Japan Oct 22 2017

[Tintrlvr]

Yep.  But now is the time to see who in the DP Left are true believes.  At this stage it is too late for the DP Left to form their own party.  So since Maehara has all the cash and if Rengo supports Maehara move then these DP Left MPs will be running alone with at best JCP support in their district in a 3 way race between LDP HP and themselves.  Even if they have connections locally, in an election billed as an Abe vs Koike battle royal they are most likely to lose.  And since they are not part of a party with a PR slate their loss means the end of their political career.  I suspect a lot of these DP Left MPs will either retire or grovel to HP's terms. Only some will go it alone and many of those will be defeated.  

Couldn't they join the SDP?

No better. SDP wins around 2% of the PR vote which only qualifies them for a PR seat in 九州(Kyūshū) only because they tend to get around 5% there.   To get seats a party has to get at least 5% some of the larger PR blocs or around 8% in the smaller PR blocs.  Unless SDP PR vote rises dramatically this is of little use.  Only way is the entire LDP Left MPs join en bloc and bring all their vote with them to vote SDP on the PR slate.  There are too many ifs and coordination for this to happen.  Besides the Socialist SDP has baggage as well will repel some of the DP Left voters.  Most likely it will be everyone for themselves.   And if 5 of them could get elected then they can bloc up and forma a Center-Left party and start from there.

The SDP is pretty far left, too, isn't it (at least as far as Japanese politics are concerned, which are pretty right-wing overall - other than extreme dovishness, they sound mainstream for the West)? To the left of the JCP? At least that was my understanding of the current state of the party. And I doubt they'd want dozens of former DP'ers coming in and taking over their party.

[Tintrlvr]

CDP?! Did I miss something?!

Center-left remnants of DP that aren't merging into HP. The "Constitutional Democratic Party" (i.e., opposed to changes to the constitution).

[Tintrlvr]

Amazing that the DPJ are engaging in yet *another* harebrained scheme to oust the LDP. This'll work for sure though. Absolutely.

This is more of a factional war within the LDP that just happens to be taking place outside of the LDP.

If the projections are anything close to correct, I think Koike becomes the next PM when a large anti-Abe contingent of the LDP that is currently within the party backs her for PM after the election. Then HP probably eventually merges into the LDP, with some pro-Abe members of the LDP possibly leaving to sit in opposition. It's possible if HP does not merge into the LDP that this breaks the LDP permanently, but either way there will be a "permanent majority" party (just a question of whether that party uses the name LDP or the name HP). If Koike fails to be elected PM this time, it's hard to see how the end result is anything other than HP fizzling.

[Tintrlvr]

LDP   31.2 (+0.4)
KP      3.8 (---)
JRP     1.3 (+0.3)
HP      4.8 (-0.6)
DP      1.6(-2.3)
CDP    4.4 (new)  
SDP    0.5 (-0.1)
JCP     2.7 (-0.6)

DP means ex-DP independents?

Japanese pollsters sometimes ask something like, "Of which party do you consider yourself a supporter?" It's not measuring vote intention, at least not directly, but rather something like partisan identification. So people can identify with defunct parties like the DP.

Of course, partisan identification definitely shifts with shifts in vote intention, especially in a relatively unpolarized electorate like Japan's, but these polls are generally less meaningful than polls that actually ask about vote intention (and tend to dramatically understate the opposition parties' support since many voters for opposition parties consider themselves nebulously anti-LDP rather than loyal to a specific party).

[Tintrlvr]

Also, do parties usually rise and fall this quickly in Japan?  It seems ridiculous how parties are just created so quickly.

In the recent years, yes. This started in 2012, after a period of relative stability. Most of the parties (and all the significant ones except LDP, Komeito and JCP) that contested the 2012 election do not exist anymore.

Right. The issue is that the LDP is not popular and has never really been popular since they lost the 2009 election (or, going back a bit further, since Abe's first term as PM in 2006). Although polls have shown their numbers quite high at times, this is typical for Japan and does not represent satisfaction with the party. However, the DPJ, which defeated the LDP in 2009, made itself look incompetent by, among other things, running through three PMs in as many years, and destroyed the credibility of the party with the Japanese people as an alternative to the LDP. So the LDP is unpopular, but no one really thinks there is a viable alternative. This results in many different parties popping up to try to carve out individual fiefdoms or exploit the unpopularity of the LDP. As there are so many different parties, none of them are alone seen as significant enough to be able to be a viable governing force, so there's no incentive for either voters or politicians to coalesce behind a single alternative to the LDP. So the chaos continues.

Before 2006, there was a relatively long period from 2000-2006 where the LDP was popular, and the party system slowly coalesced. But, in the 90s, the LDP was also unpopular, and there was similar chaos in the party system, with parties forming, merging, dividing and dissolving all the time.

This election feels a little bit like 1993, the first time the LDP lost power, that time to an eight-party anti-LDP coalition, and I do think the possibility of Koike putting together a crazy-quilt coalition (that includes some elements currently inside the LDP and maybe doesn't last very long) is being underestimated. But there's no denying that, at least in the polls, she appears to have peaked.

[Tintrlvr]

running through three PMs in as many years

LDP isn't much different, though: there were 3 LDP PMs between 2006 and 2009, and few Japanese PMs ever served longer than 3 years. Koizumi and post-2012 Abe are clear exceptions.

It was a real problem from the LDP in 2006-2009 how quickly they were burning through PMs, also, and definitely contributed to their defeat in 2009. Clearly the LDP has performed better during the Koizumi and Abe II years than either party did when PMs were dropping like flies.

But the bar was always higher for the DPJ than it would have been for the LDP because opposition supporters want something better than the LDP while LDP supporters are content to settle for the LDP. Also, the DPJ needed to prove their suitability to govern because they had never governed before; the LDP doesn't have to prove their suitability to govern because they are the party of government; as a result, they get to mess up a lot more and the sort of voters who are willing to settle for the LDP (see above) will stick with the LDP.

[Tintrlvr]

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.    

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?

Japanese are generally satisfied with their social support systems, and there is broad consensus on maintaining the status quo with only slight tweaks. Taxes are an area with more potential room for disagreement, but Japan has a relatively flat income distribution, Japan has a relatively progressive tax system for a developed country (top marginal rate income tax rate of 45%, has an estate tax up to 55%, no special treatment for dividends or capital gains, etc.), and there isn't much appetite for radical reconfigurations of the system one way or another.

[Tintrlvr]

Distribution of JCP and KP PR vote in 2014

JCP

I didn't know JCP had such strength on the south shore of Shikoku. Any idea why? Doesn't seem like a naturally JCP area (quite traditional).

[Tintrlvr]

Out of curiosity, where there any Japanese Christians elected? In particular, any Japanese Mormons? I know that before there was an election, there was Keiko Itokazu, a Japanese Mormon serving as an independent. And obviously, while there's only a small population of Japanese Christians in general, they have outsized influence, if I recall correctly.

Well, Aso Taro, who is a prominent rival to Abe Shinzo within the LDP and former and possible future PM, is a Catholic.

Itokazu Keiko is in the House of Councillors so was not up for reelection this time and is still in the legislature.

[Tintrlvr]

Out of curiosity, where there any Japanese Christians elected? In particular, any Japanese Mormons? I know that before there was an election, there was Keiko Itokazu, a Japanese Mormon serving as an independent. And obviously, while there's only a small population of Japanese Christians in general, they have outsized influence, if I recall correctly.

Well, Aso Taro, who is a prominent rival to Abe Shinzo within the LDP and former and possible future PM, is a Catholic.

Itokazu Keiko is in the House of Councillors so was not up for reelection this time and is still in the legislature.

Not to disagree with the spirit of your post, but I can't see this happening, given that Aso is almost 80.

It was chattered about seriously earlier this year when Abe was in free-fall. Now that Abe has won reelection, it's much less likely but hardly impossible, especially if things go sour for Abe quickly. The Japanese are not likely to turn down a potential PM for being middle-aged, after all