VA-UMW: Northam +5

[UncleSam]

Uh I'll comment on both polls here since this one is getting more attention.

A few notes:
1. Hyra gets 3% in both, so his support is probably pretty consistent and not a confounding variable.
2. In both polls, Northam/Gillespie get the same amount of support from within their own party (90% in this poll, 91% in the other). The other does not mention crossover support but Gillespie is winning 5% of Dems in this poll vs. 2% of Republicans supporting Northam.
3. In both polls, Gillespie leads among independents by roughly low double digits. The margin is 9 in this poll and 14 in the other.

Overall, the only way to explain the net 5% difference in top line is that the two polls make different assumptions about the electorate breakdown (the 5-point net change among independents is worth 1 net point on the top line, max). So these polls really are telling a more consistent story of the race than they would appear to at a glance.

Honestly I'd argue these polls are good news for Gillespie and concerning for Northam. 61% approval for retaining confederate statues and (more or less) being down double digits among independents + having almost no crossover appeal is a very bad sign - it means you are incredibly reliant on turnout among your base to win, which arguably Perriello would have been stronger at.

All that being said, VA is a light blue state and Northam was in a significant financial hole after the primaries, so it is definitely possible that when he starts ramping up spending (I presume he hasn't been spending much? Anyone have any campaign finance totals available?) I'll bet that the undecided voters (of whom there are many, in both polls) will probably tilt towards Northam, given the sheer number of Democrats living in Virginia.

Also worth noting that neither poll mentioned Trump's approval. It is very possible if they had (instead of, say, confederate statues) the results would look a little more encouraging for Northam.

Still, I think this is Tilt D now. Gillespie is doing what a Republican has to do to win, and Northam is campaigning to not lose. I'll bet if Northam takes some chances he could open up a much safer lead but his campaign seems pretty disappointing so far (anyone more in the know who can comment on Northam's campaign thus far?). Predictably, it'll all come down to turnout - if Stewart voters largely stay home then all the encouraging polling in the world won't help Gillespie. Similarly, if Perriello voters stay home then it'll be very difficult (though not impossible) for Northam to win unless he improves among independents.

[UncleSam]

Thanks for posting the full details!

Anyway, it is immediately obvious where the two polls most likely differ: this poll's methodology asks for the youngest adult who is 18+ in the house, and does not report age bands. That's either intentional or a pretty big oversight, and again a bad sign for Northam. Very surprised that the polling is this close given this methodology, honestly.