Rate Gallatin County, Montana

[christian peralta]

Gallatin had consistently voted for the Republican nominee since 1960 until 2008 when Obama won it, it flipped to Romney in the next election and then flipped again with Clinton, though with a narrow margin

Year   Republican   Democratic   Third parties
2016   44.2% 23,802   45.1% 24,246   10.7% 5,771
2012   50.8% 24,358   45.8% 21,961   3.3% 1,589
2008   46.8% 22,578   50.1% 24,205   3.1% 1,489
2004   56.2% 22,392   41.2% 16,405   2.6% 1,045
2000   58.8% 18,833   31.2% 10,009   10.0% 3,198
1996   50.1% 14,559   37.7% 10,972   12.2% 3,547
1992   38.6% 11,109   33.1% 9,535   28.3% 8,135
1988   56.9% 13,214   41.1% 9,527   2.0% 464
1984   64.8% 15,643   33.8% 8,163   1.4% 334
1980   58.6% 12,738   26.5% 5,747   14.9% 3,241
1976   63.4% 11,062   35.6% 6,215   1.1% 183
1972   66.3% 10,663   31.7% 5,096   2.1% 329
1968   62.1% 7,433   31.9% 3,818   6.1% 727
1964   50.0% 5,621   49.8% 5,600   0.2% 27
1960   64.5% 6,870   35.3% 3,761   0.2% 21

[TML]

This county is home to Montana State University's main campus, so the influence of college students and faculty will make this county somewhat favorable to Democrats. Tilt D based on recent margins.

[ethan2226]

Pure Tossup. Could go either way depending on the candidates from both parties.

[ElectionsGuy]

In 2020, Lean D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R.

[CookieDamage]

Without a 3rd party candidate, it could easily go R.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

tossup normally, edge of lean/likely D if Bullock is the nominee

[MT Treasurer]

Likely D.

Gallatin County is likely gone for Republicans, especially in presidential races (and if it isn't already, it will be in 4-8 years). It's one of the fastest-growing counties in the state and I don't see Republicans winning there any time soon, especially Trump (who is an awful fit for the county). I know Stapleton and Rosendale did very well there, but keep in mind that Republicans have a relatively high floor due to the outlying conservative areas. Bozeman is an university town with a growing professional class and this area is experiencing a lot of population growth (and migration, also of people from other parts of the country) - Democrats should have enough votes to outvote the more conservative outlying rural/"semi-suburban" areas from now on IMO. Even Clinton of all people managed to win it, and Sanders would have won it by at least 6 points. Also, Quist really crushed GF there, it trended HARD left in the special election (the Democratic candidate was a good fit for the "latte liberals" (I can't think of a better term, sorry), but still...)

Remember, it wasn't just the only Romney/Clinton county in the state, it was the only county in Montana that swung and trended Democratic in 2016. The only way I could see Trump barely winning it is if the Democrats nominate an awful candidate again who loses the election AND a lot of right-leaning Johnson voters come home to Trump. But it's more likely that he loses it by 5+ points next time IMO.

[😥]

Tossup/Tilt D
If Bullock is nominee for President: Likely D
If Bullock is nominee for Senate: Lean/Likely D

[IceSpear]

Likely D.

Gallatin County is likely gone for Republicans, especially in presidential races (and if it isn't already, it will be in 4-8 years). It's one of the fastest-growing counties in the state and I don't see Republicans winning there any time soon, especially Trump (who is an awful fit for the county). I know Stapleton and Rosendale did very well there, but keep in mind that Republicans have a relatively high floor due to the outlying conservative areas. Bozeman is an university town with a growing professional class and this area is experiencing a lot of population growth (and migration, also of people from other parts of the country) - Democrats should have enough votes to outvote the more conservative outlying rural/"semi-suburban" areas from now on IMO. Even Clinton of all people managed to win it, and Sanders would have won it by at least 6 points. Also, Quist really crushed GF there, it trended HARD left in the special election (the Democratic candidate was a good fit for the "latte liberals" (I can't think of a better term, sorry), but still...)

Remember, it wasn't just the only Romney/Clinton county in the state, it was the only county in Montana that swung and trended Democratic in 2016. The only way I could see Trump barely winning it is if the Democrats nominate an awful candidate again who loses the election AND a lot of right-leaning Johnson voters come home to Trump. But it's more likely that he loses it by 5+ points next time IMO.

This. Listen to the guy from Montana, people.