Will Karen Handel win reelection?

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss

[Holmes]

Depends on the Democratic candidate but she's vulnurable.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Heck yes, and it won't be nearly as close this time.

[SATW]

yes

[Coldstream]

Yes, and it's unlikely to be a target anyway.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Speaking of Handel, she recently claimed in a telephone town hall that "the Affordable Care Act is the single largest tax increase in my lifetime."  Politifact Georgia just rated this False.

[Lord Admirale]

Speaking of Handel, she recently claimed in a telephone town hall that "the Affordable Care Act is the single largest tax increase in my lifetime."  Politifact Georgia just rated this False.

Sadly this won't cost her reelection.

[Xing]

Yes, Safe R

[jamestroll]

Likely Republican for now.  But may be the last Republican who can hold the seat in a Democratic wave year.

[DrScholl]

Not if there is a wide enthusiasm gap for Republicans and a wave.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

NO FLAWLESS BEAUTIFUL OSSOFF WILL RISE AGAI...

Oh right.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Probably. No Democrats have announced yet, though you never know. There's a crowded primary going on in neighboring GA-07, which also swung hard against Republicans in 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Depends who runs and how big the wave is.  Honestly, I'd be fine with Osoff running again because...well...what's the harm?  And at least he'd be able to use all the money (I assume) he has left over.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Yes

[Young Conservative]

Yes and it'll be by more than 10 points.

[Maxwell]

not by a lot, but yes.

Knowing her political instincts, I suspect she tries for another promotion in 2022, which fails miserably.

[Brittain33]

I'm not sure why people think Handel's numbers are going to go up at the mid-terms. She had high turnout in the primaries and won narrowly back before Obamacare repeal had failed and Republican voters turned out. It was too early for them to turn their back on Trump. I don't imagine Dem turnout will be much lower for the midterm than for the special, while there is a good chance Republican turnout would be lower. I also don't see any voters switching from Ossoff to Handel.

Lean R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm not sure why people think Handel's numbers are going to go up at the mid-terms. She had high turnout in the primaries and won narrowly back before Obamacare repeal had failed and Republican voters turned out. It was too early for them to turn their back on Trump. I don't imagine Dem turnout will be much lower for the midterm than for the special, while there is a good chance Republican turnout would be lower. I also don't see any voters switching from Ossoff to Handel.

Lean R.

This, plus Handel doesn't strike me as someone who'd be a very strong incumbent.

[Brittain33]

Yes. The special election was their best shot at winning this district, and Republicans will actually turn out to vote in 2018.

I'm confused by the second clause here.

In the 2017 run-off, it was 260,000, much higher than a normal mid-term. Republicans credited Handel's win to all the solid R voters coming out for her.

Turnout in the district for the Congressional race in the 2012 General Election was 294,000. In the 2014 mid-term, it was 211,000.

[Nyvin]

If she wins it'll be close.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yes. The special election was their best shot at winning this district, and Republicans will actually turn out to vote in 2018.

I'm confused by the second clause here.

In the 2017 run-off, it was 260,000, much higher than a normal mid-term. Republicans credited Handel's win to all the solid R voters coming out for her.

Turnout in the district for the Congressional race in the 2012 General Election was 294,000. In the 2014 mid-term, it was 211,000.

Yes, turnout was high because it garnered the most attention of any special election race so far. Republican will not have that same advantage next year when this district is out of the headlines. Still I want to caution you using 2012 number with a district in Atlanta metro because we grow nearly 100k people each year and that district contains some of the most desired neighborhoods in the metro. If Handel win it will most likely mirror the runoff margin give or take a few.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Heck yes, and it won't be nearly as close this time.

[The Govanah Jake]

Most likely win and will do it by a bigger margin then last time too if she does.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'd say she starts out as the favorite, but as others have said, it's really going to depend on who her opponent is and what the national environment is like next fall. 

[Pericles]

It will be close. She's favored but I wouldn't rule out a loss.