Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 22, 2017, 03:26:46 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Torie)
| | |-+  Why did Howard Dean's scream destroy his campaign?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Why did Howard Dean's scream destroy his campaign?  (Read 606 times)
The Arizonan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1146


View Profile
« on: September 18, 2017, 03:36:45 pm »
Ignore

I'm curious because the scream wasn't even terrifying and is nothing compared to Donald Trump's shenanigans on the campaign trail.
Logged

"As a North Carolinian born & bred, I think this makes perfect sense. If you get arrested, a cop should have every right to go through your phone. If you are doing something illegal and get caught, then sucks to be you." - Risa in the comments section for an article about cellphones on Forbes.com, not that I agree with her.

The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1552


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -7.65

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2017, 05:38:38 pm »
Ignore

The standards were a little higher back then and when he screamed like he did the media went all over him and portrayed Dean as a parody which killed his campaign. It must suck too since just look at what Trump does in a minute on the campaign trail.
Logged

Here - http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=18844.1250
2020 Democratic Primary - Sherrod Brown, Tulsi Gabbard, Steve Bullock
TL: Strong as a Bull Moose! - A Alternate 1912 Election and Beyond
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=270726.0

Pericles
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1458
View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2017, 07:18:09 pm »
Ignore

It didn't. He came third in Iowa before the Scream. Now maybe he could have comeback in New Hampshire without it, but most likely it was just the nail in the coffin.
Logged

ProgressiveCanadian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2816
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2017, 11:10:19 pm »
Ignore

The better question is why did he drop all his principles to become a sell out after his run.
Logged

Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 988


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2017, 11:17:01 pm »
Ignore

I always thought it was jovial and funny, a way to rally the troops if you will. I don't get why it was seen as a bad thing.
Logged

The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1552


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -7.65

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2017, 09:52:02 am »
Ignore

The better question is why did he drop all his principles to become a sell out after his run.

^^
Logged

Here - http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=18844.1250
2020 Democratic Primary - Sherrod Brown, Tulsi Gabbard, Steve Bullock
TL: Strong as a Bull Moose! - A Alternate 1912 Election and Beyond
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=270726.0

60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED
ahugecat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 668


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2017, 12:34:39 pm »
Ignore

The scream looked worse than it was because of the audio too. For people in the room they barely heard or cared about it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3Meg3CEyUM
Logged
Compassion Fills the Void
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 80972
Ukraine


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2017, 08:23:06 am »
Ignore

It didn't. In the run up to Iowa, Dean had opened up a pretty solid and significant lead, not only in Iowa but getting ~40% in the national polls in a very crowded field. However as Iowa approached evidence indicated that he might be slipping there, and Kerry (who's campaign had previously collapsed and was being written off) and Edwards (who was always seen as a huge longshot) were unexpectedly gaining steam in the final weeks. So while speculation opened that Dean could lose Iowa, few expected him to lose as badly as he did coming in third. "The scream" then happened, but it wasn't really a big deal, Kerry was effectively anointed as the frontrunner, embraced by the establishment, and the damage to Dean also took out his lead in New Hampshire. His campaign effectively collapsed after that.

An interesting theory is that it actually hurt Edwards more than Dean, since the media attention on it caused less attention to Edwards' 2nd place finish.
Logged

Because "Wow, do the other options SUCK"
People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36990
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2017, 11:57:34 am »
Ignore

For me it was always my view that the Scream distracts people looking back from the real cause of his loss. The fact that he just lost Iowa badly.
Logged

People's Speaker of the Atlasian House of Representatives

Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21462


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2017, 12:02:50 pm »
Ignore

For me it was always my view that the Scream distracts people looking back from the real cause of his loss. The fact that he just lost Iowa badly.

Right. When you lose, the press becomes like pirhanas or sharks, looking to reinforce the narrative, and that's what happened with the scream. Dean lost Iowa because Kerry and Edwards "leaned in" and started co-opting his anti-war stance.
Logged

"Clinton failed, Bush failed, and Obama failed [to start a nuclear war]. I won't fail." - Donald J. Trump
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34621
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2017, 02:53:10 pm »
Ignore

One lesson from the 2004 Iowa race is that when you have a large, competitive field of candidates on the Democratic side, the Iowa caucus polls might not be that great because of the caucus system there, which requires candidates to pass a 15% viability threshold at each precinct in order for those votes to be allocated.

Not such a big deal in 2016, because there were only two candidates of consequence, and not even that big a deal in 2008, because with three candidates splitting support almost evenly, they all still managed to reach viability in most precincts.  But with four or more candidates with double digit support statewide (like in 2004) there are going to be a ton of precincts where one or more of them has a respectable share of support, yet doesn't reach viability, which means that second choices become hugely important, and there's no good way to predict how things will turn out from the polling.  And so there's a very good chance that one or more candidates is going to do way better or way worse than the expectations set by the polls.

And since the main reason why Iowa and NH get disproportionate attention is because of "momentum", and momentum seems to be set relative to some kind of baseline of people's expectations going into election day, that makes Iowa (potentially) more important than usual when there's a large field of candidates with double digit support, because there's a greater chance that the polls will be "wrong".  I'd say that's something to keep in mind in 2020, since we may again have a large field of candidates who are competitive.
Logged

My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines