The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Tom Steyer will be on "State of the Union" on Sunday:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer asked about running for Senate against Feinstein:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/361846-steyer-dodges-questions-on-senate-run

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[NYSforKennedy2024]

May have been previously posted, but Tom Steyer officially launched a website for his campaign to impeach President Trump: https://www.needtoimpeach.com/

He seems like a highly likely 2020 candidate, or at least a player in the mix.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Jeff Merkley is promoting his Twitter, and got a new, casual-looking picture.
The specific promoted tweet says "I'm fighting for good-paying jobs. Having grown up in a blue-collar family, I know the economic struggles families face. Join me."
Seems like he's going for the economic angle?

[Mr. Morden]

On Facebook, Klobuchar posted a pic of herself as a kid:

https://www.facebook.com/amyklobuchar/photos/a.469152126190.251159.7606381190/10154759791216191/?type=3&theater



I'm not saying that means she's going to run for president.  I just thought it was a funny pic, and wasn't about to start a separate thread just to post it.

[The Other Castro]

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Brian Schatz has a pretty strong Twitter game.

[junior chįmp]

Socialist takeover imminent

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[American2020]

Bernie makes moves pointing to 2020 run.

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[Mr. Morden]

Bernie makes moves pointing to 2020 run.

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To clarify, that's a quote from this story:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/27/bernie-sanders-2020-elections-258160

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[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Bernie makes moves pointing to 2020 run.

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To clarify, that's a quote from this story:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/27/bernie-sanders-2020-elections-258160

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> Opens article
> Ctrl+F
>"black"
>0/0
>"african-american"
>0/0
>"south"
>0/0
>:facepalm:

That said, the addition of a Reid staffer is heartening. Maybe we won't screw up the relationship with the Culinary this time.

[Mr. Morden]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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[TheSaint250]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

[IceSpear]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

[Mr. Morden]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

What do you mean by "relevant"?  Will get about as many votes?  Will get about as much media coverage?

If Trump has one and only one challenger who's able to get on the primary ballot in more than a couple of states, then said challenger is the de facto non-Trump option in the primary, and will probably get a non-negligible number of votes, presumably many more than Gilmore got.  Now maybe that's only ~10%.  I don't know.  But that's still way more than Gilmore.

Now if there's a large field of challengers to Trump, then yeah, maybe Cuban is only getting ~1%.  But I don't think we're likely to get a slew of challengers.  Maybe one or two.

[IceSpear]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

What do you mean by "relevant"?  Will get about as many votes?  Will get about as much media coverage?

If Trump has one and only one challenger who's able to get on the primary ballot in more than a couple of states, then said challenger is the de facto non-Trump option in the primary, and will probably get a non-negligible number of votes, presumably many more than Gilmore got.  Now maybe that's only ~10%.  I don't know.  But that's still way more than Gilmore.

Now if there's a large field of challengers to Trump, then yeah, maybe Cuban is only getting ~1%.  But I don't think we're likely to get a slew of challengers.  Maybe one or two.

Cuban is a joke. Even the small chunk of anti-Trump Republicans and the even smaller chunk of those that will actually vote in the primary likely wouldn't vote for him.

[Mr. Morden]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

What do you mean by "relevant"?  Will get about as many votes?  Will get about as much media coverage?

If Trump has one and only one challenger who's able to get on the primary ballot in more than a couple of states, then said challenger is the de facto non-Trump option in the primary, and will probably get a non-negligible number of votes, presumably many more than Gilmore got.  Now maybe that's only ~10%.  I don't know.  But that's still way more than Gilmore.

Now if there's a large field of challengers to Trump, then yeah, maybe Cuban is only getting ~1%.  But I don't think we're likely to get a slew of challengers.  Maybe one or two.

Cuban is a joke. Even the small chunk of anti-Trump Republicans and the even smaller chunk of those that will actually vote in the primary likely wouldn't vote for him.

I don't know.  We'll see (maybe....not really convinced he's actually going to run).  If there's some discontentment with Trump, then I don't think it matters who the opponent is.  They would get a few %.  (Yes, Gilmore would too if he ran against Trump.  The difference being that if he was the only opponent to Trump, he'd get a fair amount of free media attention, and people would actually know who he was.)

[Former Kentuckian]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

What do you mean by "relevant"?  Will get about as many votes?  Will get about as much media coverage?

If Trump has one and only one challenger who's able to get on the primary ballot in more than a couple of states, then said challenger is the de facto non-Trump option in the primary, and will probably get a non-negligible number of votes, presumably many more than Gilmore got.  Now maybe that's only ~10%.  I don't know.  But that's still way more than Gilmore.

Now if there's a large field of challengers to Trump, then yeah, maybe Cuban is only getting ~1%.  But I don't think we're likely to get a slew of challengers.  Maybe one or two.

Cuban is a joke. Even the small chunk of anti-Trump Republicans and the even smaller chunk of those that will actually vote in the primary likely wouldn't vote for him.

I agree, he'd get smoked. People overestimate the number of anti-Trump Republicans. They overestimated them in the 2016 primary, they overestimated them in the 2016 general with whatever Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson were doing, and they're overestimating them now. And Mark Cuban as the flag-bearer of the NeverTrump movement? He's irrelevant. If you're going to go down fighting, at least try to get someone like John Kasich.

[History505]

On Facebook, Klobuchar posted a pic of herself as a kid:

https://www.facebook.com/amyklobuchar/photos/a.469152126190.251159.7606381190/10154759791216191/?type=3&theater



I'm not saying that means she's going to run for president.  I just thought it was a funny pic, and wasn't about to start a separate thread just to post it.

That's nice.

[History505]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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If he runs as an Independent, do you think he could be  a very serious 3rd party candidate since Ross Perot?

[Mr. Morden]

I agree, he'd get smoked. People overestimate the number of anti-Trump Republicans. They overestimated them in the 2016 primary...

I mean, the majority of Republicans voted for someone other than Trump in the 2016 primaries.  It's not like the entire party was in love with him.  So if you're talking about whether a challenger (even Cuban) could get more than a few % in a primary challenge, I don't see why not.  I'm not talking about even winning a single state.  I'm just talking about getting more than a few % (the original claim was "as relevant as Jim Gilmore was").

The polls so far have Trump getting between 50 and 70% in hypothetical primary matchups:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2020#National_polling

Of course, it's ridiculously early, but that gives you a sense of the fact that even now, with his "rock solid support among his own party", there's a double digit %age of Republicans open to other options.  So I don't see why Cuban cracking 10% is so unthinkable.

[IceSpear]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

What do you mean by "relevant"?  Will get about as many votes?  Will get about as much media coverage?

If Trump has one and only one challenger who's able to get on the primary ballot in more than a couple of states, then said challenger is the de facto non-Trump option in the primary, and will probably get a non-negligible number of votes, presumably many more than Gilmore got.  Now maybe that's only ~10%.  I don't know.  But that's still way more than Gilmore.

Now if there's a large field of challengers to Trump, then yeah, maybe Cuban is only getting ~1%.  But I don't think we're likely to get a slew of challengers.  Maybe one or two.

Cuban is a joke. Even the small chunk of anti-Trump Republicans and the even smaller chunk of those that will actually vote in the primary likely wouldn't vote for him.

I agree, he'd get smoked. People overestimate the number of anti-Trump Republicans. They overestimated them in the 2016 primary, they overestimated them in the 2016 general with whatever Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson were doing, and they're overestimating them now. And Mark Cuban as the flag-bearer of the NeverTrump movement? He's irrelevant. If you're going to go down fighting, at least try to get someone like John Kasich.

Yep. Trump won 90% of Republicans. Identical to McCain and only 3% less than Romney.

[Figueira]

Luis Gutierrez not ruling out 2020 presidential run

[Mr. Morden]

Biden says he's deciding on a 2020 "in the next calendar year":

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/11/28/joe-biden-tells-toronto-audience-that-only-those-who-can-devote-whole-heart-should-run-for-us-president.html

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[henster]

Luis Gutierrez not ruling out 2020 presidential run

Some of these people’s egos...