaichind »

Follow-up to my earlier question: If Abe has no chance of actually being voted out, what are the chances that this ends up like the UK, as in, a win in terms of a majority but an embarrassment politically?

For that to take place I think LDP-KP has to be driven below 261 seats which means they no longer have a majority in all committees.   If that were to take place then Abe might be dumped right away.  The chances of that is nearly zero, even with my projections.   I think if LDP-KP were below 280 then that will look like a significant setback so that Abe might be dumped in Sept 2018 LDP Prez elections.  That seems possible using my projections but nearly impossible if you go with various media house projections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #398 on: October 18, 2017, 08:22:46 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 08:53:37 PM by jaichind »

秋田(Akita) PR poll.   This prefecture is the strongest LDP prefecture in the North and LDP-KP tends to win around 5% more than national average.




LDP     40.1
KP        5.4
JRP       1.5
HP      20.4
CDP      7.1
SDP      0.5
JCP       4.5

Overall a pretty positive poll for LDP under the circumstances.  CDP seems low when compared to other PR polls that show a CDP surge.  This prefecture is quite rural so it could be the CDP surge are in the urban areas which means that HP still significantly stronger than CDP when rural areas.
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jaichind
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« Reply #399 on: October 19, 2017, 04:40:35 AM »

山形(Yamagata) PR poll.  Yamagata is a Northern rural prefecture that has been very strong for LDP but has been trending away from LDP.  At the PR level LDP-KP tend to be around 4%-5% above the national level.



LDP    36.4
KP       7.3
JRP      1.2
HP     21.1
CDP   11.0
SDP     1.6
JCP      3.9

HP seems high relative the recent national polls.  It could be an older poll and like the 秋田(Akita) poll shows that in rural Japan the CDP surge is more muted.
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