The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[kyc0705]

I really like Garcetti, and will happily be part of that "<1%" figure he'll get in national polls before he inevitably drops out prior to the Iowa caucuses.

[kyc0705]

Garcetti made another trip to early caucus state Nevada this weekend…and also talked 2020 with the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/20/us/los-angeles-mayor-eric-garcetti-president.html

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I'm happy that he wants to do it, but sad that he'll almost certainly fail miserably. In any case, if we ever have a big city mayor who becomes a viable presidential contender in the near future, Los Angeles is far more likely to produce him or her than New York or Chicago.

[kyc0705]

Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti was interviewed on the new episode of The Atlantic's podcast. He talked about local government as a more immediate responder to "real" issues, mulled over the reputation of the LAPD, and most importantly, gave one of the few Truly Great Answers when asked what his favorite film about L.A. was. At the end of the chat, he was asked about running for president, and gave what the accompanying article termed an "artful dodge":

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(Source)

What a guuyyyy. (Am I the only Garcetti stan on this forum?)

[kyc0705]

Well, at the very least, in the wake of the acquisition, maybe Bob Iger won't run for president now, because his current position might allot him more power and wealth.

EDIT: I'm hearing rumors that he's planning on staying in his role way through 2021, anyway.

[kyc0705]

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brb, i'm flying back to my birth country that i haven't been in since i was a toddler and i'm going to run for office just by flashing my birth certificate around

[kyc0705]

Is there seriously a chance that Tom Steyer is announcing his 2020 candidacy on Monday?

What would the implications be of that? Would others jump in too? Would campaign season officially begin - at least, for people not participating in the midterms?

Answering your questions in order:
1. I don't know.
2. There would be none.
3. Not at any different rate than they would already.
4. No.

[kyc0705]

I saw Oprah's speech last night as well. I don't think she'll run for President, but holy wow that speech was magnificent. I had actual chills. She can command a room like no one else.

[kyc0705]

If Oprah ran, I would vote for her. Not sure about the primaries but hell, I would campaign my ass off for her.

I'm not saying I want her to run, nor do I think she will, but her case is far more convincing than Trump's ever was. He's a rich white guy who was born into wealth and just got richer. She was born into absolute poverty—a black woman growing up in the 1950s and '60s—and from tremendous personal hardship, was able to become a billionaire who's one of the most famous people in the entire country. Her story works much better.

I think if she did run, she'd be near-impossible to beat in the Democratic primaries from the second she announced her candidacy.

[kyc0705]

NBC News correspondent Peter Alexander tweets this:

https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/950509091721502720

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A Winfrey vs. Trump election might well be the very beginning of the end of democracy in America.

I have a super-piping-hot take about what an Oprah vs. Trump election would say about American society and culture, but I'll spare the forum all the eyerolls it would deservedly bring.

[kyc0705]

Kamala Harris on Rachel Maddow talking about DACA. Maddow asked Harris about 2020. Here's my transcript:

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I think after the interview, Maddow made some joke about how Harris gave an almost-perfect archetypical dodge to the "Are you running for President?" question. She's mastered it.

[kyc0705]

Kamala Harris on Rachel Maddow talking about DACA. Maddow asked Harris about 2020. Here's my transcript:

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I think after the interview, Maddow made some joke about how Harris gave an almost-perfect archetypical dodge to the "Are you running for President?" question. She's mastered it.

That’s because she’s running.

That was the implication of Maddow's comment, I would assume.

[kyc0705]

In this interview, O'Malley says that he'll "probably" decide on whether to run for president again "after the midterms".  (as if he hasn't already decided)

Hey, it takes a lot of time to figure out if you want to get 0.5% in the Iowa caucuses again!

[kyc0705]

Here’s the part of Holder’s interview on The Daily Show where he’s asked about 2020:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlIdM3ioAYc&t=12m38s

At about the 13:30 mark he says “I’m thinking about this.”

As usual, the rule applies that if your prospective campaign would go absolutely nowhere, you have nothing to lose by openly talking about it.

[kyc0705]

Charlie Baker spokesman asked about 2020:

link

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Honestly, I don't get Atlas's obsession with the word "focused". I understand that it's a word commonly used in clear non-denials, but it's also not always indicative of a non-denial. "Absolutely not" seems like a pretty telling indicator -- at least much more so than Atlas's favorite buzzword -- and imo it's almost disingenuous to point out the use of the F word as something that's suddenly important.

I do think this is most likely a sincere denial.  I just think it's funny how nearly every denial includes "focused", especially the obviously fake ones.

I don't know, I think "focus" is a very common weasel word in politics, even outside of the presidential sphere, and I don't believe much can be read into whether a statement does or does not contain it.

(I do appreciate you explaining why you always bold it, though: I've always been confused by that )

[kyc0705]

I wish these folks would learn not to ask in the present tense, but whatevs.

I really don't see how that would make a difference, since the interviewee can still turn it around with a non-denial denial:

Q. "Are you going to run for President?"
A. "I have no intention to run for President."

[kyc0705]

Tim Ryan is telling people he's running, and believes yogi will be his base along with blue-collar Midwesterners. Also told Third Way “You’re not going to make me hate somebody just because they’re rich. I want to be rich!”

Some relevant bits from that story:

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But perhaps the weirdest bit is the idea that yoga is going to propel Ryan to the White House:

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I'm still trying to figure out what the hell the "yoga vote" is supposed to refer to. Is it just a vaguely belittling term for middle-aged suburban white women? This week's 538 Slack chat was similarly baffled.

[kyc0705]

Smart move to try to get name out there. Focusing on money in politics and jobs might pay off when the rest of the candidates start overdoing it on race and gender identity.

They do focus on jobs, it's just that people like you can't stand to hear that we live amongst racism and bigotry and any candidate who mentions it is accused of "overdoing it" and peddling identity politics.

The sad truth is minority identity politics are always going to "look" and poll worse than WWC identity politics, just because white folks don't see the latter as identity politics.

It's a conveniently overlooked fact, isn't it? Basically any political rhetoric designed to connect with groups of voters is a form of "identity politics." It's a necessary facet of connecting with people in a political context, because it's more emotional and relevant to day-to-day life than just droll hypothetical policy assessments.

[kyc0705]

If Steve Bullock does end up running, he'll fill the primary voter niche for... fans of private prison contracts, I guess?

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(Source)

[kyc0705]

Boxing star Oscar De La Hoya is "seriously considering" a run for President.

https://www.boxingscene.com/de-la-hoya-very-serious-about-potential-run-president--131698

Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard on the Joe Rogan Podcast right now, reaching out to quite an interesting niche:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIb2lmHgd5s

Oscar De La Hoya? Really, Who's next Mike Tyson? Floyd Mayweather?

Oh, and did I mention De La Hoya has duel citizenship with Mexico that he'd have to give up?

I always get Oscar De La Hoya mixed up with Oscar de la Renta:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscar_de_la_Renta

Wait, if we're running fashion designers for President now, I propose Tommy Hilfiger, solely because he has one of the few New York penthouses that rivals Trump's in terms of combining extreme opulence and a complete lack of aesthetic appeal.

[kyc0705]

Somebody compared Michael Bloomberg to Jeb Bush: both have access to considerable financial resources, but they ultimately can't win a primary because they don't appeal to any significant sector of their respective parties.