Shooting Stars

[NewYorkExpress]

January 2019-Part Two

On January 6, California's State Assembly introduced legislation that would ban "discriminatory" political parties and candidates from appearing on the ballot in the state. The measure was written to specifically target the Republicans, according to the sponsor, Sebastian Ridley-Thomas, in a conversation with a staffer on a hot mike. These comments drew scorn and controversy on the right, both at Fox News, and from pundits like Ann Coulter, while a perverse sort of praise was attached to measure on the left, from pundits like Keith Olbermann and Bill Maher (though MSNBC, especially Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews were quick to criticize the measure as doing exactly what it intends to stop). The measure passed the Assembly 47-42 on Feburary 10, and the State Senate on February 12 by a 22-17 margin. Governor Villaraigosa vetoed the measure on February 14, citing concerns of the constitutionality of the measure, and that the proposed measure led to Democrats being no better than Republicans. An attempt to override the veto failed in the Assembly with 46 voting in favor of overriding and 42 voting against on February 19, well short of the two-thirds needed to override.

In Iraq the Kurds in the Northern portion of the country declared independence on January 7, following a referendum three days earlier in which 87% of participants supported independence for the Kurdish homeland in Iraq to 12% of participants who supported staying in Iraq, and 1% who supported joining either Turkey or Iran. (compared with Catalonia's referendum a month earlier, in which 90% of voters participated, 99% participated here). While Iraq seemed helpless, Turkey, and President Recep Tayip Erdogan acted, sending 175,000 troops into Northern Iraq to subdue the Kurds. After defeating the Peshmerga in Alqosh, Soran, and just east of Kirkuk, killing over 2,775 peshmerga and 3,059 civilians (against just 87 soldiers lost in the Turkish army) by January 20, Turkey annexed the area over Iraqi protests on January 24, claiming that Iraq had failed to maintain the stability of the country.

Back home the race for President grew more interesting, as President Trump signaled that he may not run for re-election at a speech to the Texas chapter of the NRA in Amarillo. Meanwhile, the Democratic field grew more interesting in and of itself, as Former Vice-President Joe Biden took himself out of the race in an statement to the press released on January 20. Meanwhile, Former California Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom entered the race, claiming that his loss in the race for Governor gave him more time to run. He had a reputation among activists for his stunt of marrying same-sex couples on the steps of San Francisco's City Hall. While some thought he'd do well in California, he ran the risk of being overshadowed by Kamala Harris, and no one knew when the Golden State's primary would be. In addition Newsom did not have another state that he would do well in.

Also jumping into the race (on the same day as Newsom, on January 23) was Former Secretary of Agriculture and Governor of Iowa, Tom Vilsack. Vilsack had run for President once before, during the 2008 cycle, dropping out in February 2007 amidst nightmarishly bad fundraising. He had the potential to lock down the Iowa caucuses, but he had little chance in any other state, and like in his previous run, was going to have trouble raising enough money to stay in until Iowa, let alone compete beyond that.

[NewYorkExpress]

February 2019-Part One

Following Turkey's invasion and annexation of Northern Iraq to subdue the rebelling Kurds, NATO met on February 3, and voted 27-2 to expel Turkey from the organization (Only, Turkey, who had been allowed to vote, and the United States voted against expulsion). Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan threatened to sell classified NATO documents and information still in Turkey to terrorist groups in retaliation, specifically naming ISIS, Al-Qaeda and Boko Haram. On February 10, NATO Military leaders (Claudio Graziano, Robert Brooks Brown, and Manfred Neilson) approved a military action to retrieve the information and documents (mostly stored in Ankara and Istanbul). This was achieved on February 24, with no loss of lives amongst the 10,000 NATO troops sent (While the Defending Turkish military lost 11 soliders, all in Istanbul). Erdogan was furious, but there was little he could do. What was particularly noteworthy about the operation, was that none of the soldiers were American. While Americans (like Brooks-Brown) were involved in the planning of the operation, they did not send troops to fight, and instead the majority of soldiers were British, French, German or Canadian.

Democrats held their first Presidential Debate at The Citadel on February 16, and was moderated by CNN's Wolf Blitzer. While most of the expected big names (who would have had to announce at the debate) did not appear, three candidates announced their campaigns at the debate, those candidates being Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro and Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker. While Tom Vilsack and Tom Daschle, who were leading amongst declared candidates got the toughest questions, almost everyone got their turn in the barrel. Daschle got vilified by Castro, Hickenlooper and Newsom over his vote for the Iraq War, while Vilsack got tripped up on a question on reforms to the primary calendar. Patrick didn't escape scrutiny either, as Castro, Hickenlooper, Parker and Newsom laid into him for links to Bain Capital, while Hickenlooper was tripped up on a question about North Korea. Castro was lambasted for being a do-nothing HUD Secretary by everyone else, while Parker largely escaped criticism. After the debate, polls showed that Patrick had won the debate according 28% of voters, while 24% said Parker won, and 13% said Newsom won.

On February 13, the Iowa Republican Party announced that after a one cycle absence the Iowa Straw Poll would return, citing that President already had a primary challenger, and the increasing likelihood of an open seat. Not to be outdone the Iowa Democratic Party announced they too would conduct a straw poll (also at the Iowa State Fair), citing the intense interest in the primary, and large field of candidates.

In non-political news, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 30-17 in Super Bowl VIII on February 3. After the game, Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid announced he was leaving to take the vacant New England Patriots position (where Bill Belichick) was retiring (Tom Brady, on the other hand, did not approve of Reid's hiring, and suggested he would retire after the 2020 season).

[NewYorkExpress]

February 2019-Part Two

Benjamin Netanyahu was forced to resign as Prime Minister of Israel and leader of the Likud Party on February 3, owing to an ongoing corruption investigation, which had led to an indictment recommendation by prosecutors in Jersualem. Likud quickly named their new leader as Tzipi Hotolevy, who was named interim Prime Minister, and a new General Election was set for Mid-May.

The U.S Supreme Court ruled 5-4 (Kennedy and Roberts joining Breyer and Kagan, while Sotomayor joined Gorsuch, Alito, Thomas and Sykes), that Major League Baseball did not have an anti-trust exemption in Pincus v. Manfred on February 15, having heard oral arguments in the case back in December. The case, in which Zynga CEO Mark Pincus attempted to get a new professional baseball league of the ground, with teams in Montreal, Indianapolis, Louisville, San Antonio, Quebec City, Nashville, Boise, Sacramento, Wichita, Omaha, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Columbus, Las Vegas and Oklahoma City. The Commissioner's office issued a cease-and-desist order, and Pinkus responded by suing to remove the leagues anti-trust exemption. In overturning the exemption, the Supreme Court overturned three different prior rulings (Federal Baseball Club v. National League, Toolson v. New York Yankees Inc. and Flood v. Kuhn), causing scorn from both baseball fans. Despite tradition that the senior justice (or Chief Justice if he/she is in the majority) writes the majority opinion, neither Clarence Thomas nor Samuel Alito felt particularly comfortable discussing baseball, and begged Roberts to assign the opinion to Sotomayor, who was an expert on baseball, having essentially settled the 1994-1995 MLB Players strike (Meanwhile Sykes, wrote a concurring opinion, saying that, yes the Court had gotten the issue wrong, something Sotomayor declined to say in her majority opinion, and also stated that because Congress had failed to correct the problem, the Court was obliged to act.

The Spanish Government of Mariano Rajoy fell on February 13 after members of Rajoy's party called for a no confidence after a leaked report from the IMF showing the Spanish Government was refusing to pay almost 409 million Euros in loans. Elections were set in both the House and Senate for Early June.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Yay for Netanyahu resigning, but Hotovely is a backbencher eith no chance to be elected leader

[NewYorkExpress]

Yay for Netanyahu resigning, but Hotovely is a backbencher eith no chance to be elected leader

At this point, while I haven't decided, Likud will likely lose seats in the Knesset, which may force Hotovely out as leader (besides, I picked her more as someone different than Netanyahu, than someone with an actual chance of being Leader of Likud/Prime Minister).

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory announced he would challenge President Trump in the primaries on December 16 in Chapel Hill (he did not say whether he step aside for Vice-President Pence, or any other Republican). McCrory had not been polled, but most expected him to be competitive in North Carolina and South Carolina, and at least get to 30% in Iowa.

Oh hell no!

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory announced he would challenge President Trump in the primaries on December 16 in Chapel Hill (he did not say whether he step aside for Vice-President Pence, or any other Republican). McCrory had not been polled, but most expected him to be competitive in North Carolina and South Carolina, and at least get to 30% in Iowa.

Oh hell no!

Oh no

[NewYorkExpress]

Former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory announced he would challenge President Trump in the primaries on December 16 in Chapel Hill (he did not say whether he step aside for Vice-President Pence, or any other Republican). McCrory had not been polled, but most expected him to be competitive in North Carolina and South Carolina, and at least get to 30% in Iowa.

Oh hell no!

Oh no

Talking to him or me?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory announced he would challenge President Trump in the primaries on December 16 in Chapel Hill (he did not say whether he step aside for Vice-President Pence, or any other Republican). McCrory had not been polled, but most expected him to be competitive in North Carolina and South Carolina, and at least get to 30% in Iowa.

Oh hell no!

Oh no

Talking to him or me?

I'm a girl, actually.

[NewYorkExpress]

Former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory announced he would challenge President Trump in the primaries on December 16 in Chapel Hill (he did not say whether he step aside for Vice-President Pence, or any other Republican). McCrory had not been polled, but most expected him to be competitive in North Carolina and South Carolina, and at least get to 30% in Iowa.

Oh hell no!

Oh no

Talking to him or me?

I'm a girl, actually.

Huh, the more you know. I assumed everyone on this forum was male.

Anyways to answer your both your comments, there's no guarantee Trump will even run for re-election, in which case McCrory will be far from the only Republican running.

[NewYorkExpress]

February 2019-Part Three/March 2019-Part One

On February 23, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev resigned on after being appointed by Putin to head the preparation team for a major cycling race- a race between Moscow and St, Petersburg, which was scheduled to take place between July 31 and August 8, 2019 and would be added to UCI cycling's World Tour Calendar. This move brought down the government, as Putin would be required to appoint a new Prime Minister (subject to approval by the Duma), and a hypothetical new cabinet (also subject to approval by Federation Council). On February 27, Putin nominated State Duma Deputy Chairwoman Irina Yarovaya as Prime Minister, and Yorovaya appointed the same ministers to the cabinet with all easily receiving approval (Only 23 people out of 450 voted against Yarovaya in the Duma, all from A Just Russia, who strongly opposed Putin, and supported Medvedev).

U.S Republicans, saw a second and third candidate launch campaigns against President Trump, as Former Ohio Governor John Kasich announced he would run in Columbus on March 1, while Former New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez announced she would run on March 9 from Albuquerque. Both had tough hills to climb. Analysts did not believe Kasich would repeat his 2016 trick of carrying Ohio in a competitive Presidential race, while Martinez would struggle with (some) white voters, and outside of New Mexico, which was no gimme, though she was favored, her best chances were in Arizona and maybe Texas...though she had a compelling backstory.

On March 18, however the Presidential race, as well as the slow march towards impeachment was uprooted, when President Trump announced he had reached a deal with Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority McConnell, that he would not run for re-election, and that Vice President Pence would not run, in exchange for his not being impeached and removed from office (and possibly Pence's as well, as some Democrats were openly talking about it). While Pence, and McConnell denied it, both Pelosi and a staffer to McConnell confirmed that a deal had been discussed and reached.

[NewYorkExpress]

March 2019-Part Two

The United Kingdom, and much of the English speaking world was plunged into mourning on March 15, when Queen Elizabeth II passed away at the age of 92 in her sleep. The funeral was attended by almost every world leader (with the exception of North Korea's Kim Jong-Un, and the entire Government of Zimbabwe) and was highlighted by a special performance of "Someone Like You" by Adele (which many critics found inappropriate-it seemed they'd forgotten Elton John's revised version of "Candle in the Wind" at Princess Diana's funeral 22 years prior). The real drama came in the aftermath, as Prince Charles promptly abdicated his position as heir presumptive (he didn't really want to be king), allowing his son William to become King, with the regal name William V.

In the U.S, the Democratic and Republican Parties set their rules for organizing their primary calendars. As before, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina were to be the first four states. Unlike in years past, the order of the four states was not set in stone (for example, Iowa and New Hampshire could go on the same day, and Nevada and Iowa could go on the same day), while the parties had different penalties for states that did not comply with the parties rules (as California and Maine were threatening to do) (Republicans penalized states by taking all of their delegates, while Democrats penalized states by taking all of their superdelegates).

Democrats held their second debate on March 18 at Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire, sponsored by CNN and moderated by Brooke Baldwin. Like the last debate, multiple candidates announced at the debate, in this case Senator Tammy Baldwin and Former Senator Russ Feingold. One candidate was not invited to the debate.-Annise Parker, largely because she polling at 0.2% in New Hampshire, and 0.9% nationally.  The debate largely focused on foreign policy, and Daschle once again came under fire for his vote for the Iraq War, this time from Feingold and Castro, while Newsom came under fire for an off the cuff comment in Ankeny a week earlier to reporters stating that he thought "nuking Pyongyang was the best way to deal with Kim Jong-Un" from everyone else, with Feingold explicitly calling him unfit for the Presidency. Feingold came under question from both the moderator and Daschle for not doing what he needed to do to win (he refused to take PAC money, which twice cost him against Ron Johnson, and was again refusing to take PAC money, or support a Super PAC). Polls showed that Deval Patrick, who had been steady throughout the debate won with 30% of respondents, followed by Baldwin with 17% and Feingold with 15%.

On March 22, Annise Parker, citing her poor polling numbers, and already being in severe debt (she had only raised $20,675, while spending $498,908 in just under a month, most of it on staff)announced in Houston she would suspend her campaign, and immediately endorsed Tammy Baldwin.

[Kamala]

He'd be William V

[NewYorkExpress]

He'd be William V

Thanks, I will fix that.

[NewYorkExpress]

March 2019-Part Three, lead up to first GOP debate

Republicans, seeing an opportunity to keep the White House without the polarizing presences of Trump and Pence (though Pence still denied involvement in any deal between Trump, McConnell and Pelosi) on the ticket, saw several new candidates enter in late March, early April, ahead of their first debate.

First up was former South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, who made his announcement on March 16 in Spartanburg, South Carolina. DeMint, at entry was considered a favorite in the South Carolina Primary (though he potentially had to share the stage with Nikki Haley), and was popular enough with religious conservatives to be a threat in Iowa as well. However, other than other southern states (like Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia), DeMint was not expected to be a factor in the race.

Second to enter by press release, on March 23, and making his third bid for the Oval Office, was Former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. Romney had near-universal name recognition, but he had many vulnerabilities, dating back to his 2008 and 2012 runs (if not earlier). He had been savaged by Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin and President Obama over his past at Bain Capital, he was widely considered a flip-flopper by many in both parties (being pro-abortion in his run against Ted Kennedy in 1994, and then anti-abortion in his 2008 and 2012 Presidential bids, among other things), his Mormon religion was a turnoff to evangelicals, just as it was in 2008 and 2012, and Obamacare had only got more anathema to Conservatives since 2012, making Romneycare, the similar plan Romney had signed in Massachusetts almost insurmountable in the primaries (while at the same time more helpful in the general election, should Romney get there).

Third, and last, was Former Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, who announced her campaign in Phoenix on April 2. Like Romney, Brewer would be one of the oldest candidates running (only more so, as she would be 76 on Inauguration Day 2021, which would make her the oldest candidate ever inaugurated if she won, beating President Trump's record by six years), and she had a major obstacle in a hypothetical general election, in her signing of SB1070 which could be construed as discriminatory against Latino/Latinas, despite it's overall targeting of illegal immigrants (it would, undoubtedly, help her in the primary, however). She also had the issue of a lack of states she could be competitive in, as other than Arizona, it was hard to envision a state that Brewer could win a primary or caucus in.

With these candidates in, Republicans held their first debate on April 5 at Franklin Pierce University in Rinedge, New Hampshire, sponsored by Fox News and moderated by Tomi Lahren and Charles Krauthammer. Despite the divisions in the party, it was civil debate, with the only major attacks aimed at Romney (already the polling leader in New Hampshire, Nevada and second nationally to hypothetical Marco Rubio candidacy) on Romneycare and his past at Bain Capital, and Susana Martinez who seemed to have done something to offend Pat McCrory, who kept taking potshots at her throughout the debate (needless to say, no one else could figure out why, and Brian Williams suggested on MSNBC after the debate that racism was the reason.

Also on April 5, both parties saw their first significant endorsements come of the table (although Annise Parker, being a prior entry in the race, endorsing Baldwin technically counted for Democrats), as Former Wisconsin Senator Herb Kohl endorsed Baldwin, while on the Republican side, George P. Bush (The Texas Land Commissioner, and son of Jeb Bush) endorsed Romney, while Former New York Governor George Pataki endorsed Kasich.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Could we have lists of the candidates running on both sides, abd maybe some polling?
Interesting TL!

[NewYorkExpress]

Could we have lists of the candidates running on both sides, abd maybe some polling?
Interesting TL!

Democrats currently running: Tom Daschle, John Hickenlooper, Deval Patrick, Julian Castro, Tammy Baldwin, Russ Feingold.

Democrats in exploratory committees (yes, they still exist) Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Sherrod Brown, Amy Klobuchar, Martin Heinrich, Kirsten Gillibrand.

Republicans currently running: Pat McCrory, Susana Martinez, Jim DeMint, John Kasich, Jan Brewer, Mitt Romney

Republicans in exploratory committees (again, they do still exist). Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Kelly Ayotte, Rob Portman, Greg Abbott, Susan Collins, Tom Cotton, Ben Sasse, Justin Amash and Nikki Haley.

Polls (All Polls conducted by either PPP (Democrats) or CNN/ORC (Republicans))

Democrats-Iowa

Undecided 20%
Tammy Baldwin 17%
Russ Feingold 16%
Amy Klobuchar 12%
Julian Castro 11%
Tom Daschle 7%
Deval Patrick 4%
John Hickenlooper 2%

Republicans: Iowa

Undecided/Other 31%
Jim DeMint 17%
Mitt Romney 15%
Jan Brewer 12%
Pat McCrory 9%
Susana Martinez 6%
John Kasich 2%

New Hampshire: Democrats

Undecided 50%
Deval Patrick 20%
Tammy Baldwin 9%
Russ Feingold 4%
John Hickenlooper 3%
Tom Daschle 3%
Julian Castro 3%

New Hampshire: Republicans

Mitt Romney 43%
Undecided 20%
John Kasich 9%
Susana Martinez 9%
Jan Brewer 7%
Pat McCrory 6%

Nevada: Democrats

Julian Castro 30%
Undecided 30%
Tammy Baldwin 10%
Russ Feingold 9%
Tom Daschle 9%
John Hickenlooper 8%
Deval Patrick 7%

Nevada: Republicans

Mitt Romney 32%
Susana Martinez 25%
Undecided 15%
Jim DeMint 10%
Pat McCrory 6%
John Kasich 4%

South Carolina: Democrats

Undecided 37%
Deval Patrick 21%
Tom Daschle 11%
Russ Feingold 10%
Tammy Baldwin 10%
Julian Castro 6%
John Hickenlooper 5%

South Carolina: Republicans

Jim DeMint 37%
Undecided 30%
Mitt Romney 15%
Pat McCrory 10%
Jan Brewer 10%
John Kasich 6%
Susana Martinez 4%