The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/406923-avenatti-on-possible-2020-presidential-run-im-getting-more-serious-by-the

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[Rookie Yinzer]

Avenatti:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/406923-avenatti-on-possible-2020-presidential-run-im-getting-more-serious-by-the

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Who is encouraging him to run?

Probably the same parents of Korean POWs who begged Trump for their children's remains in 2016, in other words no one.

[TheSaint250]

Avenatti:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/406923-avenatti-on-possible-2020-presidential-run-im-getting-more-serious-by-the

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"I'm a lawyer and I took gov in high school vote for me for prez"

[Horsemask]

So tired of this prick Avenatti.

[Spiffy]

Avenatti:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/406923-avenatti-on-possible-2020-presidential-run-im-getting-more-serious-by-the

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Who is encouraging him to run?

Honestly old people who watch cable news tend to love him in my experience. He could do well just based on that.

[Grassroots]

Avenatti:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/406923-avenatti-on-possible-2020-presidential-run-im-getting-more-serious-by-the

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Mwahaha, watch as democrats actually vote for this weirdo.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsSun/status/1041744855435640832

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1041769445864218624

[tosk]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsSun/status/1041744855435640832

oooOOoooh

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1041105798506655744

More from Patrick here:

https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2018/09/17/deval-patrick-2020-race

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[Mr. Morden]

Everyone's helping Rob Sand in Iowa:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/17/rob-sand-iowa-robert-mueller-826314

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[LAKISYLVANIA]

Biden is reportedly "convinced he can beat Trump", but remains uncertain about pulling the trigger:

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I wouldn't if I were Biden. He's literally one of the most obvious possibly candidates for a #MeToo scandal to occur during the race.

I also doubt he would gather much enthusiasm (among white non-educated, among millenials, among black voters, among hispanics, among females and among progressives), and he also has too much history and is too affiliated with the establihsment... He'll probably still win, but he's not a strong candidate, and Trump has a shot of beating him... I also believe compared to other democrats Biden will do worse in the rust belt. The democrats need a candidate who will win back the Rust Belt and win disenfranchised voters back, and Biden isn't a good option for that. Though Biden would do well in Arizona, North Carolina and Florida, because he'll probably win some independents / moderates and conservatives, and have a larger share of older people than other democrats.

[Mr. Morden]

Inslee:

https://q13fox.com/2018/09/18/governor-jay-inslee-wont-rule-out-2020-presidential-run/

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[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Senate voted 93-7 today to fund certain departments for all of fiscal 2019 and keep others operating through December 7. Voting to shut down the government instead were Sanders and 6 Republicans.

[Mr. Morden]

Merkley hiring in Iowa and NH:

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/eyeing-2020-jeff-merkeley-hires-iowa-new-hampshire-n910751

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McAuliffe not ruling anything out:

https://www.voanews.com/a/in-iowa-mcauliffe-says-he-s-not-ruling-out-2020-campaign/4577319.html

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[Coldstream]

I really like Merkley and he seems to be going for it, but I do wonder what his name recognition is like outside of Oregon? Even compared to people like Tim Ryan or Julian Castro he’s not exactly well known and if there is a crowded field surely that would count against him?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Some can use the race to raise their name recognition a bit. Most know they have a long shot of winning the presidency.

[Spiffy]

https://twitter.com/masondonovannh7/status/1042573557291732997?s=21

Interesting...

[tosk]

https://twitter.com/masondonovannh7/status/1042573557291732997?s=21

Interesting...

any reason he'd go to help other than presidential ambitions? personal connections or anything? Cuz this seems quite out of the blue

[Coldstream]

https://twitter.com/masondonovannh7/status/1042573557291732997?s=21

Interesting...

any reason he'd go to help other than presidential ambitions? personal connections or anything? Cuz this seems quite out of the blue

He is chair of the DPCC so maybe as part of that job he does go round the country to campaign for D candidates?

[Former Kentuckian]

Klobuchar wrote the forward to a new book of essays titled Nevertheless, We Persisted: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/563334/nevertheless-we-persisted-by-foreword-by-senator-amy-klobuchar/9781524771966/

And she was on The Daily Show to promote it: https://youtu.be/G2dbjJxoqME

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/masondonovannh7/status/1042573557291732997?s=21

Interesting...

any reason he'd go to help other than presidential ambitions? personal connections or anything? Cuz this seems quite out of the blue

He is chair of the DPCC so maybe as part of that job he does go round the country to campaign for D candidates?

Yeah, that makes more sense. Cicilline isn't running...though he wouldn't have made a bad candidate to primary Raimondo this year.

[NOVA Green]

I really like Merkley and he seems to be going for it, but I do wonder what his name recognition is like outside of Oregon? Even compared to people like Tim Ryan or Julian Castro he’s not exactly well known and if there is a crowded field surely that would count against him?

Good question, but at the same time one must question to what extent the "well known" factor actually plays a role when it comes not only to Democratic Party Nominations in recent years, but perhaps more significantly winning Democratic Presidential candidates....

How well known was Bill Clinton back in '92 when he ran for the nomination of the Democratic Party?

How well known was Barack Obama back in '08 when he ran for the nomination of the Democratic Party?

How well known were Presidential Candidates Gore, Kerry, and HRC when they ran prior to winning the Democratic nominations in '00/'04/'16 respectively and ended up losing Presidential Elections?

How well known as Bernie Sanders back in '16, who might well have actually out-performed HRC in a Trump vs Sanders matchup?

I don't believe that being relatively unknown over the past ~30 Years is actually a detriment at all for Democratic Presidential Candidates (Perhaps quite the opposite honestly) when it comes to successfully winning a GE PRES campaign.

Key problem for Merkley would be getting over the name recognition hump versus heavy weights on the Progressive Dem side of the Party, surviving the early primaries, closing the deal with Dem Primary voters and sympathetic Indies, to be able to compete successfully against DJT running for reelection running virtually unopposed (Maybe ).

I really don't think much of the current Democratic Party "crop" with name recognition (Warren, Booker, etc....) would likely perform well in a GE Environment.... Only exception might well be Biden....

[Coldstream]

I really like Merkley and he seems to be going for it, but I do wonder what his name recognition is like outside of Oregon? Even compared to people like Tim Ryan or Julian Castro he’s not exactly well known and if there is a crowded field surely that would count against him?

Good question, but at the same time one must question to what extent the "well known" factor actually plays a role when it comes not only to Democratic Party Nominations in recent years, but perhaps more significantly winning Democratic Presidential candidates....

How well known was Bill Clinton back in '92 when he ran for the nomination of the Democratic Party?

How well known was Barack Obama back in '08 when he ran for the nomination of the Democratic Party?

How well known were Presidential Candidates Gore, Kerry, and HRC when they ran prior to winning the Democratic nominations in '00/'04/'16 respectively and ended up losing Presidential Elections?

How well known as Bernie Sanders back in '16, who might well have actually out-performed HRC in a Trump vs Sanders matchup?

I don't believe that being relatively unknown over the past ~30 Years is actually a detriment at all for Democratic Presidential Candidates (Perhaps quite the opposite honestly) when it comes to successfully winning a GE PRES campaign.

Key problem for Merkley would be getting over the name recognition hump versus heavy weights on the Progressive Dem side of the Party, surviving the early primaries, closing the deal with Dem Primary voters and sympathetic Indies, to be able to compete successfully against DJT running for reelection running virtually unopposed (Maybe ).

I really don't think much of the current Democratic Party "crop" with name recognition (Warren, Booker, etc....) would likely perform well in a GE Environment.... Only exception might well be Biden....

Obama was surely more well known that Merkley? He was the keynote speaker at the convention 4 years earlier, and I was still in school in another country but I remember people talking about him in about 2006 as the potential first black president (though the British news did excessively cover the Obama vs Clinton race).

You’re right about Bill Clinton, but I guess I’d argue that primaries were different back then since there wasn’t social media so retail politics and going round talking to voters was more important - also there was only a field of about 5 (Tsongas, Brown, Harkin, Kerrey) and in 2020 it’s likely to be three times that. My concern is that if there’s an undercard debate people like Avenatti who are well known will get in to the top one whilst more viable candidates like Merkley, Bullock might get relegated if they don’t do more to increase their notoriety away from their home states.

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper was asked about his new PAC, and whether it means he's running for prez:

https://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2018/09/18/governor-john-hickenlooper-flirting-2020-bid-president/1354092002/

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