Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

Is there a site with results in English?* Of course they always end up on the internet eventually and I can wait if need be.

_{*I mean any in a Latin alphabet would do...}

You will have to wait.  It will take a while...

[jaichind]

1 Kyūshū PR seat was called for the JRP, as predicted, bringing the total outstanding seats down to 4.

The last  九州 (Kyūshū) seat is a battle between SDP and LDP. Right now SDP will get it but if SDP vote share falls relative to LDP, LDP will get it.

[Lachi]

HP should take the blame for this fiasco, as they were the group who split the DP up.

[jaichind]

HP should take the blame for this fiasco, as they were the group who split the DP up.

Yes.  But once HP was formed what actually took place might have been one of the more optimal situation to fight against LDP-KP.  Having a separate HP and CDP PR list allowed the DP Right and DP Left  a reason to come out to vote.  In many but not all the battleground seats they got it down to at worse LDP vs HP vs JCP or LDP vs CDP.  At least they mostly avoided LDP vs HP vs CDP, LDP vs CDP vs JCP, and the most disastrous LDP vs HP vs CDP vs JCP in competitive races.

Had most races devolved into LDP vs HP vs CDP then LDP itself would have gotten over 300 seats with this turnout pattern.

[Vega]

HP should take the blame for this fiasco, as they were the group who split the DP up.

I think it was more an issue of various DP members hitching their wagon to the Koike train and that didn't go as well as they hoped. Jaichind is correct in his observation about how the split may have been the most optimal and the best of both worlds.

As we were talking about earlier in this thread, I imagine that the HP will cease to exist within the week and most of the former DP members will shuffle into the CDP. Others might form new parties, and there is some chance that a rump HP sticks around for a little while.

[Lachi]

LDP lost the battleground of Aichi 7 to the ex-DP Independent incumbent by 0.4%

[jaichind]

The old rule about 東海 (Tokai) PR vote share still holds true.  I observed a few election cycles ago that the national LDP-KP PR vote share is always 1% above the 東海 (Tokai) PR vote share for LDP-KP.  In other words 東海 (Tokai)  is LDP-KP -1.   This time, for now, the national LDP-KP vote share is 45.75% while in 東海 (Tokai)  the LDP-KP vote share is 44.77%.  The pattern held perfectly.

[jaichind]

LDP lost the battleground of Aichi 7 to the ex-DP Independent incumbent by 0.4%

Yes.  But this one is especially funny.  The ex-DP independent is 山尾志桜里 (Yamao Shiori) who was given a top position in DP recently which led to media scrutiny and as a result it came out she was having an affair.  She resigned from DP and to some extent was left for dead in the next election.  But something funny happen along the way to her demise.  She ran as an independent in her district and somehow every opposition party (HP, CDP, JCP) all did not nominate a candidate in her district and she became the de facto all united opposition candidate against the LDP.   And despite her scandal the consolidate of all anti-LDP votes in her district pulled her to victory.
 

[Leftbehind]

HP should take the blame for this fiasco, as they were the group who split the DP up.

Yes.  But once HP was formed what actually took place might have been one of the more optimal situation to fight against LDP-KP.  Having a separate HP and CDP PR list allowed the DP Right and DP Left  a reason to come out to vote.  In many but not all the battleground seats they got it down to at worse LDP vs HP vs JCP or LDP vs CDP.  At least they mostly avoided LDP vs HP vs CDP, LDP vs CDP vs JCP, and the most disastrous LDP vs HP vs CDP vs JCP in competitive races.

Had most races devolved into LDP vs HP vs CDP then LDP itself would have gotten over 300 seats with this turnout pattern.

If it's so optimal why is their talk of "DP Right" (may as well just be called the Right, given the party they've merged into) slithering back to the CDP, and what will become of the CDP's electoral alliances in such a scenario.

[Vega]

LDP lost the battleground of Aichi 7 to the ex-DP Independent incumbent by 0.4%

Speaking of Aichi, what was going on in Aichi 12? Kazuhiko Shigetoku was an ex-JRP member, if I recall correctly. 

[Vega]

HP should take the blame for this fiasco, as they were the group who split the DP up.

Yes.  But once HP was formed what actually took place might have been one of the more optimal situation to fight against LDP-KP.  Having a separate HP and CDP PR list allowed the DP Right and DP Left  a reason to come out to vote.  In many but not all the battleground seats they got it down to at worse LDP vs HP vs JCP or LDP vs CDP.  At least they mostly avoided LDP vs HP vs CDP, LDP vs CDP vs JCP, and the most disastrous LDP vs HP vs CDP vs JCP in competitive races.

Had most races devolved into LDP vs HP vs CDP then LDP itself would have gotten over 300 seats with this turnout pattern.

If it's so optimal why is their talk of "DP Right" (may as well just be called the Right, given the party they've merged into) slithering back to the CDP, and what will become of the CDP's electoral alliances in such a scenario.

Primarily because of the success of the CDP in this election, which will bring a lot of the others who left the DP for the HP, mostly because they thought a Koike party would do better than the DP would have, back into the fold. It is a good question should a merger like that go through what will come of the pacts and alliances with the other parties of the left, and at this point, I'm not sure. I would hope and it would make the most since for the CDP to be pretty stringent about their demands and rules for joining.

[Dereich]

Will any of the HP candidates who won defect not to CDP but instead to LDP? It's not like such a thing would be unprecedented with the LDP's existing "if you win, you're LDP" policy for independents and the fact that many of the HP/DP right were LDP rebels in the first place.

I can't imagine the DP right will be happy to humiliatingly fall into line with a bunch of people they just tried to throw under the bus by teaming up with Koike.

[Lachi]

LDP lost the battleground of Aichi 7 to the ex-DP Independent incumbent by 0.4%

Speaking of Aichi, what was going on in Aichi 12? Kazuhiko Shigetoku was an ex-JRP member, if I recall correctly.  

Kazuhiko won easily.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a site with results in English?* Of course they always end up on the internet eventually and I can wait if need be.

_{*I mean any in a Latin alphabet would do...}

I just hit my computers auto-translate on NHK - the results are accurate enough to get the picture (despite the many errors.)

Overall, I think the fault in this failure of the opposition lies in three decisions made by Koike. First, the question of weather she would run for the chamber or remain a governor. While this really was a decision between a  rock and a hard place, if she decided to go for the Diet then her party would have a lot more credibility at the start. This would have discouraged the DP rebels from forming the CDP - the easier option would have been to entirely fold into HP and see what happens. The second decision was that once the DP folded into her, she shouldn't' have conducted the purges. The purging of leftist-MPs should have come after the election, or not at all. This simply gave the left wing of the DP a bone to pick with Koike. Finally, there was the decision between the opposition to not run under the HP/CDP brand in Tokyo and instead run against each other. As Jaichind said, the opposition really had a nice alliance system going this election, it simply wasn't in place in the one prefecture it mattered most. After making my seat map, I saw there are A LOT of Tokyo and Tokyo suburb seats that could have fallen if the opposition was unified. Instead, the opposition surge inside the city only realized a few CDP MPs in the heart of Tokyo.

Beyond that, the election was really outside of the oppositions control. Once the CDP was formed, it as natural that they would pick up the DP banner and all of their soft voters. The hurricane ruined opposition turnout, but that was unpredictable. It seems as if the gods really want Abe to be the eternal PM of Japan, first a snowstorm, then a hurricane.

[jaichind]

Will any of the HP candidates who won defect not to CDP but instead to LDP? It's not like such a thing would be unprecedented with the LDP's existing "if you win, you're LDP" policy for independents and the fact that many of the HP/DP right were LDP rebels in the first place.

I can't imagine the DP right will be happy to humiliatingly fall into line with a bunch of people they just tried to throw under the bus by teaming up with Koike.

Problem is the local LDP branch will not take them.  The fact is many on the DP Right are people that would be fine being in LDP but not get accepted as the LDP candidate by the local district LDP branch.  As a result they run for DPJ/DP.

[jaichind]

This election is highly frustrating.  Abe clearly made an mistake calling this election.  But Koike's unforced error plus this hurricane together gave him a undeserved victory.  The results, especially on the PR side, show what could have been.  Now he will be PM for another 4 years at least (he will win a 3 year term as LDP President in Sept 2018.)   

[Oryxslayer]

Speaking of results here is my map of them as they currently stand: anything missing color is because of a lack of final results/change is position on the PR state. I recommend opening in a new window, the picture is reasonably large. I originally have HP as a moss/military green, but that was too similar to the LDP, so I was forced to give it the JIP light blue and give them a brown.

[Leftbehind]

Primarily because of the success of the CDP in this election, which will bring a lot of the others who left the DP for the HP, mostly because they thought a Koike party would do better than the DP would have, back into the fold. It is a good question should a merger like that go through what will come of the pacts and alliances with the other parties of the left, and at this point, I'm not sure. I would hope and it would make the most since for the CDP to be pretty stringent about their demands and rules for joining.

F**king forum just swallowed my post.

As I was saying - I understand the motivations of those who were all too happy to leave the remnants who now make up the CDP high-and-dry wanting to worm their way into the Next Big Thing, but as I understand from the above Jaichind post, the current coalitions are optimal for energising their bases and limiting opposition splits. With this in mind I don't understand why the CDP would allow them in - even if they were to pledge support for their current policies (ignoring they pledged the opposite to be allowed into Hope).

[jaichind]

Primarily because of the success of the CDP in this election, which will bring a lot of the others who left the DP for the HP, mostly because they thought a Koike party would do better than the DP would have, back into the fold. It is a good question should a merger like that go through what will come of the pacts and alliances with the other parties of the left, and at this point, I'm not sure. I would hope and it would make the most since for the CDP to be pretty stringent about their demands and rules for joining.

F**king forum just swallowed my post.

As I was saying - I understand the motivations of those who were all too happy to leave the remnants who now make up the CDP high-and-dry wanting to worm their way into the Next Big Thing, but as I understand from the above Jaichind post, the current coalitions are optimal for energising their bases and limiting opposition splits. With this in mind I don't understand why the CDP would allow them in - even if they were to pledge support for their current policies (ignoring they pledged the opposite to be allowed into Hope).

I think it was an issue of timing.  There are plenty of HP winners that, if they knew that CDP was going to be formed and become viable, would have joined CDP, and CDP would have taken them.  But at the time DP was disbanded there was not CDP and HP was willing to take them.  CDP was formed by ex-DP candidates that HP would not take.   I totally agree that there are a bloc of HP winners that would NOT have joined CDP and CDP would not take them anyway.  But this bloc of HP winners feel they owe Koike nothing and while they might not join CDP they might try to start another Centrist party.  The more HP MPs desert HP for CDP the more likely this bloc will just go form another Centrist party.

[Lord Halifax]

This election is highly frustrating.  Abe clearly made an mistake calling this election.  But Koike's unforced error plus this hurricane together gave him a undeserved victory.  The results, especially on the PR side, show what could have been.  Now he will be PM for another 4 years at least (he will win a 3 year term as LDP President in Sept 2018.)   

What error?

[jaichind]

This election is highly frustrating.  Abe clearly made an mistake calling this election.  But Koike's unforced error plus this hurricane together gave him a undeserved victory.  The results, especially on the PR side, show what could have been.  Now he will be PM for another 4 years at least (he will win a 3 year term as LDP President in Sept 2018.)   

What error?

Insistence that all DP defectors into HP had to sign a pledge to support the 2015 Security legislation which meant a flip flop for almost all these DP defectors and severed deter more defections.  It is clear that one major reason for HP losing a lot of LDP-HP marginals is the some of the CDP vote went to the JCP.  This pledge is a good part of the reason why.  She could have indicated that support of the 2015 Security legislation was the position of the party but HP was a big tent party and could accommodate many positions on this.  She took the same approach with her position to end nuclear power in Japan.  She choose to be more hard-line on this issue.   

[jaichind]

This was a pretty bad election for KP.  Their PR seat dropped to 21 and they lost one district seat which has not happen to them since 2009.

[XSandion]

Anyone know why 高知2区 (Kouchi 2) flipped? Looking at its history it has been a solid LDP seat even in 2009, so the rather easy independent victory seems out of place.

[jaichind]

Anyone know why 高知2区 (Kouchi 2) flipped? Looking at its history it has been a solid LDP seat even in 2009, so the rather easy independent victory seems out of place.

Sure.  I call that district correctly so I will give you my reasons to call it that way.  First, HP CDP and JCP all vacated the seat to allowed the united opposition independent to run so he can take on the LDP 1-on-1.  Second this independent was a two term member (for the DPJ) of the Upper House representing 高知(Kouchi) until 2016.  He did not run for re-election last year since his 高知(Kouchi) seat  merged with 徳島(Tokushima) which is a lot more pro-LDP and he knew he would lose to the LDP candidate.  So he has a track record of winning in 高知(Kouchi) giving him name recognition and an edge over the LDP incumbent.

[XSandion]

Anyone know why 高知2区 (Kouchi 2) flipped? Looking at its history it has been a solid LDP seat even in 2009, so the rather easy independent victory seems out of place.

Sure.  I call that district correctly so I will give you my reasons to call it that way.  First, HP CDP and JCP all vacated the seat to allowed the united opposition independent to run so he can take on the LDP 1-on-1.  Second this independent was a two term member (for the DPJ) of the Upper House representing 高知(Kouchi) until 2016.  He did not run for re-election last year since his 高知(Kouchi) seat  merged with 徳島(Tokushima) which is a lot more pro-LDP and he knew he would lose to the LDP candidate.  So he has a track record of winning in 高知(Kouchi) giving him name recognition and an edge over the LDP incumbent.

Thanks, that makes sense. I noticed he'd been a councillor, but didn't occur to me quite how big the boost that'd give him was.