The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[UWS]

Biden says he’ll decide on a presidential run by January:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/07/17/joe-biden-president-january-decision/793771002/

Harris has a book coming out in January:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/17/kamala-harris-book-deal-2020-727647

At last a precise date.

[Ferguson97]

You mean I have to wait until January to decide whether or not I can make a Biden 2020 shirt?

[gerritcole]

You mean I have to wait until January to decide whether or not I can make a Biden 2020 shirt?

He's gonna say no

[American2020]

The definitive ranking of 2020 Democrats

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/politics/2020-democrats-rankings/index.html

[GLPman]

The definitive ranking of 2020 Democrats

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/politics/2020-democrats-rankings/index.html

Wow, this ranking is a joke.

[Ferguson97]

The definitive ranking of 2020 Democrats

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/politics/2020-democrats-rankings/index.html

That might be the worst list I've ever seen. Eric Holder???

[NYSforKennedy2024]

The definitive ranking of 2020 Democrats

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/politics/2020-democrats-rankings/index.html

Mitch Landrieu.

Mitch. Landrieu.

[DevinM626]

The definitive ranking of 2020 Democrats

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/politics/2020-democrats-rankings/index.html

Love how this list ranks Brown and Bernie low because they're white guys then puts Biden at #1.

[Devils30]

It's early but if Biden didn't run, Bullock would definitely be a good type for his voters who value experience and competence. The lack of gravitas and executive appearance is a problem for Booker, Harris, Gillibrand quite honestly.

[brucejoel99]

It's early but if Biden didn't run, Bullock would definitely be a good type for his voters who value experience and competence. The lack of gravitas and executive appearance is a problem for Booker, Harris, Gillibrand quite honestly.

Ah yes, the person who was elected & re-elected to be the head of the executive branch of government of NJ's largest city for 7-&-a-1/2 years lacks competent executive experience.

[Pyro]

The definitive ranking of 2020 Democrats

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/politics/2020-democrats-rankings/index.html

This is based entirely off of those two (?) recent trash polls and is therefore also trash.

[Devils30]

Newark is not a state or really a major city nationally. It is a place with rampant corruption and a dream for oppo researchers. That said, Booker's biggest issue is his Wall St donations and legacy of using donations from rich people like Zuckerburg to fund Newark schools. It is this neoliberal philosophy that needs to go away for good. Using rich donors to fund schools is not progressive.

[CookieDamage]

Checks other. Written by Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten. It being trash is fully unsurprising.

[Mr. Morden]

Landrieu says he doesn't "intend" to run for president, but "never say never":

http://www.wdsu.com/article/former-nola-mayor-mitch-landrieu-says-no-2020-plans-never-say-never/22462734

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

The definitive ranking of 2020 Democrats

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/politics/2020-democrats-rankings/index.html

Gillibrand - 4
Sanders - 5
Holder - 6

What the hell.

[Spiffy]

Checks other. Written by Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten. It being trash is fully unsurprising.

I’ve generally liked Harry but he’s being really defensive about this objectively bad article.

[aaroncd107]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/2020-democrats-chat/index.html “Part 2” of their definitive ranking. They go over what they missed, and Chris makes a good case that Bullock is a hidden liberal. He was the first governor to order net neutrality be protected, banned “dark money” in MT elections post-Citizens United, passed an equal pay bill, refused to send the MT National Guard to the border, and fought as a private citizen for a minimum wage ballot measure.

[Pyro]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/2020-democrats-chat/index.html “Part 2” of their definitive ranking. They go over what they missed, and Chris makes a good case that Bullock is a hidden liberal. He was the first governor to order net neutrality be protected, banned “dark money” in MT elections post-Citizens United, passed an equal pay bill, refused to send the MT National Guard to the border, and fought as a private citizen for a minimum wage ballot measure.

They compared Bernie Sanders to Rick Santorum.
These people have absolutely no clue about politics.

[UWS]

Mitch Landrieu suggests Joe Biden 2020.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/mitch-landrieu-axe-files-cnntv/index.html

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/2020-democrats-chat/index.html “Part 2” of their definitive ranking. They go over what they missed, and Chris makes a good case that Bullock is a hidden liberal. He was the first governor to order net neutrality be protected, banned “dark money” in MT elections post-Citizens United, passed an equal pay bill, refused to send the MT National Guard to the border, and fought as a private citizen for a minimum wage ballot measure.

That's what makes Bullock such an appealing candidate. His ability to appeal to Montanans and yet remain a mostly mainstream liberal with actual accomplishments that could play very well in a general election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/2020-democrats-chat/index.html “Part 2” of their definitive ranking. They go over what they missed, and Chris makes a good case that Bullock is a hidden liberal. He was the first governor to order net neutrality be protected, banned “dark money” in MT elections post-Citizens United, passed an equal pay bill, refused to send the MT National Guard to the border, and fought as a private citizen for a minimum wage ballot measure.

That's what makes Bullock such an appealing candidate. His ability to appeal to Montanans and yet remain a mostly mainstream liberal with actual accomplishments that could play very well in a general election.

This! This This! I really hope the fossils Sanders and Warren sit out so he can have a path to carve towards the nomination.

[NevadanAtHeart]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/2020-democrats-chat/index.html “Part 2” of their definitive ranking. They go over what they missed, and Chris makes a good case that Bullock is a hidden liberal. He was the first governor to order net neutrality be protected, banned “dark money” in MT elections post-Citizens United, passed an equal pay bill, refused to send the MT National Guard to the border, and fought as a private citizen for a minimum wage ballot measure.

They compared Bernie Sanders to Rick Santorum.
These people have absolutely no clue about politics.

... I mean, you're forgetting to include the actual content of the comparison. Let's walk through it, yeah?

Harry says that, from reviewing the feedback of the article, he "think people think, 'Oh, Bernie was No. 2 last time and he's very popular,' so therefore he should be high up." Given that he's probably read more feedback than you, I'd wager that he probably has a better grasp on the gist of it too. In short, he thinks that people are reverting to previous results and popularity as a mental heuristic.

Then he says that performing well in the past is no indicator of the future. THIS is where he uses the example of Santorum. He performed well in 2012. He didn't perform well in 2016. These are also facts.

You're right in that there's more to the story than just finishing second. But that's literally his point. He thinks things are different than they were in 2016, so that heuristic people reverted to is useless. He then tells us what specifically is different this time around for Bernie. If you want to say that THAT is bunk, than go ahead. But don't discredit yourself by throwing out a strawman like "he used a comparison so this is wrong".

[Pyro]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/2020-democrats-chat/index.html “Part 2” of their definitive ranking. They go over what they missed, and Chris makes a good case that Bullock is a hidden liberal. He was the first governor to order net neutrality be protected, banned “dark money” in MT elections post-Citizens United, passed an equal pay bill, refused to send the MT National Guard to the border, and fought as a private citizen for a minimum wage ballot measure.

They compared Bernie Sanders to Rick Santorum.
These people have absolutely no clue about politics.

... I mean, you're forgetting to include the actual content of the comparison. Let's walk through it, yeah?

Harry says that, from reviewing the feedback of the article, he "thinks people think, 'Oh, Bernie was No. 2 last time and he's very popular,' so therefore he should be high up." Given that he's probably read more feedback than you, I'd wager that he probably has a better grasp on the gist of it too. In short, he thinks that people are reverting to previous results and popularity as a mental heuristic.

Then he says that performing well in the past is no indicator of the future. THIS is where he uses the example of Santorum. He performed well in 2012. He didn't perform well in 2016. These are also facts.

You're right in that there's more to the story than just finishing second. But that's literally his point. He thinks things are different than they were in 2016, so that heuristic people reverted to is useless. He then tells us what specifically is different this time around for Bernie. If you want to say that THAT is bunk, than go ahead. But don't discredit yourself by throwing out a strawman like "he used a comparison so this is wrong".

The comparison is disingenuous and these analysts are a joke. Bringing up Rick Santorum whatsoever is nonsensical and only serves to demonstrate how little these talking heads understand about the present state of affairs within the Democratic Party and in what direction the tides are shifting. Santorum did indeed arrive in second-place in his primary run and therefore certainly shares that lone fact with Bernie Sanders - however this is the end of their shared likeness.

Santorum was no leader. He ended up in second only after every other possible conservative alternative to the uninspiring, milquetoast Mitt Romney had been discredited or otherwise worn out. He garnered no significant base in 2016 precisely because he never possessed a serious base of his own to begin with, aside from wealthy conservative doners. On the other hand, Sanders performed extraordinarily well not due to his status as the Clinton alternative, but rather because he lent his voice to a young, progressive generation. Rather than depending on massive sums of donations to push the campaign forward, he allowed a movement to propel his candidacy forward. This is how a political base functions, and this is the type of base that does not disappear after four years.

[CookieDamage]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/2020-democrats-chat/index.html “Part 2” of their definitive ranking. They go over what they missed, and Chris makes a good case that Bullock is a hidden liberal. He was the first governor to order net neutrality be protected, banned “dark money” in MT elections post-Citizens United, passed an equal pay bill, refused to send the MT National Guard to the border, and fought as a private citizen for a minimum wage ballot measure.

They compared Bernie Sanders to Rick Santorum.
These people have absolutely no clue about politics.

... I mean, you're forgetting to include the actual content of the comparison. Let's walk through it, yeah?

Harry says that, from reviewing the feedback of the article, he "thinks people think, 'Oh, Bernie was No. 2 last time and he's very popular,' so therefore he should be high up." Given that he's probably read more feedback than you, I'd wager that he probably has a better grasp on the gist of it too. In short, he thinks that people are reverting to previous results and popularity as a mental heuristic.

Then he says that performing well in the past is no indicator of the future. THIS is where he uses the example of Santorum. He performed well in 2012. He didn't perform well in 2016. These are also facts.

You're right in that there's more to the story than just finishing second. But that's literally his point. He thinks things are different than they were in 2016, so that heuristic people reverted to is useless. He then tells us what specifically is different this time around for Bernie. If you want to say that THAT is bunk, than go ahead. But don't discredit yourself by throwing out a strawman like "he used a comparison so this is wrong".

The comparison is disingenuous and these analysts are a joke. Bringing up Rick Santorum whatsoever is nonsensical and only serves to demonstrate how little these talking heads understand about the present state of affairs within the Democratic Party and in what direction the tides are shifting. Santorum did indeed arrive in second-place in his primary run and therefore certainly shares that lone fact with Bernie Sanders - however this is the end of their shared likeness.

Santorum was no leader. He ended up in second only after every other possible conservative alternative to the uninspiring, milquetoast Mitt Romney had been discredited or otherwise worn out. He garnered no significant base in 2016 precisely because he never possessed a serious base of his own to begin with, aside from wealthy conservative doners. On the other hand, Sanders performed extraordinarily well not due to his status as the Clinton alternative, but rather because he lent his voice to a young, progressive generation. Rather than depending on massive sums of donations to push the campaign forward, he allowed a movement to propel his candidacy forward. This is how a political base functions, and this is the type of base that does not disappear after four years.

Because Hillary was only "pushed on" by massive sums of donations and not a diverse array of Democratic voters. It's like y'all are not in reality.

[Mr. Morden]

Bullock, Hickenlooper, and Inslee all said at the National Governors Association meeting this week that they’re thinking about running for president:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/21/politics/democrat-governors-2020/index.html

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