Japan Oct 22 2017
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:19:10 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Japan Oct 22 2017
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 12 13 14 15 16 [17] 18 19 20 21 22 ... 29
Author Topic: Japan Oct 22 2017  (Read 40939 times)
Cape Verde
asianzzang
Rookie
**
Posts: 89
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #400 on: October 19, 2017, 05:30:37 AM »

Well, CDP didn't field any candidates in Akita and Yamagata so HP will be higher than CDP in those states. Also, LDP upper house candidate in Yamagata lost to a joint opposition candidate by 21% points in last year's election. Regardless of how strong a candidate is, a 21%-point loss means that LDP is quite unpopular in that state.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #401 on: October 19, 2017, 06:14:26 AM »

福島(Fukushima) PR poll.  Fukushima is a fairly anti-LDP Northern Japan prefecture that tends to give LDP-KP 4%-5% less votes than the national average.



LDP     36.3
KP        6.5
JRP      1.4
HP      15.4
CDP    10.1
SDP     1.1
JCP      4.6

Pretty positive poll for LDP.  Again HP stronger than CDP.  It seems that in the 東北(Tohoku) region HP is just stronger than CDP unlike Tokyo and most likely the Tokyo suburb Kanto regions.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #402 on: October 19, 2017, 06:20:12 AM »

New Asahi poll

Abe approval/disapproval 38(-2)/40(+2)

Do you want Abe to continue as PM Yes/No 34/51 (wow! yet LDP-KP will win a solid victory)

PR vote

LDP     34(-1)
KP        7(--)
JRP       4(--)
HP       11(-1)
CDP    13(+6)
SDP      1(--)
JCP      5(-1)



It seems it is less about HP losing support to CDP than both HP and JPC lose some support to CDP but CDP also gains from undecided.

Same poll breaks out the PR vote by certain age groups



18-29 year olds   LDP 41 HP 13 CDP 6
60s                    LDP 27  HP 10 CDP 20

The youth clearly lean Right while people in the 60s lean left.  They do not show it but I am sure if they had result for 70+ it will swing back to being pro-LDP again.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #403 on: October 19, 2017, 06:43:31 AM »

Well, CDP didn't field any candidates in Akita and Yamagata so HP will be higher than CDP in those states. Also, LDP upper house candidate in Yamagata lost to a joint opposition candidate by 21% points in last year's election. Regardless of how strong a candidate is, a 21%-point loss means that LDP is quite unpopular in that state.

Of course one can flip it around and say perhaps that because HP became strong in 東北(Tohoku) that is why the entire DP organization went over to HP where as in other urban areas some of the DP organization went over to CDP.   

As for 2016 Yamagata Upper House election that race saw some of the greatest ticket splitting I have seen.  The common opposition independent candidate (a former DPJ MP herself that was barely beaten in 2013 running for re-election in a very strong LDP year) was supported by DP SDP LP and JCP and won by a landslide (21% like you said.)  But at the same time the LDP-KP won over 54% of the PR vote in Yamagata.  It seems that the Yamagata LPD rural vote was angry with Abe about TPP and voted against LDP in the district vote to show their anger but voted LDP in the PR vote (I guess LDP is generic and not necessary Abe in their eyes.)  TPP is less of an issue this year but economic stagnation is.  The trend in Yamagata is going to be against LDP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #404 on: October 19, 2017, 06:47:45 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 06:54:10 AM by jaichind »

The magazine 週刊文春(bunshun) came out with their projection.  This magazine is fairly right wing and usually comes out with fairly anti-LDP projections.  This fits my view that various media outlets overcompensates for their known house effects.  



             District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          189         62      251             31.5%
KP               8         22        30             12.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9         12       21                9.0%
HP             34         32        66              18.0%
CDP           17         29        46              16.5%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         17       18               10.0%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(OPPN)  25           0       25      (anti-LDP independents)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465
 
This is fairly similar to my projection other than LDP and CDP are a bit weaker than my projection while JCP and JRP are a bit stronger.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #405 on: October 19, 2017, 07:56:24 AM »

Ibaraki News came out with a PR poll for 茨城(Ibaraki) and also a PR vote share/seat projection for the entire North Kanto PR section that Ibaraki is part of.  Ibaraki is a very strong pro-LDP prefecture for a prefecture in Northern Japan.  It usually votes on PR 4%-5% than national average for LDP-KP



The PR poll for Ibaraki is

LDP      41.7
KP         5.2
JRP        0.4
HP       16.5
CDP       6.0
SDP       0.4
JCP        5.0

For North Kanto PR region their projection are
             
            Vote share      Seats
LDP         33.83%           7
KP           13.89%           3
JRP            3.70%           0
HP           21.32%           4
CDP         15.71%           3
SDP           1.80%           0
JCP            8.75%           2

which is pretty close to my current projection for North Kanto which is somewhat weaker for LDP and a bit stronger for everyone else.

            Vote share      Seats
LDP         31.23%           6
KP           14.27%           3
JRP            4.41%           0
HP           22.67%           5
CDP         16.02%           3
SDP           1.04%           0
JCP            9.94%           2
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #406 on: October 19, 2017, 10:59:37 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 07:10:30 PM by jaichind »

Final Nikkei projection which is slightly more pro-LDP than a week ago but the Nikkei projection has been the most anti-LDP of this election cycle.  They now have LDP-KP at 297 which at this stage is not even that far off from my LDP-KP at 289 seats.



LDP      262
KP         35
JRP        10
HP         55
CDP       54
SDP         1
JCP        18
Ind        30 (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

KP at 35 and JCP at 18 implies LP at 26 PR seats and JCP at 17 PR seats.  This implies that Nikkei is expecting a lower turnout election (52%-54%) than my high turnout election (59%-60%) assumption.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #407 on: October 19, 2017, 11:22:56 AM »

Yomiuri analysis of 114 "battleground" districts.




A week ago the distribution was
             
         ahead    neck-to-neck       behind
LDP       4             100                   6
HP         0              54                 21
CDP       3              22                   4


Now it is

         ahead    neck-to-neck       behind
LDP     16               80                  14
HP         2              42                 21
CDP       6              18                   5


LDP and CDP gained ground and HP lost ground.

It is interesting that out of 114 battleground districts LDP is in the fray in 110 of them.  The other 4 must be 山梨(Yamanashi) 2nd where two LDP candidates are running both as independents, 岡山   (Okayama) 3rd with 2 LDP independents,  北海道(Hokkaido) 10th where it is KP vs CDP, and 神奈川   (Kanagawa) 6th where it is also KP vs CDP vs JRP.

While there is some risk that KP will lose these two seats all the noise about these two seats being neck-to-neck feels like KP drama to make sure their vote base and organization goes all out to make sure they win.  In the end KP will win all their seats.




Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #408 on: October 19, 2017, 11:27:25 AM »

It seems the hurricane will hit Southern Japan at 9pm 10/22, after the polls close.  But it seems it will be raining across Japan the entire election day.



Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #409 on: October 19, 2017, 01:07:17 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 01:56:04 PM by jaichind »

LDP seat projections in 2014 by media house

NicoNico   289
Asahi       305
Nikkei      308
Yomiuri    308
Sankei     311
Chunichi  314
Mainichi    320

Result:  290

Of course I missed on the other side.  My projection was LDP 249.



This time it seems to be


Nikkei      262
Yomiuri    270
Asahi       275
Chunichi   275
NicoNico   284
Sankei     286
Mainichi   292

My projection is 257
Logged
Zuza
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 359
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #410 on: October 19, 2017, 06:02:39 PM »

Same poll breaks out the PR vote by certain age groups



18-29 year olds   LDP 41 HP 13 CDP 6
60s                    LDP 27  HP 10 CDP 20

The youth clearly lean Right while people in the 60s lean left.  They do not show it but I am sure if they had result for 70+ it will swing back to being pro-LDP again.

How to explain all this?

I think I've never seen breakdown by age groups before.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #411 on: October 19, 2017, 07:01:45 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 07:06:22 PM by jaichind »

Yomiuri final poll for PR (difference from a week ago)

LDP   33(+1)
KP     8(+1)
JRP     5(+1)
HP    13(-3)
CDP   17(+3)
JCP      6(--)

CDP gaining from HP.  Rest are just slight increases for other parties as the election gets closer and some of the undecided break for one party or another.  Results pretty similar to Asahi poll.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #412 on: October 19, 2017, 07:04:09 PM »

Same poll breaks out the PR vote by certain age groups



18-29 year olds   LDP 41 HP 13 CDP 6
60s                    LDP 27  HP 10 CDP 20

The youth clearly lean Right while people in the 60s lean left.  They do not show it but I am sure if they had result for 70+ it will swing back to being pro-LDP again.

How to explain all this?

I think I've never seen breakdown by age groups before.

Japanese youth tend to prioritize conformity and social acceptance.  LDP seems to represent status quo, stability, and social acceptance.    As they get older and face more difficult economic problems then some of them start to turn against LDP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #413 on: October 19, 2017, 07:12:34 PM »

Final Nikkei projection which is slightly more pro-LDP than a week ago but the Nikkei projection has been the most anti-LDP of this election cycle.  They now have LDP-KP at 297 which at this stage is not even that far off from my LDP-KP at 289 seats.



LDP      262
KP         35
JRP        10
HP         55
CDP       54
SDP         1
JCP        18
Ind        30 (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

KP at 35 and JCP at 18 implies LP at 26 PR seats and JCP at 17 PR seats.  This implies that Nikkei is expecting a lower turnout election (52%-54%) than my high turnout election (59%-60%) assumption.


Same poll has

Abe approval/disapproval   38/47

Party support

LDP    38
KP        5
HP      10
CDP    15
JCP      5

PR vote  (which seems to be the clone of Yomiuri PR vote)
LDP    33
KP       8
JRP      5
HP     13
CDP   17
JCP     5
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #414 on: October 19, 2017, 07:16:16 PM »

PR vote curve.  CDP surge continues as HP slowly declines.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #415 on: October 19, 2017, 08:19:44 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 08:22:39 PM by jaichind »

go2senkyo.com PR poll also gives breakdown by PR section.   I am surprised how weak JRP is in  近畿(Kinki).  

                                                       LDP    HP    KP    JCP    CDP     JRP
Total                                                ~37  ~13   ~7    ~7     ~20    
北海道 (Hokkaido)                             ~30    ~7    ??    ~10    ~25    
東北(Tohoku)                                    ~35   ~15  ~10  ~10    ~17    
北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)       ~37   ~13  ~10  ~10    ~17    
南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)  ~30  ~15   ~10  ~10   ~17    
東京 (Tokyo)                                     ~37   ~15    ~7   ~7    ~17
北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)               ~37   ~15   ??     ??     ~17    
東海 (Tokai)                                      ~37   ~15   ~7    ~7    ~20    
近畿 (Kinki)                                      ~35   ~13   ??     ~7    ~15    ~7
中国(Chugoku)                                 ~40    ~13   ~7    ??    ~15      
四国 (Shikoku)                                  ~35   ~13  ~13   ??     ~15      
九州 (Kyūshū)                                   ~38    ~13  ~10  ??     ~15    

Total


北海道 (Hokkaido)


東北(Tohoku)  


北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)  


南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)


東京 (Tokyo)


北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)


東海 (Tokai)


近畿 (Kinki)


中国(Chugoku)


四国 (Shikoku)


九州 (Kyūshū)
Logged
Zuza
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 359
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #416 on: October 19, 2017, 09:28:18 PM »

Same poll breaks out the PR vote by certain age groups



18-29 year olds   LDP 41 HP 13 CDP 6
60s                    LDP 27  HP 10 CDP 20

The youth clearly lean Right while people in the 60s lean left.  They do not show it but I am sure if they had result for 70+ it will swing back to being pro-LDP again.

How to explain all this?

I think I've never seen breakdown by age groups before.

Japanese youth tend to prioritize conformity and social acceptance.  LDP seems to represent status quo, stability, and social acceptance.    As they get older and face more difficult economic problems then some of them start to turn against LDP.

And those who are 70+ support LDP just because elderly people in general tend to be conservative? How do you think, support for opposition peaks in 60-69 or in some younger age group?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #417 on: October 20, 2017, 06:09:57 AM »

Political analyst 三浦博史(Miura Hiroshi) final projection

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          217         68      285             35.0%
KP               9         24        33             13.5%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7           8       15               6.0%
HP             18         24        42             14.0%
CDP           10         36        46             20.0%
SDP             1           1         2               1.5%
JCP              1         15       16               9.5%
Ind            26           0       26   (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Which given the LDP-KP PR vote share seems at least internally consistent. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #418 on: October 20, 2017, 06:37:23 AM »

There seems to be a surge in early voting.  Part of it is because of greater interest in the election and partly because of the likelihood of rain election day due to the hurricane.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #419 on: October 20, 2017, 06:39:59 AM »


Japanese youth tend to prioritize conformity and social acceptance.  LDP seems to represent status quo, stability, and social acceptance.    As they get older and face more difficult economic problems then some of them start to turn against LDP.

And those who are 70+ support LDP just because elderly people in general tend to be conservative? How do you think, support for opposition peaks in 60-69 or in some younger age group?

I am not sure.  I have seen data in the past that showed this

2016 Upper House election exit poll which projected results in terms of seats if only a certain age group could vote



Real result was LDP-KP 70 Opposition Parties 51

       LDP-KP    Opposition 
10s        72             49
20s        82             39    -> strongest age group with ruling parties
30s        75             46
40s        71             50
50s        71             50
60s        61             60     -> strongest age group with opposition parties
70s        70             51



I suspect it is because people in their 60s came of age in the 1970s during a Leftist surge in Japan and people in the 70s came of age in the 1960s which is the heyday of the Japanese economic boom which many associate with LDP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #420 on: October 20, 2017, 06:57:12 AM »

兵庫(Hyōgo) poll on level of interest in the election.  Chart also shows similar polls in the past (red line) followed by real turnout (blue line.) 



This would suggest that turnout should surge back up to 2012 levels.  This is somewhat surprising as  兵庫(Hyōgo) has become fairly noncompetitive this election cycle with HP JRP and DCP-JCP all going their separate ways giving the LDP an easy victory.  Of  course there will be rain election day.
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #421 on: October 20, 2017, 07:02:52 AM »

Who usually does better with early voting?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #422 on: October 20, 2017, 09:44:57 AM »

Who usually does better with early voting?

For sure all parties other than LDP KP and JCP.  Higher early voting for now is really indicative of higher turnout which tends to help non-JCP opposition parties.
Logged
Zuza
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 359
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #423 on: October 20, 2017, 10:34:40 AM »


Japanese youth tend to prioritize conformity and social acceptance.  LDP seems to represent status quo, stability, and social acceptance.    As they get older and face more difficult economic problems then some of them start to turn against LDP.

And those who are 70+ support LDP just because elderly people in general tend to be conservative? How do you think, support for opposition peaks in 60-69 or in some younger age group?

I am not sure.  I have seen data in the past that showed this

2016 Upper House election exit poll which projected results in terms of seats if only a certain age group could vote



Real result was LDP-KP 70 Opposition Parties 51

       LDP-KP    Opposition 
10s        72             49
20s        82             39    -> strongest age group with ruling parties
30s        75             46
40s        71             50
50s        71             50
60s        61             60     -> strongest age group with opposition parties
70s        70             51



I suspect it is because people in their 60s came of age in the 1970s during a Leftist surge in Japan and people in the 70s came of age in the 1960s which is the heyday of the Japanese economic boom which many associate with LDP.

Thanks! Initially I thought there is a huge age gap, but now it seems that voter preferences are basically uniform except 20s and 60s.
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,268
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #424 on: October 20, 2017, 12:58:45 PM »

If CDP and HP were magically merged into one party with one list, and merging all of their support together, what would the results look like?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 12 13 14 15 16 [17] 18 19 20 21 22 ... 29  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.132 seconds with 12 queries.