Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

There are 4 seats I am calling that I am going out on the limb on where pretty much no one making the same call I am.  We will see if I end up being right in any of the 4.

山形(Yamagata) 3rd.  In 2014 it was

LDP          42.9
LDP rebel  42.1
DPJ            8.6
JCP            5.8

In 2016 a deal was already made between the LDP rebel and DP that the DP will back the LDP rebel the next election.  So this time the LDP rebel joined HP so it will be LDP vs HP vs JCP vs HRP.  I project that the HP candidate can retain enough of his personal vote and the pull in most of the DPJ vote for a HP victory when everyone else projects a LDP victory.



埼玉(Saitama) 12th.  In 2014 it was

LDP       38.6
FPG       30.5
DPJ       22.1
JCP         8.8

This time the FPG candidate actually joined DP before joining and running as HP.    The DPJ candidate was actually moved to 北海道(Hokkaido) by DP when the FPG candidate joined and will now run in 北海道(Hokkaido) 4th as a CDP candidate.  So the race will be LDP vs HP vs JCP.  I say that the ex-FPG now HP candidate will put in enough of the FPG and DPJ base to defeat LDP.  Everyone else says LDP wins.



滋賀(Shiga) 4th.  Back in 2014 it was

LDP       38.7
JIP        26.3
DPJ       26.2
JCP         8.8

The LDP incumbent was trapped in various scandals, resigned from LDP and persuaded by the LDP to retire and not run as an independent.    The JIP candidate actually joined ORA/JRP instead of DP when JIP broke up in 2015.  He then in 2016 ran for mayor of for Kōka city and was elected. The DPJ candidate joined DP and then HP and will run for HP.  So the race is LDP vs HP vs JCP.  I say that the scandal of the previous LDP incumbent plus nominal support of JRP for HP would pull the HP candidate through.  No one else is making this call and everyone insist the LDP candidate will win.



鹿児島(Kagoshima) 1st district. Back in 2014 it was

LDP     44.1
DPJ     31.0
JIP      19.7
JCP       5.2

The LDP incumbent has retired.  The JIP candidate joined ORA/JRP in 2015 when JIP split and will run for JRP.  The DPJ candidate joined CDP with JCP support.  So the race will be LDP vs CDP vs JRP.
 HP does not seem to be backing JRP in this district and most likely is tacitly backing CDP.  I say that the LDP incumbent not running will cut a few percentage points from the LDP vote share and that JRP will not repeat the JIP performance in 2014 with the result CDP winning.  Pretty much everyone else say that the pro-LDP lean of  鹿児島(Kagoshima) will carry LDP to victory.
 

[Cape Verde]

Agree with all four predictions except one, Saitama 12th. Although FPG and JIP shared same party roots, I still think being a former FPG candidate will cause at least a decent amount of left-wing voters to vote for a JCP candidate or even a LDP candidate.

Meanwhile, I think rural seats like Niigata 6th or Tokushima 1st can be much closer than what people thought.


Also, thank you for keeping me updated throughout this election campaign.

[jaichind]

Special Interesting places to look at results are 新潟(Niigata) and Tokyo.

In 新潟(Niigata) it was LDP 5 DPJ 1 in 2014.  This time around all opposition parties (HP CDP SDP JCP) have de facto come around behinda common slate of candidates (1 CDP and 5 ex-DP independents)  in pretty much all 6 districts.   Only in  新潟(Niigata) 2nd is JCP running against an ex-DP independent.  It seems this time it will be LDP 2 anti-LDP 4.  Many projections even have it at LDP 1 anti-LDP 5.  It shows the power of an all opposition front to take on LDP 1-on-1.

In Tokyo the campaign started with doom for LDP as HP seems poised to sweep the polls.  Then HP lost momentum quickly and lost a lot of vote share to CDP.  As this process continued to last week it seems the LDP was in a position to win pretty much all Tokyo seats save perhaps 2-3 seats with HP and CDP evenly splitting the anti-LDP.  Now it seems the continued decline of HP and rise of CDP in Tokyo now has an opposite effect as CDP is now gaining enough support to pose a real threat to LDP in more and more seats.  Ideally for Tokyo LDP the election should have been last weekend.  The fact the election is today is actually more risky for LDP as it can stand to lose a bunch of seats to CDP.

[jaichind]

Tokyo in day turnout at 9am is 2.48%  Back in 2014 at 9am was 1.89%

[Cape Verde]

Tokyo in day turnout at 9am is 2.48%  Back in 2014 at 9am was 1.89%

From which website do you get turnout data?

[jaichind]

京都(Kyoto) in day turnout at 2.77% at 9am.  Back in 2014 it was 1.95% at 9am.
神奈川(Kanagawa) in day turnout at 2.89% at 9am.  Back in 2014 it was 2.13% at 9am.
兵庫(Hyōgo) in day turnout at 2.14% at 9am.  Back in 2014 it was 1.63% at 9am.

[jaichind]

Tokyo in day turnout at 9am is 2.48%  Back in 2014 at 9am was 1.89%

From which website do you get turnout data?

Not easy.  You have to find the prefecture election commission website and sometimes they have info.  Sometimes the election commission tweets out this info

[jaichind]

愛知(Aichi) in day turnout at 10am 8.28%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 7.60%
Tokyo in day turnout at 1am at 5.45%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 4.42%

[jaichind]

Here is Tokyo election commission

http://www.h29syuugiinsen.metro.tokyo.jp/
http://sokuho.h29syuugiinsen.metro.tokyo.jp/

[Oryxslayer]

愛知(Aichi) in day turnout at 10am 8.28%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 7.60%
Tokyo in day turnout at 1am at 5.45%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 4.42%

The million dollar question - Is turnout going to stay up all day (in addition to the larger early vote) or are people getting to the polls now for fear of rain?

[jaichind]

愛知(Aichi) in day turnout at 10am 8.28%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 7.60%
Tokyo in day turnout at 1am at 5.45%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 4.42%

The million dollar question - Is turnout going to stay up all day (in addition to the larger early vote) or are people getting to the polls now for fear of rain?

Exactly.  If this keeps up then turnout will most likely rise to something like 59%.  That would be bad news for LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) in day 10am turnout 9.63%.  In 2014 it was 6.77%.  If this keeps up LDP-KP might be reduced to 3 seats out of 12 versus 9 in 2014.

[jaichind]

Early voting turnout by prefecture


秋田(Akita) early turnout of 25% seems massive.

[Vega]

Jaichind, from the list of websites you posted for results, which one is the best? I like NHK's visual presentation template personally.

[jaichind]

愛知(Aichi) in day turnout at 11am 13.45%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 13.90%
Tokyo in day turnout at 11am at 9.50%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 8.76%
神奈川(Kanagawa) in day turnout at 10.74% at 11am.  Back in 2014 it was 9.67% at 11am.
埼玉(Saitama) in day turnout at 9.46% at 11am.  Back in 2014 it was 8.45% at 11am.

The turnout surge slowing down.

[jaichind]

Jaichind, from the list of websites you posted for results, which one is the best? I like NHK's visual presentation template personally.

I tend to go with NHK and Asahi.  Both tends to be the fastest in reporting results and the super set of these two websites tends to give you the must up-to-date picture.   

[jaichind]

In day turnout dropping relative to 2014 as the storm rolls in

BTW, I got my early voting numbers wrong.  They were up to the day before the final day of early voting.  Chart is updated with correct numbers

           2017    2014      2012
11:00  12.24     11.08　14.03
14:00  21.83     22.66　27.40
16:00  26.31     29.11　34.87
18:00　            34.98　41.77
19:30　            37.72　45.42
20:00               40.01   47.82
Early   20.01     12.65   11.50
Final  　            52.66　59.32

I think we are looking at turnout of around 54% or so if the relative turnout continues to fall like this. 

[jaichind]

A few cities in Southern Japan will not be able to finish counting tonight and most likely will report results Monday.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Great job with that thread jaichind. Is there such thing like exit polls in Japan?

[jaichind]

Great job with that thread jaichind. Is there such thing like exit polls in Japan?

Yes.  Will come out at 8pm Tokyo time (7am EST)

[jaichind]

神奈川(Kanagawa) turnout

10:00  6.16(+1.21)
11:00 10.74(+1.07)
14:00 21.35(-1.94)
16:00 26.26(-4.43)
18:00 30.18(-6.92)

[jaichind]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

Should be the link to live stream of NHK coverage.  Most likely will start 7:45PM Tokyo time (6:45AM EST).  It will be in Japanese of course.  At 8PM they should come out with the exit polls.

[jaichind]

茨城(Ibaraki) turnout pattern.  It seems here turnout will fall below 2014 levels.  Although overalll this prefecture is fairly noncompetitive.
 
10:00  8.38(+0.02)
11:00 12.92(-1.46)
14:00 20.70(-5.49)
16:00 24.00(-8.77)
18:00 26.42(-11.65)
Early voting 23.65(+9.20)

[jaichind]

It seems as the 6pm turnout comes it that overall turnout will be below 52%

[jaichind]

Final prediction based on now clear patterns of lower turnout due to the storm.  LDP-KP at 295.


              District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          195         67      262             32.4%
KP               9         24        33             13.3%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              6           5       11                5.3%
HP             30         31        61              18.0%
CDP           17         33        50              19.2%
SDP             1           0         1                1.6%
JCP              1         16       17                9.3%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        9           0         9     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  13           0       13      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
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