German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

Polls are opening in 40 minutes, which is 8am local time (2am East Coast).

They will close at 6pm local time (noon on the East Coast).

A first projection will be made by ARD and ZDF TV stations right at 6pm, which is an exit-poll of voters leaving their precincts. About 15-30 minutes later, they will make first projections which already includes come counted precincts. A final result can be expected at midnight.

We'll likely get some turnout reports as well during the day.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the most important links to election day results sources, live streams, news media etc.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/cgi-bin/forum/show.cgi?tpc=40&post=81199#POST81199

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open !

[Tender Branson]

According to the Bundeswahlleiter page, they will publish 2pm turnout at ca. 3:30pm

[Yeahsayyeah]

In Leipzig 19.4% of eligible voters voted by mail (2013: 13.5%).
until 10 o'clock 8.2% voted (2013: 7.3%). Turnout in Leipzig was 67,9% last time (it was 71.5% in Germany). So turnout should be up in the end. Weather here is grey, but it's not raining. And in relation to the last days it is relatively warm. We were voting half past eight and did see some voters but no spectacular numbers. The first bulk comes normally between ten and twelfe.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In Leipzig 19.4% of eligible voters voted by mail (2013: 13.5%).
until 10 o'clock 8.2% voted (2013: 7.3%). Turnout in Leipzig was 67,9% last time (it was 71.5% in Germany). So turnout should be up in the end. Weather here is grey, but it's not raining. And in relation to the last days it is relatively warm. We were voting half past eight and did see some voters but no spectacular numbers. The first bulk comes normally between ten and twelfe.

Wow! My turnout prediction (81.5%) doesn't seem that off.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout until 12:00 up significantly in major Bavarian cities:

Munich: +13% (!)
Nürnberg: +3%
Augsburg: +6%
Regensburg: +6%
Würzburg: +2%

These numbers include postal ballots.

---

Berlin: +4% (not sure with or without postal ballots)

Hamburg: +2%

Bremen: +2%

Stuttgart: +0.5%

Potsdam: +4%

NRW (selected sample): +3%

Saxony-Anhalt: +4%

Saxony: no change

Thuriniga: -6.5% (!)

Lower Saxony: -1%

---

Some of these reports might include postal ballots, others not.

Link

Link

[Yeahsayyeah]

Saxony does not include postal ballots in their numbers.

In the city of Dresden, Mail voting is up by 16.9 to 22.9 per cent but today's voting seems to collapse a bit and is down (at twelve) from 25.8 to 21.6.

In Leipzig numbers for on-the-day voting mirror 2013, but as I said, mail ballots are up a lot.

[Tender Branson]

More turnout numbers for Baden-Württemberg (until noon):

Stuttgart: +4.3% with postal ballots

Freiburg: +6.8% with postal ballots

[jaichind]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

[President Johnson]

More turnout numbers for Baden-Württemberg (until noon):

Stuttgart: +4.3% with postal ballots

Freiburg: +6.8% with postal ballots

No surprise. Postal ballots are at a record high this time.

[Tender Branson]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

[President Johnson]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

Well, usually progressive parties benefit from higher turnout. Usually. This time it will help the AfD, which managed to mobilize plenty of non-voters in various state elections in last few years.

[jaichind]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

I was thinking of elections of 1998 2002 and 2005 where we had high turnout and SPD over-performed in all these 3 elections. 

[Tender Branson]

More turnout numbers:

Mainz (13.00): +5.4% (incl. postal voters)

Frankfurt (14.00): +6.3% (I guess with postal voters)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

I was thinking of elections of 1998 2002 and 2005 where we had high turnout and SPD over-performed in all these 3 elections. 

You're right. But that is history.
In all the Landtag elections in the last three years, the AfD availed itself of higher turnout.

[President Johnson]

According to Tagesschau, turnout in cities is much higher than in rural areas compared to 2013.

[TheSaint250]

Bloomberg has a thing: https://bloom.bg/2fIHhHQ

[jaichind]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

I was thinking of elections of 1998 2002 and 2005 where we had high turnout and SPD over-performed in all these 3 elections. 

You're right. But that is history.
In all the Landtag elections in the last three years, the AfD availed itself of higher turnout.

Of course.   I guess I was figuring a different dynamic between state an federal elections with different things at stake.  Also the high turnout are in urban areas which would indicate that it is more about SPD than AfD.   I have no idea why turnout is high.  It seems no matter what Germany will end up with Merkel.  I am surprised that that many marginal votes care about if it is going to be CDU/CSU-SPD of CDU/CSU-FDP or CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens.  

[Tender Branson]

According to Tagesschau, turnout in cities is much higher than in rural areas compared to 2013.

How exactly do they know this, when basically all we have are turnout reports from cities ?

[TheSaint250]

My feeling is that Merkel wants to continue the grand coalition. Assuming she does, is there any scenario where she would have to form one with the FDP? Possibly internal pressure from the party?

[Hydera]

According to Tagesschau, turnout in cities is much higher than in rural areas compared to 2013.

During the US election people were talking about how there was major increase in turnout in cities which was a sign that people were turning up to cast ballots againat Trump. In the end it meant nothing. So i could caution against this being a sign of anything.

[TheSaint250]

According to Tagesschau, turnout in cities is much higher than in rural areas compared to 2013.

During the US election people were talking about how there was major increase in turnout in cities which was a sign that people were turning up to cast ballots againat Trump. In the end it meant nothing. So i could caution against this being a sign of anything.

Well technically they still did turn out against Trump

[Tender Branson]

My feeling is that Merkel wants to continue the grand coalition. Assuming she does, is there any scenario where she would have to form one with the FDP? Possibly internal pressure from the party?

No, basically if the SPD is beaten down to 20% today. In that case, it would be suicidal for the SPD to enter another Grand Coalition. They would be better off in opposition and re-structure for 2021, when Merkel is likely calling it quits.

[Oryxslayer]

My feeling is that Merkel wants to continue the grand coalition. Assuming she does, is there any scenario where she would have to form one with the FDP? Possibly internal pressure from the party?

I personally think Jamaica is the most likely, largely because the SPD base/politicians won't go for another coalition. Merkel probably wants smaller coalition partners because, they are easier to dominate in the way she has done arguably since 2005. Back when we were polling the Union at 40%+, there was a debate over Greens or FDP, with the conclusion that Merkel probably prefers the greens, while the party probably prefers the FDP. Under Jamaica, both are satisfied.