Japan Oct 22 2017
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jaichind
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« Reply #600 on: October 22, 2017, 08:17:46 PM »

There are 4 seats I am calling that I am going out on the limb on where pretty much no one making the same call I am.  We will see if I end up being right in any of the 4.

山形(Yamagata) 3rd.  In 2014 it was

LDP          42.9
LDP rebel  42.1
DPJ            8.6
JCP            5.8

In 2016 a deal was already made between the LDP rebel and DP that the DP will back the LDP rebel the next election.  So this time the LDP rebel joined HP so it will be LDP vs HP vs JCP vs HRP.  I project that the HP candidate can retain enough of his personal vote and the pull in most of the DPJ vote for a HP victory when everyone else projects a LDP victory.



埼玉(Saitama) 12th.  In 2014 it was

LDP       38.6
FPG       30.5
DPJ       22.1
JCP         8.8

This time the FPG candidate actually joined DP before joining and running as HP.    The DPJ candidate was actually moved to 北海道(Hokkaido) by DP when the FPG candidate joined and will now run in 北海道(Hokkaido) 4th as a CDP candidate.  So the race will be LDP vs HP vs JCP.  I say that the ex-FPG now HP candidate will put in enough of the FPG and DPJ base to defeat LDP.  Everyone else says LDP wins.



滋賀(Shiga) 4th.  Back in 2014 it was

LDP       38.7
JIP        26.3
DPJ       26.2
JCP         8.8

The LDP incumbent was trapped in various scandals, resigned from LDP and persuaded by the LDP to retire and not run as an independent.    The JIP candidate actually joined ORA/JRP instead of DP when JIP broke up in 2015.  He then in 2016 ran for mayor of for Kōka city and was elected. The DPJ candidate joined DP and then HP and will run for HP.  So the race is LDP vs HP vs JCP.  I say that the scandal of the previous LDP incumbent plus nominal support of JRP for HP would pull the HP candidate through.  No one else is making this call and everyone insist the LDP candidate will win.



鹿児島(Kagoshima) 1st district. Back in 2014 it was

LDP     44.1
DPJ     31.0
JIP      19.7
JCP       5.2

The LDP incumbent has retired.  The JIP candidate joined ORA/JRP in 2015 when JIP split and will run for JRP.  The DPJ candidate joined CDP with JCP support.  So the race will be LDP vs CDP vs JRP.
 HP does not seem to be backing JRP in this district and most likely is tacitly backing CDP.  I say that the LDP incumbent not running will cut a few percentage points from the LDP vote share and that JRP will not repeat the JIP performance in 2014 with the result CDP winning.  Pretty much everyone else say that the pro-LDP lean of  鹿児島(Kagoshima) will carry LDP to victory.
 

So in the end I was 1 for 4 although one of the ones I got wrong I was close. 

山形(Yamagata) 3rd 
LDP   52.18%
HP     41.01%
JCP     5.64%

I am still confused on why I was so way off.  The JCP vote "correctly" did not increase so the HP candidate did get the 2014 DPJ vote but still lost by a mile.  I guess the old LDP rebel lost some of the LDP vote when he became officially a member of HP.   But if party loyalty mattered so much then how come in the 2016 Upper House elections 山形(Yamagata) overall voted for a Opposition backed independent over the LDP candidate 59.0 to 38.3.  It could be that the HP brand was not that strong in 山形(Yamagata) and it cost him.  Perhaps the old LDP rebel should have run as an pro-HP independent with de facto support from DCP.


埼玉(Saitama) 12th 
LDP   44.96%
HP     44.71%
JCP    10.33%
I was very close when everyone thought that HP would lose by a mile.  I guess this is sort of a moral victory.


滋賀(Shiga) 4st (one of my wild predictions for HP which was way off)
LDP    47.79%
HP      38.55%
JCP     13.66%
I guess I was way off.  Not only did the DCP vote defect to JCP, but a good part of the 2014 JIP vote sent to LDP.  I made the assumption neither would be the case and was wrong on both sides.



鹿児島(Kagoshima) 1st district
CDP       41.80%
LDP       40.78%
JRP        14.66%
So I won this bet.  And it took place just like I expected.  The LDP candidate could not pull in the same vote share as 2014 as the old LDP incumbent who must have extensive network and name recognition.    The 2014 JCP vote went to CDP and the JRP candidate could not keep the entire 2014 JIP vote with a bloc if it going to CDP to tactically vote against LDP.   Pretty much no one had this on the radar for CDP to win although some had  indicated that it might be close.  I actually made the call that CDP would win.
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Lachi
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« Reply #601 on: October 23, 2017, 01:07:19 AM »

LDP win another seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #602 on: October 23, 2017, 04:23:59 AM »


Correct.  Every one of my assumptions how this would end in the remaining few seats worked out exactly except for the last PR seat for 南関東 (South Kanto) went JRP instead of CDP.  This means LDP 1 HP 1 JRP 2 SDP 1.


Out of 5 seats

2 district seats

沖縄(Okinawa) 4th.  LDP ahead of Independent joint opposition candidate.  Would be a gain for LDP
佐賀(Saga) 2nd.  HP ahead of LDP incumbent.  Would be a gain for HP
 
3 PR seats

2 in 九州 (Kyūshū).  On current vote share it would be 1 more for SDP and 1 more for JRP
1 in 南関東 (South Kanto).  On current vote share it should be 1 more for CDP


So in the end LDP-KP wins 310 (2/3 exactly) plus 3 more it won by retroactively nominating 3 pro-LDP independent. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #603 on: October 23, 2017, 04:28:07 AM »

PR votes almost 100% done except for a handful.  So it will end up being the below along with my prediction

         Count      Predicted
LDP    33.27%     32.4%
KP      12.52%     13.3%
NPD     0.41%       0.3%
PJK      0.15%       0.2%
HRP     0.52%       0.5%
JRP      6.08%       5.3%
HP     17.35%     18.0%
CDP   19.88%     19.2%
SDP     1.69%       1.6%
JCP      7.90%       9.3%
NPB     0.22%       0.1%

I overestimated the JRP->HP flow, I also underestimated the JCP->CDP flow.  And overestimated the number of KP voters disguised as LDP votes in polls.   

My predictions at the PR section level were pretty good which I will post when I have time.
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jaichind
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« Reply #604 on: October 23, 2017, 04:33:49 AM »

The 北海道(Hokkaido) 8th Ind(OPPN) winner was retroactively nominated by CDP.  Just like the 3 retroactively nominated LDP winners the way I will present my numbers are based on pre-election designations so we can do an apples-to-apples comparison with my predictions.     
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jaichind
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« Reply #605 on: October 23, 2017, 06:25:49 AM »

If we use the tentative PR vote share we can continue the chart I have been constructing on PR vote shares summery since 2000.

In this election we can consider CDP SDP Center-Left and HP, JRP, NPD, PJK, and HRP Third Pole. If so we get

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.79              24.51             21.57              7.90

Where 2017 looks a lot like 2013 but with LDP-KP somewhat weaker and Third Pole somewhat stronger.  You can see that in retrospect the CDP surge is merely reversing to the mean.


Of course we can view HP not as a LDP splinter but as a DP Center-Right splinter since the vast majority of HP candidates are from DP.  In such a situation we can consider HP as a part of the Center-Left in which case we get this chart.


               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.79                7.16             38.92              7.90

In which case we can see 2017 as a continuation of 2012-2016 trend of the decline of Third Pole and recovery of the Center-Left.  HP on paper is Third Pole but most HP voters seems to have tactically voted CDP and vice versa since just weeks ago they were all DP voters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #606 on: October 23, 2017, 06:37:12 AM »

What if, say, the CDP got a seat total out of the 11 PR blocks that was higher then the amount of candidates they actually put up for election? Let's say they got 80 seats in total. Would the 2 seats that they don't have candidates for just not be filled, or would another party win them?

This seems to have taken place in the 東海 (Tokai) PR section.  Based on the votes it should have been

LDP   7
HP    5
CDP  5
KP    2
JCP   1
JRP   1

But because CDP failed to nominate enough candidates on the PR slate the LDP won an extra seat from CDP on this technicality so it ends up being

LDP   8
HP    5
CDP  4
KP    2
JCP   1
JRP    1

So if you go by what the voters intended and if you filter out this retroactive nomination stuff then LDP-KP really won 309 seats which is below 2/3 majority !!
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jaichind
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« Reply #607 on: October 23, 2017, 07:45:43 AM »

Kyodo News exit poll

Party support

LDP     36
KP        5
JRP       4
HP      12
CDP    14
JCP      5
Ind     19

Out of the 19% that were independent the PR vote was

LDP     21
KP        6
JRP       9
HP      18
CDP     31
SDP      2
JCP     10

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jaichind
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« Reply #608 on: October 23, 2017, 09:31:35 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2017, 09:30:36 PM by jaichind »

Final result table

             District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          215         65      280             33.28%
KP               8         21        29             12.51%
NPD             0           0         0               0.41%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              3           8       11                6.07%
HP             18         32        50              17.36%
CDP           17         38        55              19.88%
SDP             1           1         2                1.69%
JCP              1         11       12                7.90%
Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        8           0         8     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  11           0       11      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Note that in reality LDP will get 66 PR seats and CDP 37 PR seats since CDP failed to nominate enough candidates to get their full number of seats they deserve.  But I am keeping my chart based on what the voter intended.  

Also 3 pro-LDP independents winners have since been retroactively nominated by LDP and 1 Ind(OPPN) winner have been retroactively nominated by CDP.  But I am keeping the chart to what the picture looked like on election day.

So if you go with that the voter intended and keep to what the candidate list looked like on election day, in theory LDP-KP was kept to 309, 1 seat below 2/3 majority.  


My prediction was

Final prediction based on now clear patterns of lower turnout due to the storm.  LDP-KP at 295.


              District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          195         67      262             32.4%
KP               9         24        33             13.3%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              6           5       11                5.3%
HP             30         31        61              18.0%
CDP           17         33        50              19.2%
SDP             1           0         1                1.6%
JCP              1         16       17                9.3%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        9           0         9     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  13           0       13      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

My PR section was very close to the mark.  I was off somewhat in the JCP one.  Overall I got the 3 bloc size correctly.  

                                                            Result               My prediction
LDP+ (LDP,KP)                                      45.79%                 45.68%
Third Pole (HP JRP PJK NPD HRP)           24.51%                  24.23%
Left (CDP SDP JCP)                               29.47%                  30.00%

My PR seat projection were off due to somewhat different distribution of votes between the various parties within blocs which lead to various threshold effects.  

District seat wise I made 22 mistakes which seems above average when compared to other professional projections out there.  The number of mistakes made in each one of the public projections

hajimetesenkyo.com           19
Yomiuri                              19
Jiji                                     20
松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)       22
Nikkei                                23
Mainichi                             26
Ashai                                 30
和子夫人(Ms Kazuko)            30
Chunichi                             33
小林吉弥(Kobayashi Yoshiya) 53

Puts me in the top tier of the 19-23 mistake range.  
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #609 on: October 23, 2017, 02:35:51 PM »

What is the difference between being retroactively nominated by a party and simply joining it?

With parallel voting it doesn't seem to matter for district MPs.
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jaichind
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« Reply #610 on: October 23, 2017, 03:49:22 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2018, 06:24:53 AM by jaichind »

Overall my PR vote share projections by each PR district which I had to do to derive a bottoms-up prediction of PR seats were pretty good as well.  Of course I heavily used trends from various regional polls at the PR and prefecture level.  PR vote share and seat count by PR region plus my prediction are below
      
8 seats in all                                              My Predicted
北海道 (Hokkaido)   Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                          28.81%        3         27.60%        3  
KP                            11.03%        1         13.14%        1
NPD                           8.37%                    7.52%          
HRP                           0.52%                    0.40%
JRP                            2.76%                    1.86%
HP                           12.25%        1         12.41%         1
CDP                         26.38%        3         27.14%         2
SDP                           1.38%                    0.93%
JCP                            8.51%                    8.98%         1

A very small difference in vote share pushed JCP out of a seat from CDP relative to my projection.


13 seats in all                                             My Predicted
東北(Tohoku)          Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                          34.59%       5          31.65%        5
KP                            11.03%       1          12.04%        1
PJK                            1.07%                     0.52%
HRP                           0.54%                     0.49%
JRP                            3.04%                     2.14%
HP                           21.72%       3          22.22%        3
CDP                         18.11%       3          20.40%        3
SDP                           2.51%                     1.78%
JCP                            7.39%       1            8.74%        1


19 seats in all                                             My Predicted
北関東 (North Kanto) Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                          33.15%        7         32.65%        7
KP                            13.10%        2        14.72%         3
HRP                           0.49%                    0.41%
JRP                            3.39%                   3.82%
HP                           19.27%        4         19.30%        4
CDP                         21.99%        5         17.59%        3
SDP                           1.10%                     1.22%
JCP                            7.51%        1         10.29%        2

CDP surge taking vote share from JCP and weaker KP performance led to CDP getting 2 extra seats from KP and JCP relative to my projection.


22 seats overall                                           My Predicted
南関東 (South Kanto) Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                           34.28%        8            32.58%     8
KP                             11.46%        2            12.63%     3
HRP                            0.38%                        0.36%
JRP                             3.92%        1              3.52%
HP                            17.23%        4             17.62%    4
CDP                          23.46%        5             21.76%    5
SDP                            1.27%                        1.35%
JCP                             8.01%       2             10.19%     2

Worse KP performance led to JRP winning a seat relative to my projections.


17 seats overall                                           My Predicted
東京 (Tokyo)              Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                             30.47%       6          30.57%       6
KP                               10.81%       2          11.21%       2
PJK                               0.68%                     0.83%
HRP                              0.27%                     0.26%
JRP                               3.32%                     3.13%
HP                              17.44%        3          17.60%       3
CDP                            23.58%        4          22.38%       4
SDP                              0.95%                     1.25%
JCP                             10.37%        2          11.88%       2
NPB                              2.10%                     0.89%

Other than being slightly off between CDP and JCP I pretty much got this one nearly perfectly


11 seats overall
北陸信越                                                      My Predicted
(Hokurikushinetsu)    Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                             37.09%      5           37.04%       5
KP                                8.88%       1            9.68%       1
HRP                              0.70%                    0.54%
JRP                               4.60%                    2.85%
HP                              19.23%      2           19.88%       2
CDP                            19.52%      2           20.60%       2
SDP                              2.52%                     1.94%
JCP                               7.47%      1             7.46%       1


21 seats overall                                           My Predicted
東海 (Tokai)              Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                            33.21%      7           32.82%       8
KP                              11.59%      2           11.95%       2
HRP                             0.57%                     0.54%
JRP                              4.42%      1             3.31%
HP                             21.45%      5            22.70%       5
CDP                           21.05%      5            19.25%       4
SDP                             1.00%                     1.16%
JCP                              6.69%      1             8.26%       2

In theory LDP won 8 seats and CDP 4 but that is only because CDP did not nominate enough candidates so LDP ended up with one more and CDP did not get a seat it deserved.   JRP did better than I expected and took a seat from LDP relative to my prediction.  Likewise JCP under-performed my prediction and lost a seat to CDP.  


28 seats overall                                           My Predicted
近畿 (Kinki)               Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                             30.62%       9           29.80%      9
KP                               13.79%       4           14.71%      4
HRP                              0.44%                      0.45%
JRP                             18.29%        5          16.69%      5
HP                              10.82%        3            9.73%      2
CDP                            15.81%        5          17.52%      5
SDP                              0.93%                      0.85%
JCP                               9.31%       2           10.25%      3

I overestimated the Left surge in urban Kinki and underestimated JRP and HP.  As a result HP won 1 more seat and JCP 1 less seat than my projections.  


11 seats overall                                           My Predicted
中国(Chugoku)          Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                            39.18%       5          38.10%       5
KP                              14.94%       2          15.56%       2
HRP                             0.65%                     0.53%
JRP                              4.74%                     4.86%
HP                             16.13%       2           19.10%       2
CDP                           16.72%       2           13.68%       1
SDP                             1.39%                     1.16%
JCP                              6.25%                     7.01%       1

I overestimated HP here and underestimated CDP.  The result is CDP wins an extra seat from JCP.


6 seats overall                                            My Predicted
四国 (Shikoku)         Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                           35.92%       3          35.88%        3
KP                             14.69%       1          15.13%        1
HRP                            0.77%                     0.62%
JRP                             4.87%                     4.00%
HP                            20.10%       1           20.68%        1
CDP                          14.45%       1           13.73%        1
SDP                            1.85%                     1.69%
JCP                             7.37%                     8.26%


20 seats overall                                         My Predicted
九州 (Kyūshū)        Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                         33.81%       7          33.66%        8
KP                           15.82%       3          15.62%        4
HRP                          0.78%                     0.57%
JRP                           4.30%       1            3.72%
HP                          18.11%       4           19.52%       4
CDP                        16.34%       3           15.43%       3
SDP                          4.30%       1            3.76%
JCP                           6.54%       1            7.72%        1

SDP and JRP both did a bit better than expected and capture a seat from LDP and KP each relative to my projection.


Overall
176 seats overall                                       My Predicted
Overall                 Vote share   Seats    Vote Share   Seats
LDP                         33.28%     65          32.43%      67
KP                           12.51%     21          13.25%      24
NPD                          0.41%                    0.32%
PJK                           0.15%                    0.15%
HRP                          0.52%                    0.46%
JRP                           6.07%      8            5.32%        5
HP                          17.36%     32          17.98%      31
CDP                        19.88%     38          19.15%      33
SDP                          1.69%      1            1.55%
JCP                           7.90%    11            9.30%       16
NPB                          0.22%                    0.09%

Again LDP really won 66 and CDP won 37 due to CDP lost a seat to LDP in 東海 (Tokai) due to CDP not nominating enough candidates on the PR list.    
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jaichind
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« Reply #611 on: October 23, 2017, 04:02:13 PM »

What is the difference between being retroactively nominated by a party and simply joining it?

With parallel voting it doesn't seem to matter for district MPs.

No difference other than psychological  basis.  It stems from a Chinese concept  "成者为王, 败者为寇" or "The winner of war is put in the history books as the king; The loser is put into history books as the bandit"   So it is like 1984.  The winner "was always the only real LDP candidate, that other loser was never even close to being the official candidate"  You are equal to everyone else in the caucus. 
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Lachi
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« Reply #612 on: October 23, 2017, 04:04:58 PM »

Have we seen any defections yet?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #613 on: October 23, 2017, 04:29:28 PM »

I noticed Wikipedia hasn't given vote totals.  I noticed PR given above, but what is the vote total in the constituency votes?
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Sestak
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« Reply #614 on: October 23, 2017, 05:13:20 PM »

I noticed Wikipedia hasn't given vote totals.  I noticed PR given above, but what is the vote total in the constituency votes?
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jaichind
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« Reply #615 on: October 23, 2017, 06:40:24 PM »


No.  It seems there are several efforts at a) DCP-HP alliance b) CDP-HP merger c) recreate DP.  And there is the issue of will Koike resign as leader of HP.  I guess various ex-DP independents MPs and HP MPs will take a wait and see what takes place.  Same for the DP Upper House MPs it seems.
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jaichind
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« Reply #616 on: October 23, 2017, 06:41:51 PM »

I noticed Wikipedia hasn't given vote totals.  I noticed PR given above, but what is the vote total in the constituency votes?

The Japan election commission did not come out with official results yet. I did the computation of PR votes on my own.  If I have time I will compete the district numbers although I suspect the official numbers will come out tomorrow.  I suspect LDP-KP district vote share will be around 48% (including the various LDP rebels.)
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Vega
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« Reply #617 on: October 23, 2017, 06:49:05 PM »

I took the liberty of starting a new (the old one was getting rather lengthy and it's nice to have a new discussion following a new election) General Discussion thread for Japan.

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jaichind
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« Reply #618 on: October 23, 2017, 07:17:00 PM »


Sounds good.  Although election results data I still prefer to update in this thread.  I agree political developments should be in a new thread.
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Vega
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« Reply #619 on: October 23, 2017, 10:42:03 PM »


Yep, this is still a great place for discussing the results, maps, and other solid data breakdowns.
 
Also, what is the SDP's plan at this point? It seems they have too much pride and tradition to merge into another party, but they're really at the bottom of the barrel now.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #620 on: October 24, 2017, 02:51:34 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2017, 03:01:56 AM by Zioneer »

Out of curiosity, where there any Japanese Christians elected? In particular, any Japanese Mormons? I know that before there was an election, there was Keiko Itokazu, a Japanese Mormon serving as an independent. And obviously, while there's only a small population of Japanese Christians in general, they have outsized influence, if I recall correctly.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #621 on: October 24, 2017, 07:13:11 AM »

Out of curiosity, where there any Japanese Christians elected? In particular, any Japanese Mormons? I know that before there was an election, there was Keiko Itokazu, a Japanese Mormon serving as an independent. And obviously, while there's only a small population of Japanese Christians in general, they have outsized influence, if I recall correctly.

Well, Aso Taro, who is a prominent rival to Abe Shinzo within the LDP and former and possible future PM, is a Catholic.

Itokazu Keiko is in the House of Councillors so was not up for reelection this time and is still in the legislature.
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Vega
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« Reply #622 on: October 24, 2017, 08:40:34 AM »

Out of curiosity, where there any Japanese Christians elected? In particular, any Japanese Mormons? I know that before there was an election, there was Keiko Itokazu, a Japanese Mormon serving as an independent. And obviously, while there's only a small population of Japanese Christians in general, they have outsized influence, if I recall correctly.

Well, Aso Taro, who is a prominent rival to Abe Shinzo within the LDP and former and possible future PM, is a Catholic.

Itokazu Keiko is in the House of Councillors so was not up for reelection this time and is still in the legislature.

Not to disagree with the spirit of your post, but I can't see this happening, given that Aso is almost 80.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #623 on: October 24, 2017, 12:26:48 PM »



Probably a few errors but, eh, whatever.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #624 on: October 24, 2017, 12:42:42 PM »

Out of curiosity, where there any Japanese Christians elected? In particular, any Japanese Mormons? I know that before there was an election, there was Keiko Itokazu, a Japanese Mormon serving as an independent. And obviously, while there's only a small population of Japanese Christians in general, they have outsized influence, if I recall correctly.

Well, Aso Taro, who is a prominent rival to Abe Shinzo within the LDP and former and possible future PM, is a Catholic.

Itokazu Keiko is in the House of Councillors so was not up for reelection this time and is still in the legislature.

Not to disagree with the spirit of your post, but I can't see this happening, given that Aso is almost 80.

It was chattered about seriously earlier this year when Abe was in free-fall. Now that Abe has won reelection, it's much less likely but hardly impossible, especially if things go sour for Abe quickly. The Japanese are not likely to turn down a potential PM for being middle-aged, after all Wink
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