Japan Oct 22 2017

[Oryxslayer]

Most projections now putting LDP/KP close to or above 2/3s - which would make the whole opposition fiascos of the last month be for naught.

[jaichind]

Most projections now putting LDP/KP close to or above 2/3s - which would make the whole opposition fiascos of the last month be for naught.

Note a lot of these projections include LDP independents that are nominated retrospectively. Even without them I think LDP-KP gets barely above 310. 

[jaichind]

Best guess now is LDP-KP at 313 seats plus 4 pro-LDP independents of which 3 will be retrospectively nominated by LDP.

[Vega]

Best guess now is LDP-KP at 313 seats plus 4 pro-LDP independents of which 3 will be retrospectively nominated by LDP.

That would just barely give them a 2/3rds majority.

[jaichind]

JRP down to 3 seats in Osaka.  The DCP surge really hurt them.  KP actually lost a district seat.  A first since 2009 (including Upper House elections) 

[jaichind]

Best guess on LDP-KP PR vote share is around 45% which is pretty close to my prediction.

[jaichind]

Tokyo ends up being LDP 19 KP 1 CDP 4 HP 1

[Vega]

10 seats are left - any idea on how they will fall?

[Oryxslayer]

I'm putting together my basemap, jaichind, do you happen to know where all the pro-LDP indes are who will be retconned in? The news sites tend to be listing them as LDP, and I want to distinguish the two.

[mileslunn]

Wikipedia shows the Japanese Communist Party actually won a constituent seat.  What part of Japan is that?  I didn't know they had a Red Belt although I know the JCP tends to do better in Kyoto of most places.

That being said a decent showing by the government but not the landslide they were hoping for, but they didn't lose their majority outright unlike some early election called elsewhere earlier this year where the governing party entered with an even bigger lead.

[jaichind]

I'm putting together my basemap, jaichind, do you happen to know where all the pro-LDP indes are who will be retconned in? The news sites tend to be listing them as LDP, and I want to distinguish the two.

3 of them.  埼玉 11th 岡山 3rd and 山梨 2nd.  茨城 7th the LDP rebel incumbant beat the LDP candidate but for now will not join LDP.  神奈川 4th was a shock. CDP candidate beat the LDP and LDP rebel incumbant.  For once a LDP split caused them a seat.  

[jaichind]

Wikipedia shows the Japanese Communist Party actually won a constituent seat.  What part of Japan is that?  I didn't know they had a Red Belt although I know the JCP tends to do better in Kyoto of most places.

That being said a decent showing by the government but not the landslide they were hoping for, but they didn't lose their majority outright unlike some early election called elsewhere earlier this year where the governing party entered with an even bigger lead.

Okinawa 1st.  They won the same seat in 2014 in a 3 way race. It was JCP vs LDP vs JRP.  The anti JCP vote was split just like in 2014.   

[jaichind]

10 seats are left - any idea on how they will fall?

Only 6 are left now
2 district seats where count must have stopped due to storm.  HP will win one of them and LDP has the upper hand in the other.  4 other PR seats which I suspect JCP and KP will win most of them.

[jaichind]

LDP-KP on track to get 311-312 without 3 retroactively LDP nominated candidates.   

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I guess that JCP in Okinawa is effect of American bases?

[jaichind]

LDP not the only party that will play this retroactive nomination game.  I suspect a bunch of ex-DP independents that won will also get retroactively nominated by CDP.

[Vega]

Only 5 seats left, with the CDP now at 54 seats, assuring that they will be the largest opposition party.

[jaichind]

Only 5 seats left, with the CDP now at 54 seats, assuring that they will be the largest opposition party.

Out of 5 seats

2 district seats

沖縄(Okinawa) 4th.  LDP ahead of Independent joint opposition candidate.  Would be a gain for LDP
佐賀(Saga) 2nd.  HP ahead of LDP incumbent.  Would be a gain for HP
 
3 PR seats

2 in 九州 (Kyūshū).  On current vote share it would be 1 more for SDP and 1 more for JRP
1 in 南関東 (South Kanto).  On current vote share it should be 1 more for CDP

[jaichind]

As long as 沖縄(Okinawa) 4th and  佐賀(Saga) 2nd holds I made 22 mistakes in the FPTP seats. 20 were calls for opposition that went to LDP.  2 were for LDP-KP that went opposition.  Looking at where I went wrong I am pretty proud as most of my mistakes were by very narrow margins.

北海道(Hokkaido) 5th (incorrectly called for CDP)
LDP  49.84%
CDP  47.49%

宮城(Miyagi) 2nd (incorrectly called for Ind(OPPN))
LDP           50.30%
Ind(OPPN) 49.70%

山形(Yamagata) 3rd (one of my wild calls for HP which was wrong)
LDP   52.18%
HP     41.01%
JCP     5.64%

福島(Fukushima) 4th (incorrectly called for HP)
LDP  44.66%
HP    43.86%
JCP    6.21%
SDP   5.27%

埼玉(Saitama) 12th (one of my crazy calls for HP that almost worked)
LDP   44.96%
HP     44.71%
JCP    10.33%

千葉(Chiba) 1st (incorrectly called for HP)
LDP   40.69%
HP     40.03%
JCP    11.90%
JRP     7.38%

神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th (incorrectly called for LDP rebel, CDP won instead, LDP split cost it a seat)
CDP          34.76%
LDP          28.89%
LDP rebel  26.70%
HP             9.65%

神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th (incorrectly called for KP, CDP won instead)
CDP   44.59%
KP     42.78%
JRP    12.62%

東京(Tokyo) 3rd (incorrectly called for HP, JCP surge was huge)
LDP   43.58%
HP     38.18%
JCP    18.24%

東京(Tokyo) 5rd (incorrectly called for CDP)
LDP    41.15%
CDP    40.27%
HP      18.57%

石川(Ishikawa) 3rd (incorrectly called for HP)
LDP  49.05%
HP    47.77%
JCP    3.18%

滋賀(Shiga) 1st (incorrectly called for Ind(HP) who was an ex-Governor of Shiga)
LDP        47.70%
Ind(HP)  44.74%
JCP          7.57%


滋賀(Shiga) 4st (one of my wild predictions for HP which was way off)
LDP    47.79%
HP      38.55%
JCP     13.66%

京都(Kyoto) 6th (incorrectly called for HP)
LDP    42.97%
HP     42.28%
JCP    14.75%

大阪(Osaka) 1st (incorrectly called for JRP)
LDP    37.60%
JRP    36.91%
CDP    14.51%
JCP      8.05%

大阪(Osaka) 14th (incorrectly called for JRP)
LDP    41.08%
JRP     40.23%
JCP     18.69%

大阪(Osaka) 15th (incorrectly called for JRP)
LDP     43.82%
JRP      39.75%
JCP      16.43%

奈良(Nara) 1st (incorrectly called for HP)
LDP     40.81%
HP       39.69%
JCP       9.82%
JRP       9.68%

香川(Kagawa) 1st (incorrectly called for HP)
LDP    50.68%
HP      49.32%

福岡(Fukuoka) 2nd (incorrectly called for HP)
LDP    47.93%
HP      44.34%
JCP      7.73%

大分(Ōita) 1st (incorrectly called for HP)
LDP    46.40%
HP      44.84%
JCP       8.76%

沖縄(Okinawa) 4th (incorrectly called for Ind(OPPN) tentatively, votes not all counted due to storm)
LDP            50.83%
Ind(OPPN)  46.13%

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) 10th was close even though I did not call it for CDP.  KP dodged a bullet here
KP     50.13%
CDP   49.87%

秋田(Akita) 2nd was close even though I did not call it for HP
LDP   46.30%
HP     45.26%

埼玉(Saitama) 4th was fun in a 5 way race with disgraced LDP incumbent running as an LDP rebel
LDP         37.41%
HP           25.26%
JCP          14.67%
JRP          11.77%
LDP rebel 10.89%

新潟(Niigata) 6th was close even though I did not call it for Ind(OPPN)
LDP           50.59%
Ind(OPPN) 49.41%

愛知(Aichi) 8th was close even though I did not call it for Ind(HP)
LDP       46.15%
Ind(HP) 45.37%
JCP         8.48%

大阪(Osaka) 9th was close even though I did not call it for JRP
LDP    40.73%
JRP     39.84%
SDP    19.43%

沖縄(Okinawa) 1st was a pretty fun 3 way battle
JCP   39.95%
LDP   35.82%
JRP    22.52%

[Vega]

1 Kyūshū PR seat was called for the JRP, as predicted, bringing the total outstanding seats down to 4.

[jaichind]

Not all PR votes counted yet. But my calculated vote of PR of all the votes in (over 98% overall) are
versus my predicted vote  shares

         Count      Predicted
LDP    33.26%     32.4%
KP      12.49%     13.3%
NPD     0.41%       0.3%
PJK      0.15%       0.2%
HRP     0.52%       0.5%
JRP      6.09%       5.3%
HP     17.36%     18.0%
CDP   19.89%     19.2%
SDP     1.67%       1.6%
JCP      7.92%       9.3%
NPB     0.23%       0.1%

I overestimated the fall of JRP (which is mostly the JRP-> HP flow) and underestimated the JCP->CDP flow.  Other then that I was very close. I pretty much got LDP-KP vote share on the nail.  

This number will move a bit so I will post a later version.

[jaichind]

I guess that JCP in Okinawa is effect of American bases?

Correct.  In Okinawa there are 3 blocs.  Left anti base bloc (JCP DP SDP OMSP and various local Leftist outfits), Right anti base bloc (JRP, KP and I guess HP), and pro base bloc (LDP). 

[jaichind]

1 Kyūshū PR seat was called for the JRP, as predicted, bringing the total outstanding seats down to 4.

The one PR leftover in 南関東 (South Kanto) actually got called for JRP and not CDP. 

JRP did pretty well on the PR section tonight despite their meltdown in the district section in Osaka.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a site with results in English?* Of course they always end up on the internet eventually and I can wait if need be.

_{*I mean any in a Latin alphabet would do...}