The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[UWS]

And who needs Libya, when he voted for the war in Iraq.

Nobody is going to care about that in 2020. 

Iraq is Vietnam re-incarnated. As long as Biden will be alive, his vote will haunt if he decides to run for Presidency. Anyone who voted for the war in Iraq will have a big disadvantage 2020, Hillary got hammered for that.

Besides as long the Middle East is a problem with terrorists groups n ISIS, Iraq War will be there. The war also killed many Americans & created trillions of $ of Debt. How do you recover from that kind of a blunder?

She did in 2008. I don't remember that coming up in 2016 but time will tell. I am starting to think Biden might not be built for the spotlight of being a frontrunner candidate.

In addition, Trump has himself supported the invasion of Iraq during an interview in 2002 so I don't think Biden's record on the Iraq War will be a counterbalance favoring Trump.

[UWS]

Mark Cuban was on Harvey Levin's Fox show tonight and said he would rather run as a Republican if he was forced to choose between the two parties.

Yeah, here is more info:

https://www.mediaite.com/uncategorized/mark-cuban-on-possibly-entering-2020-presidential-race-ill-probably-run-as-a-republican/

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If Cuban primaries Trump he will get nowhere. The door is more likely open for someone like Amash or (Rand) Paul...or maybe Cruz if things get really bad, not Cuban.

At least, Cuban would have made a sacrificial campaign since every president who got challenge among his own party (Ford, Carter and Bush Sr.) lost re-election.

[UWS]

I know this is a 2020 thread, but after tonight's CNN Town Hall about Gun Control, I'm quite sure Marco Rubio's political career is toast.

That is all.

He lost a debate to a teenager.

He couldn't just say the word "no."

I wish he had Florida's other seat. I wish that so much. I can't wait until this guy has a long retirement.

Given his seat is up in 2022, and a Democrat probably will win in 2020...I think Rubio wins re-election. But his national ambitions are toast.

Not so fast. If he wins re-election in 2022, he's gonna have more experience in 2024 and learned from his mistakes in 2016. And if Bob Corker retires and if the GOP keeps its Senate majority in 2018 (which I think they are favored to do due to the map), I guess Rubio will be chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship since Jim Risch would replace Corker as Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and so Rubio would succeed Risch as Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship because he's next to Risch in this committee.

[UWS]

Breaking News: Joe Biden still not running for president:

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2018/mar/06/realtimepolitics/joe-biden-hasnt-confirmed-he-running-president-202/

Big if true

Biden's going to do exactly what he did in 2016, which is leave everyone in suspense until the last possible minute (possibly days before the filing deadline for the New Hampshire Primary).

If he were to run in 2020 (which I hope he will), I don't think it would be wise to skip the Iowa caucuses.

[UWS]

Biden says he’ll decide on a presidential run by January:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/07/17/joe-biden-president-january-decision/793771002/

Harris has a book coming out in January:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/17/kamala-harris-book-deal-2020-727647

At last a precise date.

[UWS]

Mitch Landrieu suggests Joe Biden 2020.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/mitch-landrieu-axe-files-cnntv/index.html

[UWS]

Biden is reportedly "convinced he can beat Trump", but remains uncertain about pulling the trigger:

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I wouldn't if I were Biden. He's literally one of the most obvious possibly candidates for a #MeToo scandal to occur during the race.

I also doubt he would gather much enthusiasm (among white non-educated, among millenials, among black voters, among hispanics, among females and among progressives), and he also has too much history and is too affiliated with the establihsment... He'll probably still win, but he's not a strong candidate, and Trump has a shot of beating him... I also believe compared to other democrats Biden will do worse in the rust belt. The democrats need a candidate who will win back the Rust Belt and win disenfranchised voters back, and Biden isn't a good option for that. Though Biden would do well in Arizona, North Carolina and Florida, because he'll probably win some independents / moderates and conservatives, and have a larger share of older people than other democrats.

Actually, Biden would do better in the Rust Belt. He was born in Pennsylvania and so he has strong connections there. So I think he has a very decent shot in winning Pennsylvania just like he has for Michigan since it was under his watch as Vice-President that the Obama Administration put forward the auto bailout, which, according to some people, « saved » the auto industry, including in Detroit.

[UWS]

Now, as you can see on the Wikipedia page, they only kept the lists of individuals who have publicly expressed interest in running for President in 2020. The crowds for each party seem to be tightening.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2020

[UWS]

Biden will be heading to London ahead of a private fundraiser for the McCain Institute Tuesday and for a foreign policy speech in contrast of Trump and will.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/04/politics/biden-london-trip/index.html

So I think he's clearly positioning himself for a 2020 run.

[UWS]

Long NYT on Biden: he's undecided but intensely deliberating due to the lack of a clear field leader he could support. Private poll has him beloved in Iowa and up comfortably on Warren there. Obamaworld, including Michelle and Jarrett, is encouraging Patrick.

Honestly if Biden doesn't have Obamaworld support I don't see him running. What exactly would be his lane?

Considering Obamaworld prefered Clinton over him and now seems to have picked Patricks over him really makes it look like they have little trust in Biden's potential.

Biden had some pretty terrible gaffes in the 2008 Democratic primary. He said he had appeal to the South, because Delaware was a slave state. He also made a gaffe about Indian 7/11 clerks, and in 1988 he had the plagiarism scandal.

But all of that was before he became Vice-President.