Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls broken down between PR and district



Shows JCP PR falling to around 10 seat and DCP surging to mid 30s.

[jaichind]

Koike indicates that exit poll results are disappointing and that she will take responsibility for the results. 

[Lachi]

Koike indicates that exit poll results are disappointing and that she will take responsibility for the results. 

A.K.A she'll probably resign.

[Oryxslayer]

Koike indicates that exit poll results are disappointing and that she will take responsibility for the results. 

A.K.A she'll probably resign.

Why would she resign - HP is her own personality party. Plus she isn't a MP, she is the govnor of Tokyo. More likely is that she won't raise a finger to stop the MP exodus to the CDP post election.

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  188
KP     25
JRP     4
HP    30
CDP  34
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          201       147       54
KP              24          6       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             32           9       23
CDP           32           7       25
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              7           0        7
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  14         14

[Lachi]

Are results normally this slow to come in?

[jaichind]

There are 4 seats I am calling that I am going out on the limb on where pretty much no one making the same call I am.  We will see if I end up being right in any of the 4.

山形(Yamagata) 3rd.  In 2014 it was

LDP          42.9
LDP rebel  42.1
DPJ            8.6
JCP            5.8

In 2016 a deal was already made between the LDP rebel and DP that the DP will back the LDP rebel the next election.  So this time the LDP rebel joined HP so it will be LDP vs HP vs JCP vs HRP.  I project that the HP candidate can retain enough of his personal vote and the pull in most of the DPJ vote for a HP victory when everyone else projects a LDP victory.



埼玉(Saitama) 12th.  In 2014 it was

LDP       38.6
FPG       30.5
DPJ       22.1
JCP         8.8

This time the FPG candidate actually joined DP before joining and running as HP.    The DPJ candidate was actually moved to 北海道(Hokkaido) by DP when the FPG candidate joined and will now run in 北海道(Hokkaido) 4th as a CDP candidate.  So the race will be LDP vs HP vs JCP.  I say that the ex-FPG now HP candidate will put in enough of the FPG and DPJ base to defeat LDP.  Everyone else says LDP wins.



滋賀(Shiga) 4th.  Back in 2014 it was

LDP       38.7
JIP        26.3
DPJ       26.2
JCP         8.8

The LDP incumbent was trapped in various scandals, resigned from LDP and persuaded by the LDP to retire and not run as an independent.    The JIP candidate actually joined ORA/JRP instead of DP when JIP broke up in 2015.  He then in 2016 ran for mayor of for Kōka city and was elected. The DPJ candidate joined DP and then HP and will run for HP.  So the race is LDP vs HP vs JCP.  I say that the scandal of the previous LDP incumbent plus nominal support of JRP for HP would pull the HP candidate through.  No one else is making this call and everyone insist the LDP candidate will win.



鹿児島(Kagoshima) 1st district. Back in 2014 it was

LDP     44.1
DPJ     31.0
JIP      19.7
JCP       5.2

The LDP incumbent has retired.  The JIP candidate joined ORA/JRP in 2015 when JIP split and will run for JRP.  The DPJ candidate joined CDP with JCP support.  So the race will be LDP vs CDP vs JRP.
 HP does not seem to be backing JRP in this district and most likely is tacitly backing CDP.  I say that the LDP incumbent not running will cut a few percentage points from the LDP vote share and that JRP will not repeat the JIP performance in 2014 with the result CDP winning.  Pretty much everyone else say that the pro-LDP lean of  鹿児島(Kagoshima) will carry LDP to victory.
 

So far 2 of my 4 "crazy schemes" have not worked.  山形(Yamagata) 3rd and 滋賀(Shiga) 4th both called for LDP.  I am really surprised at 滋賀(Shiga) 4th.  I guess the 2014 JIP vote must have went LDP.  And this took place despite the scandal.

[jaichind]

Are results normally this slow to come in?

Yes.  And the rain makes counting even slower.

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  193
KP     25
JRP     4
HP    30
CDP  34
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is
                
                Total    District   PR
LDP          204       150       54
KP              24          6       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             32           9       23
CDP           34           8       26
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              8           1        7
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  15         15

[Lachi]

CDP had a call retracted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are results normally this slow to come in?

Yes.  And the rain makes counting even slower.

>: (
雨が私を嫌う!!

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  198
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    30
CDP  34
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          204       154       54
KP              24          6       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             33         10       23
CDP           35           8       27
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              8           1        7
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  15         15

[jaichind]

It seems clear CDP will defeat HP on the PR section.  Overall seats will most likely be neck-to-neck.

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  202
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    30
CDP  34
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          210       156       54
KP              24          6       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             33         10       23
CDP           35           8       27
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              8           1        7
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  16         16

[jaichind]

Count going on LDP's direction most as more lean LDP seats being called.  Battleground seats still being counted

So far on NHK it is

LDP  209
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    31
CDP  34
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          215       161       54
KP              24          6       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             33         10       23
CDP           35           8       27
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              8           1        7
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  16         16

[jaichind]

NPD at around 10% in Hokkaido PR with 8% of the vote in.   Impressive.  I earlier had them at around such a level of support but figured polarization would push them to around 7% or so.  Perhaps I was wrong.

[Oryxslayer]

Abe speaking on NHK.

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  212
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    31
CDP  34
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   17

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          220       166       54
KP              24          6       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             34         10       24
CDP           37           8       29
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              8           1        7
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  16         16

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  220
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    32
CDP  35
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   17

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          228       174       54
KP              25          7       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             36         11       25
CDP           38           9       29
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              9           1        8
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  17         17

[Oryxslayer]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  220
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    32
CDP  35
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   17

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          228       174       54
KP              25          7       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             36         11       25
CDP           38           9       29
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              9           1        8
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  17         17

Do you know which seat the Pro-LDP inde is in?

[Oryxslayer]

Koike speaking.

[jaichind]

I think LDP-KP will get to around 305 seats.  They will under-perform on PR but make it up on the district side.

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  236
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    35
CDP  37
SDP    1
JCP     8
Ind   19

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          242       188       54
KP              26          8       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             38         13       25
CDP           39         10       29
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              9           1        8
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  16         16

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  220
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    32
CDP  35
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   17

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          228       174       54
KP              25          7       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             36         11       25
CDP           38           9       29
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              9           1        8
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  17         17

Do you know which seat the Pro-LDP inde is in?

I am a bit confused.  There are actually two pro-LDP independents that won.  茨城(Ibaraki) 7th and 岡山(Okayama) 3rd.  Although I think the 岡山(Okayama) 3rd winner will be retroactively nominated as LDP candidate.


 

[jaichind]

Off with my kid to Chinese school.  Will post more later this afternoon.  Looks like a good but not great night for LDP.