My way, way too early prediction for 2020. Bookmark it if you want...

[twenty42]

Everybody else is doing it, so I figured I'd join in.

I tried to combine trends, approval ratings, and randomness into this. Uniform swing doesn't exist in reality, so I didn't incorporate it into my map. Michigan was so close in 2016 that I think it will revert to the mean a la 2000 --> 2004 NH. If Dems take a big enough lead in AZ I can see Trump conceding it...he won't make the same mistakes Hillary did in NC and OH. NV likes Trump more than the nation does, and I think this could flip the state in a tight election. NH has such a small population and I think imcumbency could overcome a 3,000 vote deficit, and I think the incumbency advantage will flip ME-AL as well.

The big surprise on my map is DE. I think Trump takes it in 2020. Trump's approval rating in the state is higher than that of VA, CO, and NH, and don't forget it swung almost 8 points R in 2016. Before you laugh me off the board, remember 1996 AZ, 2008 IN, and 2016 PA, WI, MI. Don't color states in before the voters have their say.

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

295-243

My current prediction (especially if Harris is the nominee)

Sadly, I don't see ourselves taking the White House in 2020. The Berniebros would throw a tantrum if we didn't nominee one of their own. If we did nominate one of their own, they would crash and burn in the general.

[cvparty]

The big surprise on my map is DE. I think Trump takes it in 2020. Trump's approval rating in the state is higher than that of VA, CO, and NH, and don't forget it swung almost 8 points R in 2016. Before you laugh me off the board, remember 1996 AZ, 2008 IN, and 2016 PA, WI, MI. Don't color states in before the voters have their say.

? which polls are you comparing that prove Donald is more popular in Delaware than in New Hampshire? about it swinging ~8 points R, Joe Biden was the VP candidate in 2008 and 2012...and just because it happened in 2016 doesn’t mean it’s going to keep going lol

1996 AZ - Clinton lost it by 2 points in 1992, and did a lot better nationwide in 1996...not sure what you’re trying to prove
2008 IN - a huge Democratic swing nationwide, and Indiana is more elastic than Delaware
2016 PA, WI, MI - not really surprising in retrospect? they’ve never been more than slightly D leaning, a Republican always could’ve conceivably won them in the right circumstances

[MillennialModerate]

It's threads like these that made me wish you could gamble with this website.

Not a chance in hell this happens. Not a chance.

[adrac]

Gonna go with hard no on Delaware.

[twenty42]

and just because it happened in 2016 doesn’t mean it’s going to keep going lol

Lol...I find it funny that trends which favor Democrats are supposed to keep going forever (i.e. TX, NC, and GA eventually going D), but trends favoring Republicans are just one-off events.

2016 PA, WI, MI - not really surprising in retrospect? they’ve never been more than slightly D leaning, a Republican always could’ve conceivably won them in the right circumstances

I think this is true and I agree with you, but I don't really buy the retroactive determinations on this board that these three states were in play for Republicans all along. I'm not calling you out individually, but I think the majority of the Atlas population believed these states were rock solid D on November 7. Any talk of a Trump path to 270 going through the Blue Wall was laughed off, but then again so was any kind of Trump victory. I just find it annoying how so many posters claim to have seen a PA/MI/WI flip coming, yet they clearly didn't when you look at their pre-Election Day posts.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

and just because it happened in 2016 doesn’t mean it’s going to keep going lol

Lol...I find it funny that trends which favor Democrats are supposed to keep going forever (i.e. TX, NC, and GA eventually going D), but trends favoring Republicans are just one-off events.

I think that a lot of the trends for both parties in 2016 were one-off events.

For example:

TX, GA, and UT are states where I think there was a fluke in Democrat favor.
ME, NH, MN, IA, WI, and MI are states where I think there was a fluke in Republican favor.

[twenty42]

WI...states where I think there was a fluke in Republican favor.

No it wasn't. Wisconsin came within a percentage point of voting for George Bush in both 2000 and 2004.

Yep...and it voted to the right of the nation in 1992. I actually think Obama's two wins in Wisconsin were flukier than Trump's win in 2016. He was an unusually good fit for the state and pulled it more to the left of the nation than it normally is.

[Xing]

I don't see how Nevada votes to the right of Arizona. Also, Delaware isn't going Republican.

[tomhguy]

[Alabama_Indy10]

and just because it happened in 2016 doesn’t mean it’s going to keep going lol

Lol...I find it funny that trends which favor Democrats are supposed to keep going forever (i.e. TX, NC, and GA eventually going D), but trends favoring Republicans are just one-off events.

I think that a lot of the trends for both parties in 2016 were one-off events.

For example:

TX, GA, and UT are states where I think there was a fluke in Democrat favor.
ME, NH, MN, IA, WI, and MI are states where I think there was a fluke in Republican favor.

Not everything is a fluke.

[cvparty]

and just because it happened in 2016 doesn’t mean it’s going to keep going lol

Lol...I find it funny that trends which favor Democrats are supposed to keep going forever (i.e. TX, NC, and GA eventually going D), but trends favoring Republicans are just one-off events.

I never said that lol is it my avatar? I do think MN-MI-PA-WI are trending Republican. and I was talking about your Delaware prediction, it seems really random since there's really no good evidence suggesting it's going to trend R

[DPKdebator]

I predict that whatever party wins will get 300+ EV, there won't be any sort of nail-biting 270-268 result or anything like that.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

why are people predicting arizona to go D but wisconsin / pa / minnesota (??) to go R?

arizona has way more republicans than those 3 states. hillary was a good fit for arizona and a bad fit for wisconsin / pa / minnesota; trump was a bad fit for arizona and a good fit for wisconsin / pa / minnesota. the only way i could see arizona being to the left of those 3 states is if harris is the nominee, and even then i doubt it.

the mid west states that trump won were the first to have a major backlash in trump's approval / disapprovals because he's been mostly acting like a standard republican w/ a few of his populist immigration bents. arizona had less of a backlash because of this.

also georgia going more D is not a fluke. that state is going to become much more democrat fast. rural areas are dwindling, urban areas are getting more people, most young people are miniorities, it's getting a lot of the liberal northeastern transplants (whereas north carolina seems to be getting the more conservative northeastern transplants) and the young white people are becoming far less polarized in their vote. it should be a swing state by 2028 at the latest, unless the gop makes noticeable inroads among the black community.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump/Pence 350 EV 50.1%
Democrats 188 EV 48.2%

It could be reminiscent of one of those late 19th century Republican wins where they barely won the PV yet took the EC 2:1.

[mvd10]

[Person Man]

295-243

My current prediction (especially if Harris is the nominee)

Sadly, I don't see ourselves taking the White House in 2020. The Berniebros would throw a tantrum if we didn't nominee one of their own. If we did nominate one of their own, they would crash and burn in the general.

Maybe It goes 49D-48R-2L-1M in the popular vote? With either Florida or Pennsylvania being tge tipping point. Maybe he wins WI , NH, and MN by only a few thousand votes but PA and FL by like 2 or 3. Maybe GA and NC by the same amount, too.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

295-243

My current prediction (especially if Harris is the nominee)

Sadly, I don't see ourselves taking the White House in 2020. The Berniebros would throw a tantrum if we didn't nominee one of their own. If we did nominate one of their own, they would crash and burn in the general.

1. New Hampshire is never going to Trump. 2. Trump will not win Pennsylvania with over half of the vote. It's not happening. 3. Trump is very unpopular in New England so I don't know why you think he will win Maine. Especially without the 1st congressional district.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Seeing as his presidency is clearly an utter disaster, I cannot comprehend why people actually think he will win reelection. This time we have an actual record, and independent voters will not go for him again. He's also less popular amongst young people, whites, asians, and latinos now than before he became president.

Any Democrat candidate will win (minus maybe Warren) especially Kamala Harris.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The only way I see Trump winning re-election is if Kamala Harris or Cory Booker is the nominee.

[Canis]

The only way I see Trump winning re-election is if Kamala Harris or Cory Booker is the nominee.

I agree with Booker but Harris could maybe win if she chooses the right vp

[PoliticalJunkie23]

This makes me feel like such a newbie, but how do I make these maps?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The only way I see Trump losing re-election is if Kamala Harris or Cory Booker is the nominee.

FTFY

[Sadader]

Biden 2020 would probably mean bluer WI-MI-IA-MO, but would probably hurt the D’s sunbelt chances.

The most likely individual option is a Biden 50 state sweep - the Comey letter, but as Mueller announcing that Donny committed treason.

[Canis]

Biden 2020 would probably mean bluer WI-MI-IA-MO, but would probably hurt the D’s sunbelt chances.

The most likely individual option is a Biden 50 state sweep - the Comey letter, but as Mueller announcing that Donny committed treason.

Welcome to the forum!