German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[America Needs R'hllor]

Oh, no. Go Greens! I really want Linke to come last.

[jaichind]

I am watching the Deutsche Welle English live stream.  They should just rename themselves the anti-AfD/anti-Trump channel.  They spoke about large number of Trump advisers helping the AfD when there is no evidence of this.   If there were the US Democrats would be all over this.  I think what they mean to say is "some Alt-Right supports who also back Trump but without links to Trump seem to back AfD as well"

[Former President tack50]

With 403 out of 428 Gemeinden counted, AfD is still ahead of CDU in Saxony. Will they keep their narrow lead or will CDU eventually overtake them?

Anyways, the fact that AfD will manage to come out in first place in one state is amazing

https://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wpr_neu/pkg_s10_erg_lw.prc_erg_lw?p_bz_bzid=BW17&p_ebene=SN&p_ort=14

[Yeahsayyeah]

CDU has about 25000 votes more than AfD in Leipzig, and 2000 (sic) in Dresden. Should be enough for a narrow CDU "victory".

Actually the most right wing CDU state party lost the most, and the CSU lost bigly to the AfD. I don't think, that's a coincidence.

[jaichind]

CDU has about 25000 votes more than AfD in Leipzig, and 2000 (sic) in Dresden. Should be enough for a narrow CDU "victory".

Actually the most right wing CDU state party lost the most, and the CSU lost bigly to the AfD. I don't think, that's a coincidence.

Really? but 408 out of 424 municipalities in it is AfD 29.5 vs CDU 28.3.  Are you saying that the remaining 16 municipalities are pretty much Leipzig and Dresden where AdD will get crushed by CDU ?

[PetrSokol]

AfD has the first "grundsatzmandat". It won it in constituency Sachsische Schweiz-Osterzgebige with 37 %.

[Hydera]

That corner in Bavaria which was also where many asylum seekers entered Germany while crossing through europe has 15%+ for AfD in contrast to other parents of non-metropolitan Bavaria where its 10-14%.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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I would not call it crushed, but it's a small but significant lead in Leipzig, which is a seventh of the population, so I think it will be enough. And in some other that are not counted yet, AfD should also slightly underperform.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

AfD has the first "grundsatzmandat". It won it in constituency Sachsische Schweiz-Osterzgebige with 37 %.

You mean Direktmandat.

[Bumaye]

Looking at the result in Chemnitz, Saxony's third largest city where the AfD got 24,3% and is only 0,6% behind the CDU, I doubt that Dresden and Leipzig will make that much of a difference.

[PetrSokol]

It seems also Bautzen I. won by AfD candidate. The border region with Czech Republic is the stronghold for the Alternative.

[Yeahsayyeah]

http://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/bundestagswahlen/bundestagswahl-2017/wahlergebnis/#wk-2

Die Linke seems to win Leipzig II. And Leipzig is different to Dresden and especially Chemnitz for many reasons.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

http://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/bundestagswahlen/bundestagswahl-2017/wahlergebnis/#wk-2

Die Linke seems to win Leipzig II. And Leipzig is different to Dresden and especially Chemnitz for many reasons.

I wrote something like that in another post.
Dresden = right-wing
Leipzig = left-wing

[palandio]

That corner in Bavaria which was also where many asylum seekers entered Germany while crossing through europe has 15%+ for AfD in contrast to other parents of non-metropolitan Bavaria where its 10-14%.

Well, this might be a small part of the explanation. The bigger part of the explanation would be a significant part of the population that has been swinging over the last 130 years between CSU (and its predecessors), abstention (e.g. in 2013) and various populist, centrist and far-right outfits (Bavarian Peasants' League, NSDAP, Bavaria Party, The Republicans, Free Voters and now the AfD). And historically being dirt-poor, backwards and living with an inferiority complex.

[Bumaye]

To be honest I'm quite relieved right now seeing the results in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In my voting district (Schwerin) they only ended up 4th and overall they might even stay below their result from the state elections. The only district I was worried about to fall to the AfD (Vorpommern-Greifswald) has the CDU 7,7% ahead. The turnout is 6,2% higher then 4 years ago and Die PARTEI has crushed it's state election result from last year and almost doubled their numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, this might be a small part of the explanation. The bigger part of the explanation would be a significant part of the population that has been swinging over the last 130 years between CSU (and its predecessors), abstention (e.g. in 2013) and various populist, centrist and far-right outfits (Bavarian Peasants' League, NSDAP, Bavaria Party, The Republicans, Free Voters and now the AfD). And historically being dirt-poor, backwards and living with an inferiority complex.

A very useful post and will hopefully be informative to most reading the thread, but I fear the poster it was directed at cares only for Hot Takes.

[Bumaye]

It seems also Bautzen I. won by AfD candidate. The border region with Czech Republic is the stronghold for the Alternative.

 
  
I'm starting to see a pattern between AfD-strongholds and Crystal Meth users.  
  

[Yeahsayyeah]

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It's not THAT easy. There is a left-wing majority in the Dresden city parliament, for instance. But Dresden has always been more the city of the kings of Saxony, their nobles and servants. And it's part of the "valley of the clueless" that had no access to western television by geography.
Leipzig has always been more a center of commerce, trade, fabrication, science, the important trade fairs, and so it always some cosmopolitan streak and had not totally lost that until 1989.

Of course it was also hit by the stagnation and decay of the GDR and by the shock therapy afterwards.

Chemnitz is in essence just a hard hit big industrial town.

[_]

AFD won another Direktmandat in Görlitz with 32.4%

[jaichind]

As I look at the results come in I suspect that AfD will under-perform these numbers while Linke will over-perform these numbers. 

[jaichind]

The drop in CSU vote share in Bayern is quite astounding.  I wounder if this will get reflected in the in the 2018 Bayern state elections, even if CSU does better there than in Federal elections.

[jaichind]

[Kingpoleon]

Is a Jamaica coalition appearing most likely?

[Bumaye]

Is a Jamaica coalition appearing most likely?

 
   
It is literally the only viable option.

[Hydera]

Is a Jamaica coalition appearing most likely?

The Greens are divided, lots of voices that say that there needs to be a Jamaica coalition despite their ideological differences because to them Germany needs a government in place of SPD going into opposition, and a lot of others who disagree with CDU/FPD considering their ideological differences.

Then the CSU and FDP are saying they won't go into a coalition just yet with the Greens because they disagree on political issues.