The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

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At an event in Texas, Franken says “I don’t want to be president”:

http://lacrossetribune.com/news/franken-says-he-won-t-run-for-president-in/article_61fde4bb-ec86-5852-9104-7aa1610cc342.html

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good news for the GOP IMO

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Kasich is doing his best to fuel speculation that he's going to run for president again:

https://mic.com/articles/185241/on-meet-the-press-gov-john-kasich-seems-to-fuel-rumors-hes-running-for-president-in-2020

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aha yes i saw this. oh boy.

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Jimmy Carter talks about the necessity of diplomacy, to avoid war & conflict & criticizes Obama sharply saying Democrats must be held to a higher standard than Republicans. He also repeated both him & his wife voted for Sanders & had some criticism for Clinton.

I think a dovish foreign policy candidate will get his vote, not that it matters a whole lot today -

Saying that he did not think “there’s much hope now that Israelis will ever permit a two-state solution,” he knocked Obama on the Middle East: “He made some very wonderful statements, in my opinion, when he first got in office, and then he reneged on that.” Recalling that “we have 22 votes in our family and Obama got all 22 of them,” he complained that Obama had “refused” to talk to North Korea more, and then Carter lamented the fact that Obama joined in the bombing of Yemen, which Carter says is the most interesting place he’s ever been. (He even tried chewing khat, an addictive shrub that acts like amphetamines.)

Carter noted that in the primary, “We voted for Sanders.” “I don’t care if he gets rich or Clinton gets rich or whatever,” he said. “I don’t want to get into a bragging position; I’m not trying to do that. But I announced when I was defeated I was not going to be on corporate boards, I was not going to try to enrich myself with speeches. I was patterning my policy after Harry Truman.” When I compared the Clinton Foundation with the Carter Center, Carter noted: “Rosie and I put money in the Carter Center. We never take any out.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/21/opinion/sunday/jimmy-carter-lusts-trump-posting.html

carter 2020

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Al Sharpton asks McAuliffe if he’s running for prez in 2020:

http://freebeacon.com/politics/mcauliffe-hints-again-at-run-for-president-in-2020-lets-talk-after-i-get-out-of-here/

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And here’s more Cuban:

https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-daily-post/mark-cuban-president/

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The story also makes it sounds like he more definitively ruled out running as a Democrat, though it doesn’t give an exact quote.

was about to link the cuban article. shades of a perot-esque run?

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Hillary Clinton did a book signing in New Hampshire, her first trip there since the election:

http://www.wmur.com/article/hillary-clinton-returns-to-new-hampshire-for-book-signing/14093880

Vermin Supreme led a protest of the event:

http://nhpr.org/post/vermin-supreme-hosts-pony-parade-protest-outside-clinton-event-concord

our next president God willing

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Here’s this week’s #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/08/politics/2020-vision-deval-patrick-alabama/index.html

Most interesting quote:

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Also, O’Malley’s making yet another early primary state visit:

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patrick? definitely interesting. he has some real potential

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As I see it, Trump will not run for re-election. Vice President Pence, Still very popular among republicans and some moderates, will seek re-election. We will be running against either Sherrod Brown or Kirsten Gillibrand. As I see it today, it will be a very close race.

In what world will Trump not run for re-election if given the option?

if he thinks he'll lose. if he's not up to it, meaning health/age issues. it's not a far-fetched idea, but I understand your doubt.

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http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/house-democrats-are-talking-about-a-rep-tim-ryan-presidential-run/article/2643990

my boy tim!

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Jeff Flake on whether he'll run for president in 2020:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/366369-flake-not-ruling-out-presidential-bid

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Eh, he has nothing to lose, so I don't see why he wouldn't either challenge Trump in the primary or run as an indy in the general.

you think we'll see more than one challenger to Trump in the primary? Meaning potentially Kasich, Flake, Corker, and whoever else might want to.

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http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ohio-congressman-could-run-for-president-2020/sIRXsueKkRNItLmWHqudmI/

Found another tidbit on Tim Ryan

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Alright, here is my #hottake on some speculative candidates for 2020.

Republicans:
Declared:
Donald Trump
Jack Fellure (Minor)

Currently Speculated:
Steve Bannon
Bob Corker
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jeff Flake
John Kasich
Ben Sasse

Thoughts:
Not much to say about the GOP side of things, except the fact I think the majority of these candidates won't run. The most likely would have to be Steve Bannon, who has been locking horns with Trump recently, John Kasich, who has been vocally opposing Trump for a while now, and Carly Fiorina, who just wants to run another election campaign. Really, Fiorina is a wild card, and couldn't really take away any results from Trump. As for Kasich and Bannon, I could see Bannon take away some of Trump's radical base, but he would only win a few states in Cruz 2016 territory. As for Kasich, I believe he has a big shot at winning, but it'll be extremely tough the way the Republican base is right now.

Democrats:
Now, I'm gonna arrange Dems into a few different categories, ones who are likely, unlikely, and wild card candidates who may jump into the Democratic Primary. Comments will appear next to the candidates. Reportedly declined candidates will not be included in the list.

Declared:
John Delaney: Nothing to say about Atlas' meme man, he'll be lucky if he gets more than a couple votes

Likely Speculative Candidates:
Joe Biden: He has experience, he's well-liked among many national bases, he's the biggest star of the classic Democratic party, and he has the most polls shown kicking Trump's ass.
Martin O'Malley: O'Malley doesn't really have a chance, but if Biden or another stronger Democrat doesn't run him into the ground, he'll at least do better than he did in 2016.
Bernie Sanders: Still a star looked up to by many younger Democrats, Bernie possibly has another good run in him, but his age may prevent him from doing so.
Cory Booker: Booker would is a likely candidate whether any other strong Democrat runs or not. He's the compromise candidate between new age Progressive Democrats and Classic Obama-era Democrats.
Lincoln Chafee: Chafee is pathetic in every way. He'll run and withdraw almost immediately.
Terry McAuliffe: McAuliffe has a good chance of winning the election, as he's popular among many Democratic and Independent groups, but I don't see him winning the primary at all.
Jeff Merkley: Like McAuliffe, Merkley only has a shot of winning if the Democratic field is scarce, but if he could win, he could win big.

Unlikely:
Frederica Wilson: Her only claim to fame was a week-long Trump scandal. Her momentum died a long time ago.
Mitch Landrieu: Unknown Louisiana Mayor, doesn't have any name recognition nationally.
Eric Garcetti: Similar to Landrieu, but he's a little better known.
John Bel Edwards: Probably the least unlikely out of the unlikely candidates, but Bel Edwards will probably focus on a re-election campaign for Governor.
Eric Holder: Has some name recognition, but won't get far amongst more popular Democrats.
Bob Iger: Generic Trump-like Wall Street Democrat.
Tom Steyer: See: Bob Iger
Jason Kander: He has potential, but he should probably focus on getting elected to an office within his state, such as Governor, Representative, or primary McCaskill for another shot at the Senate.
Caroline Kennedy: Though she could be an appealing choice due to name recognition, she would be a relatively crippled candidate on Domestic issues without being elected to another position in the U.S. Government.
John Kerry: Less so but similarly to Bel Edwards, Kerry could be a viable candidate for running this election, but he's already been a failed nominee once, and I'm just not sure if he has it in him to run again.
Richard Blumenthal: One of the most unlikely candidates to run, will most likely stay in the Senate.
Tulsi Gabbard: Unpopular af.
Steve Bullock: Another unlikely candidate, I see him just running for another office within Montana.
Julian Castro: Not well known nationally.

Wildcard:
Deval Patrick: A popular Governor with the qualities of Cory Booker. Definitely a safe choice for Democrats, but I don't know how far he would get.
John Hickenlooper: He may be a popular Governor, but I'm unsure if he'd make it as far without the help of a KasichLooper ticket.
Kamala Harris: If her poll numbers go up within the Democratic Primary, she'll be one of the most likely candidates for the nomination
Amy Klobuchar: She's a strong Senator, but I don't know if she's ready to take the leap.

Other Thoughts:

• Some of the minor Democratic candidates are interesting, such as Greggory Figer (Nominee for MI Governor in 1998), and Harry Braun (Democratic nominee for U.S. Representative from Arizona in 1984 and 1986)
  
• The Libertarian party would become even more powerful if Bill Weld runs.

i'd agree except i'd move Bullock, Gabbard and Merkley to wildcard

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Dr. Paul talking about a challenger to Trump and libertarians future
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ron-paul-trump-may-be-vulnerable-to-2020-gop-primary-challenge/article/2644395

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Hillary is going to run:

No she is not. She has said as much and donors are already looking in other directions at this point. The woman is done. Though I know you'd like her to be running because she is the reddest of the red meat for the Republican base.

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This statement is factual. Your personal hate/dislike of her will not negate this.

I will not believe yet she is not running.  I remember “‘Tricky Dick’”. Saying the press would not have him
to kick him around anymore.  She is every bit as tricky.

Hillary always gained her importance by her connections to Bill.  If she had been on her own. She would never have gained any any recognition.  She certainly would not been elected a Senator from New York or never been a candidate for President.

I disagree. She wouldn't have had the same pull certainly, having a politician has a spouse helps your political moves especially when they're president ESPECIALLY when it's Bill Clinton. Hillary IMO would've been able to become prominent without Bill.

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see more on my fixation with tim ryan:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-rise-of-tim-ryan-the-rust-belt-democrat/article/2645735

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http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2018/01/20/gov-bullock-state-government-remains-open/1050857001/

good ole stevie is posturing a bit. making me pretty pumped, honestly.

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The Jerusalem Post claims that John Kerry, while in London, met with a “close associate” of Mahmoud Abbas, and urged the Palestinians to “stay strong in spirit and play for time”, since Trump won’t be president forever.  Also suggesting that he might run for president himself:

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Kerry-to-Abbas-confidante-Stay-strong-and-do-not-give-in-to-Trump-539643

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whaaaaat?? I hadn't really believed any of the mutterings prior

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Julian Castro really wants you to know that he's interested in the presidency with his "I have every interest in running" comment:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/juli-n-castro-test-2020-run-new-hampshire-young-democrats-n844936

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ahhhhh, dems could do a lot better.

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Gillibrand, who is up for re-election this year, pledges to serve a full term. This means she's not running until at least 2024.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2018/02/16/gillibrand-accepts-nomination-for-another-term-promises-to-serve-all-of-it-261836

unless she's lying?

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Tim Ryan's recent early primary state visits may or may not mean he's going to run for president.  But he is throwing cold water on the idea that he'll run for a leadership position in the House again any time soon:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/374706-former-pelosi-challenger-i-have-no-interest-in-running-for-leadership-again

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run tim run!

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Saw this in the Lipinski thread:

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The probability of him running is pretty close to 100% at this point, IMO.

In a way, I kinda wanna see him get the nomination and then lose to Trump just so I can make fun of the Bernie supporters who said he would've won in 2016.

yupppppp

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Steyer announces in a video that he's putting up $1 million to register high school students to vote ahead of the midterms:

https://twitter.com/TomSteyer/status/966835338009198592

Finally doing something productive.

honestly! this is a really good use of money, at least to me, and even though I probably wouldn't vote for him, it definitely endears me to him.

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Jeff Flake headed to New Hampshire:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/2018/02/27/jeff-flake-president-2020-arizona-senator-fuels-speculation-new-hampshire-event/378010002/

great...

Bullock headed to California to meet with big $ donors:

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/968631739013791744

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great!

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Hickenlooper is apparently visiting Iowa on April 3rd:

https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-announces-2018-future-ready-iowa-summit-registration-to-open-this-week

….and “holding meetings with veteran political players” about a presidential run:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_31728789/behind-scenes-colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-inches-toward

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On first reading, I missed one of the weirdest angles in this story....that Michael Bennet and Ken Salazar might also be considering presidential runs(!):

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damn! I didn't think John would really look at running, he'd be a damn good candidate.

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Here is a useful page keeping track of all the Dem. visits to Iowa:

https://iowastartingline.com/2020-watch/

I guess I had missed O'Malley's visit to Iowa last month.  Also missed a couple of those Swalwell visits.

is their anything significant about Swalwell other than his early state visits?

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Why is O'Malley even pretending he's not running for President again?