Japan Oct 22 2017

[Famous Mortimer]

TOKYO, Sept. 19 Kyodo
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering laying out his plan next week for a general election, a government source said Tuesday.
Abe is looking to hold a press conference on Monday to announce that he will dissolve the House of Representatives on Sept. 28, when the lower house will convene for an extraordinary session.
In line with the schedule, official campaigning would start on Oct. 10 for the election on Oct. 22, ruling party sources said.

I will believe it when I see it. Japanese PMs have pulled these fake out press conferences before.

[Famous Mortimer]

I assumed the faction that broke away from the Democrats to join Koike did so because their own party was too right wing. But now that PJK is joining, that doesn't make sense.

Unless maybe they are united by something else, anti-Americanism maybe? What dos Koike think about America? Do you think she will campaign for a withdrawal of troops?

[Famous Mortimer]

Why do all these people refuse to work the the JCP? It seems like one of the most moderate Communist parties in the world.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yep.  But now is the time to see who in the DP Left are true believes.  At this stage it is too late for the DP Left to form their own party.  So since Maehara has all the cash and if Rengo supports Maehara move then these DP Left MPs will be running alone with at best JCP support in their district in a 3 way race between LDP HP and themselves.  Even if they have connections locally, in an election billed as an Abe vs Koike battle royal they are most likely to lose.  And since they are not part of a party with a PR slate their loss means the end of their political career.  I suspect a lot of these DP Left MPs will either retire or grovel to HP's terms. Only some will go it alone and many of those will be defeated.  

Couldn't they join the SDP?

No better. SDP wins around 2% of the PR vote which only qualifies them for a PR seat in 九州(Kyūshū) only because they tend to get around 5% there.   To get seats a party has to get at least 5% some of the larger PR blocs or around 8% in the smaller PR blocs.  Unless SDP PR vote rises dramatically this is of little use.  Only way is the entire LDP Left MPs join en bloc and bring all their vote with them to vote SDP on the PR slate.  There are too many ifs and coordination for this to happen.  Besides the Socialist SDP has baggage as well will repel some of the DP Left voters.  Most likely it will be everyone for themselves.   And if 5 of them could get elected then they can bloc up and forma a Center-Left party and start from there.

The SDP is pretty far left, too, isn't it (at least as far as Japanese politics are concerned, which are pretty right-wing overall - other than extreme dovishness, they sound mainstream for the West)? To the left of the JCP? At least that was my understanding of the current state of the party. And I doubt they'd want dozens of former DP'ers coming in and taking over their party.

Not as far left but more pro-North Korea.

[Famous Mortimer]

Even the media can't keep up with the Hashists' name changes.

[Famous Mortimer]

Those don't seem like high enough numbers to mean anything. Clearly most Japanese people do not follow politicians are twitter. Additionally, those could just be bots.

[Famous Mortimer]

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

No LP?

[Famous Mortimer]

Looks like Nariaki Nakayama representing the PJK there. So the PJK merger with Party of Hope is totally off?

[Famous Mortimer]

When is the final filing deadline?

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There a new Space Battleship Yamato out?

[Famous Mortimer]

So I see parties on taking a stance on the "Consumption tax raise". Is this the same consumption tax raise they were discussing 3 elections ago? Have they been putting it off that long? Or is this a new raise and they do it every couple of years?

[Famous Mortimer]

Why are some former DPers running as HP and others running as pro-HP independents? What's the difference, what's the advantage?

Same question with the CDP, why are some running CDP and others as pro-CDP independents?

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: If HP wins, can Yuriko Koike become PM or does she have to resign as governor/run for a seat in parliament in a special election? If she didn't, who would become PM?

[Famous Mortimer]

Yukiko Kada x Yuriko Koike yuri dojinshi pls