Japan Oct 22 2017

[Lord Halifax]

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

JIP is gone. Hashomoto created JRP in 2012.  Then JRP merged with YP splinter UP in 2014 for form JIP with PFG splitting out from JRP to oppose to this merger.   Then JIP split in late 2015 where Hashimoto took ORA out of JIP to oppose the trend inside JIP to ally with DPJ.  JIP then merged with DPJ in 2016 to form DP.  ORA then renamed itself back to JRP.  I know it is confusing since JRP, ORA and JIP all has the word 維新 (Ishin) in it.  

Is there any ideological difference between DP and JRP?

[Lord Halifax]

Could you provide us with a list of the parties running?

[Lord Halifax]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Opposition-Democrats-seek-merger-with-Tokyo-gov-s-party

Opposition Democrats seek merger with Tokyo gov's party.  he leader of the Democratic Party met with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike Tuesday night to discuss a possible merger with her new national party, aiming to assemble a political force that can take on the dominant ruling party.

Wow.

There are also rumors that Ozawa will work to merge his LP either with DP or HP.   Ozawa and Koike go way back and Ozawa will be a pro-Koike force no matter what party he is in.

Would KP still remain loyal to LDP in that situation?

[Lord Halifax]

JRP, which is fairly anti-DP since the JIP split of 2015 indicated that it will not cooperate with HP if DP joins HP wholesale. 

Probably a good thing

[Lord Halifax]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/28/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-dissolves-lower-house-opposition-bands-together/#.Wc0AH3MpDqB

Looks like the DP MPs will be getting the Manuel Valls treatment. The bit about constitutional revision is rather remarkable. Is there a chance that Abe might lose seats but get the necessary majority to pass revision through the House? There's still the upper house to worry about, of course.

Yep.  But now is the time to see who in the DP Left are true believes.  At this stage it is too late for the DP Left to form their own party.  So since Maehara has all the cash and if Rengo supports Maehara move then these DP Left MPs will be running alone with at best JCP support in their district in a 3 way race between LDP HP and themselves.  Even if they have connections locally, in an election billed as an Abe vs Koike battle royal they are most likely to lose.  And since they are not part of a party with a PR slate their loss means the end of their political career.  I suspect a lot of these DP Left MPs will either retire or grovel to HP's terms. Only some will go it alone and many of those will be defeated. 

Couldn't they join the SDP?

[Lord Halifax]

It seems Koike has arranged for a summit this Sat with the governor of Osaka 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) who is the de jure leader of JRP (real leader is really Hashimoto but he is in the background) and the governor of 愛知(Aichi) 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki) who also leads a Aichi regional party ATJ but also backed by Right Libertarian DPJ Aichi splinter TCJ (TCJ is allied with JRP.)

All three were elected members of the LDP but all three broke with the LDP to form anti-LDP regional splinters.  It seems that even though JRP has turned down an alliance with HP after DP's decision to merge with HP Koike is trying to get an anti-LDP united from with JRP-TCJ.  If this pulls this off then it could severely damage LDP in Osaka (and Kinki overall) and even more so in Aichi where DP is strong and a HP-DP-TCJ bloc can do real damage to LDP.

What are the English names of these parties?

[Lord Halifax]

Why do HP have strength in Kanagawa?

Is CDP or DCP correct? You used both in your previous post.

[Lord Halifax]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/japan-s-koike-says-she-may-tax-cash-reserves-of-large-companies

Japan Opposition Unveils 'Yurinomics' Platform to Challenge Abe

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s opposition party said it may impose taxes on large companies’ cash reserves and permanently rid Japan of nuclear power as it unveiled a slew of campaign promises on Friday ahead of an Oct. 22 election.

In a manifesto dubbed “Yurinomics” -- a counter to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” platform highlighted by large injections of liquidity -- Koike vowed to freeze a consumption tax increase, end discrimination against homosexuals and protect abandoned pets. Her Party of Hope plans to maintain Abe’s unprecedented monetary easing for the time being, while working with the Bank of Japan to seek a smooth exit strategy.

Would that include gay marriage?

[Lord Halifax]

This election is highly frustrating.  Abe clearly made an mistake calling this election.  But Koike's unforced error plus this hurricane together gave him a undeserved victory.  The results, especially on the PR side, show what could have been.  Now he will be PM for another 4 years at least (he will win a 3 year term as LDP President in Sept 2018.)   

What error?

[Lord Halifax]

What is the difference between being retroactively nominated by a party and simply joining it?

With parallel voting it doesn't seem to matter for district MPs.