German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[jaichind]

Berlin (dpa) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she wants to win back voters from the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is set to take seats in the German parliament for the first time.


Not clear  how she does this with a Jamaica coalition. Most likely the opposite will take place.  

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What will the green demand in the coalition talks?

Probably no upper limit for new refugees, Diesel ban, state funding of electric vehicles and class action.

What do you mean by "class action"?

Musterfeststellungsklage.
Class action is the only translation I found.

If several people want to sue a company they have to do it person by person.
By contrast, in the US several people can build a group and sue the company as one unit.

This issue has risen after the diesel scandal.

[Hnv1]

What will the green demand in the coalition talks?

Probably no upper limit for new refugees, Diesel ban, state funding of electric vehicles and class action.

Can't see Merkel chopping down the limit. The CSU will go mad

[Oryxslayer]

Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

There doesn't appear to be any results though....

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What will the green demand in the coalition talks?

Coal phase out and tougher actions on diesel/petrol engines I think. They also had a demand in regards to no refugee cap, but I assume CDU will play hardball on that particular issue.

[TheSaint250]

It seems like, for the SPD, this could be a sort of Liberal Democrat 2015 redux.  The SPD is making a good choice (I think) in becoming the opposition.

[TheSaint250]

I'm guessing FDP will demand Finance Ministry and Greens will demand something environmental, correct?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

There doesn't appear to be any results though....

Votes have to be counted, you know?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

There doesn't appear to be any results though....

It's like in the UK: Only after a district result as a whole has been officially approved it will be published.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

There doesn't appear to be any results though....

Votes have to be counted, you know?

But to be fair, a live result map like on CNN or New York Times is urgently needed in Europe.

[Tender Branson]

Official results should start to pop up here in the next hour:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2017/ergebnisse/ergebniseingaenge.html

From what I remember from 2013, the first ones came in at 20:00 ...

[TheSaint250]

interview with Weidel on Deutsche Welle English

[jaichind]

It interesting how the anti-AfD vote helped Greens more than Link. 

[mvd10]

Will there be exit polls/results with crosstabs?

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) --
Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc seen winning 33.2% of votes, according to the latest ARD projection.

SPD projected to win 20.8%
AfD projected to win 13.1%
FDP projected to win 10.4%
Greens projected to win 9.2%
Left projected to win 8.7%

[Tender Branson]

It seems Jaichind, Horus and myself had the best predictions:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=269855.25

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some people on twitter are saying that SPD just by going into opposition and turning more leftwing(idk how thats going to work considering Schulz has been SPD's most leftwing leader since pre-Schroder) will regain AfD voters just like Labour in the UK did with UKIP voters.

I think anyone suggesting that a loss of votes to the AfD is the problem is immediately resorting to inane clichés rather than the actual situation. Whether they swing left or right the main thing for the SPD is to be distinctive (because unless you're distinctive how on earth can you convince people that you're a credible alternative government?), which they were not in the 2005-09 Bundestag and which they were not in the 2013-17 Bundestag either.

[mileslunn]

Some people on twitter are saying that SPD just by going into opposition and turning more leftwing(idk how thats going to work considering Schulz has been SPD's most leftwing leader since pre-Schroder) will regain AfD voters just like Labour in the UK did with UKIP voters.

Spoiler alert Labour under Corbyn was able to gain UKIP voters by not just campaigning on inequality but also promising to end free movement and not reverse brexit. Its not as clear cut as they think.

I think it is probably more akin to Germany in 2013 where the SPD recovered slightly after being in opposition still agree being in opposition is not a total key to winning. I think the other problem the SPD faces is income inequality is quite serious in US and UK which Sanders and Corbyn could tap into, but in Germany it is not that bad so there is less appetite for a strong shift to the left.  Also in the case of Corbyn, most of the UKIP votes he picked up were previous Labour voters in fact there were some previous Labour voters who went UKIP and then Conservative, perfect examples of this is Birmingham suburbs and Stoke on Trent area where the swing over the past few elections to the Tories was quite large.  Also Corbyn got a lot of his new votes from younger voters who sat out previous elections whereas with turnout being higher in Germany there is less room for a youthquake.  That doesn't mean the SPD is dead by any means, but they have their challenges.  The biggest opportunity they probably have is assuming there is a Jamaica coalition, I think they could pick up a fair number of Green votes.

[TheSaint250]

A woman on Deutsche Welle trying to explain the Jamaica coalition: "German parties have colors"

Wow, really?

[TheSaint250]

It sounds like the Deutsche Welle people were sighing whenever the reactions from Le Pen and Wilders came in

[Shadows]

Like the UK prediction which I got right, I was pretty sure that CDU/CSU will lose votes & the polls aren't exactly right. I was also sure that all the smaller parties from Green to FDP to AfD will gain vote share & win seats.

But I had no idea that the AfD will do this well. I thought 9-10% will be their ceiling. 13% is truly fantastic for them & well beyond my expectations.

[TheSaint250]

there's a linke poster that says "I LI KE to move it move it"

[Tender Branson]

ARD and ZDF converging on some 76% turnout in their latest estimates (+4.5%).

[mvd10]

To be honest it's incredible that the AfD almost outperformed the PVV even though the PVV's ceiling is much higher than the AfD's.

[Helsinkian]

AfD was the most popular party among East German male voters:


https://twitter.com/ZDF/status/912000537335386112