Japan Oct 22 2017

[Lachi]

That 15% would give JCP 27 seats

It would be a record in terms of raw support, but it would not be a record in terms of proportion of house seats.

[Lachi]

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

[Lachi]

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

JIP is gone. Hashomoto created JRP in 2012.  Then JRP merged with YP splinter UP in 2014 for form JIP with PFG splitting out from JRP to oppose to this merger.   Then JIP split in late 2015 where Hashimoto took ORA out of JIP to oppose the trend inside JIP to ally with DPJ.  JIP then merged with DPJ in 2016 to form DP.  ORA then renamed itself back to JRP.  I know it is confusing since JRP, ORA and JIP all has the word 維新 (Ishin) in it. 

Is there any ideological difference between DP and JRP?

JRP is very right-wing, while the Dems are a centre, to centre-left big tent party.

[Lachi]

I don't get why Koike's party would eat into DP's vote.

[Lachi]

DP is being screwed from all sides, it seems.

[Lachi]

Well, if DP does split, that was an incredibly short period of existence.

[Lachi]

I would go further than just calling it unwise, I'd call it f**king moronic.

[Lachi]

I would think that Renhō would either be an Independent, or join HP, her being part of Maehara's faction after all.

[Lachi]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/japan-s-koike-says-she-may-tax-cash-reserves-of-large-companies

Japan Opposition Unveils 'Yurinomics' Platform to Challenge Abe

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s opposition party said it may impose taxes on large companies’ cash reserves and permanently rid Japan of nuclear power as it unveiled a slew of campaign promises on Friday ahead of an Oct. 22 election.

In a manifesto dubbed “Yurinomics” -- a counter to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” platform highlighted by large injections of liquidity -- Koike vowed to freeze a consumption tax increase, end discrimination against homosexuals and protect abandoned pets. Her Party of Hope plans to maintain Abe’s unprecedented monetary easing for the time being, while working with the Bank of Japan to seek a smooth exit strategy.

Would that include gay marriage?

No.  Not even JCP will support that.  The most extreme Left position would be JCP's position of backing civil unions. The main battle-lines on marriage in Japan right now are "should the law that enforces that a married couple must use the same last name be abolished to allow the wife to use her maiden last name."    Most of the LDP caucus is against and most of DP caucus are for.   

You know a country is backwards in marriage rights when a woman isn't even allowed to use her madien name.

[Lachi]

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

No LP?

Both of the LP diet members left and are running as independents.

[Lachi]

I hope it's right (not that I am putting any stock in it whatsoever...)

[Lachi]

Latest JX poll for Tokyo (confirming the CDP surge that Mainichi Sunday magazine reported)

LDP   29 (+1)
KP       6 (+1)
HP     18 (-11)
CDP   18(new)
JCP     7(-3)

CDP surge coming at the expense of both HP and JCP.

Holy sh**t, it's happening.

[Lachi]

Are we going to expect Nippon Ishin no Kai to sweep Osaka?

I don't think that they will completely sweep, but they'll get damn close to it.

[Lachi]

I fell as if pollster make NO attempt to get a response out of most people that isn't 'no party'. I think pollsters should push a bit harder for actual responses.

[Lachi]

So... there will essentially be no point in all of the defections and splits that have happened over the last few weeks?

I never knew there could be such a hopeless, and divided opposition anywhere...

[Lachi]

Sankei's poll also showed that 40.5% would like to see a change in government, as opposed to 50.5% who would like to see the LDP stay in.

Also, wtf, how the hell is the CDP charging up so high, so quickly? Not even I would have said that would ever happened, and I would be a huge partisan hack when it comes to the CDP.

[Lachi]

Also, Sankei is about the most far-right newspaper you will find in Japan, so that makes the results even more shocking.

[Lachi]

NHK poll: Party Support, 10/16



LDP: 32.8 (+1.6)
HP: 5.4 (+.6)
KP: 4.3 (+.5)
JCP: 3.4 (+.7)
CDP: 6.6 (+2.2)
JRP: 1.7 (+.4)
SDP: 0.6 (+.1)
Kokoro: 0.1 (+.1)
No Party: 34.0 (-5.1)
DP: 1.0 (-.6)
LP: 0.2 (+.2)

[Lachi]

NHK Poll: Constitutional Amendment



Agree: 29
Disagree: 22
Don't care (Neither): 40

[Lachi]

Here is the video with more polling results (In Japanese)
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20171016/k10011179591000.html?utm_int=all_side_ranking-social_001

[Lachi]

Turnout details from NHK poll

Certain to vote + voted early

Total electorate:  61%
Non-Aligned: 48%
Pro-Ruling parties: 70%
Pro-Opposition parties: 77%

That's... rather high.

[Lachi]

Isn't Okinawa usually quite anti-LDP though?

[Lachi]

One again Abe timed the election as to eliminate his most dangerous rival before she becomes a threat.

Who was the rival in 2014?

I mean, theoretically Kaieda was. But practically, he had no real rivalry in 2014.

[Lachi]

So, CDP will be by far the largest opposition party in your view, if not on election night itself, within a week?

[Lachi]

Who usually does better with early voting?