VA-UMW: Northam +5 (user search)
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  VA-UMW: Northam +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-UMW: Northam +5  (Read 1259 times)
Virginiá
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« on: September 18, 2017, 01:01:46 PM »

Honestly I'd argue these polls are good news for Gillespie and concerning for Northam. 61% approval for retaining confederate statues and (more or less) being down double digits among independents + having almost no crossover appeal is a very bad sign - it means you are incredibly reliant on turnout among your base to win, which arguably Perriello would have been stronger at.

It's a good thing that the Democratic base is fired up right now, with the GOP base being depressed. Perriello may have helped more, but Gillespie might as well be the GOP Northam in this regard. If this is really a base turnout election, then Gillespie should be the one worried. If you go by the recent spat of special elections, there is nothing to suggest that Republicans will be over-performing in this year's general elections.

At any rate, the governors race seems less exciting this time for numerous reasons. The HoD elections are way more interesting, imo. They are a much better barometer for 2018, and also a spot where Democrats seriously need to begin chipping away at GOP power if they ever want to do anything substantial in Virginia. The last thing they should want is a reverse Kentucky situation, where the GOP holds on in that chamber for decades past their expiration date.
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