German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 07:17:12 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18
Author Topic: German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread  (Read 29553 times)
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #375 on: September 25, 2017, 07:16:12 PM »

We now have a German equivalent for the term blue dog.

Judge Jens Maier, a newly-elected AfD member of parliament and a fierce opponent of Frauke Petry, who is often referred to as "Lil' Höcke", was asked how Petry won her direct seat if she is really as despised in her party as he claims.
He answered that her constituency is so friendly towards the AfD taht even a "blue broom" would have been elected there.
That reminds me so much of the etymology of the term blue dog. Grin

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,610
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #376 on: September 25, 2017, 07:36:46 PM »

That's a remarkably arrogant remark from a representative of such a new party, even if on this occasion it may be technically true.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,610
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #377 on: September 25, 2017, 07:38:17 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2017, 07:48:55 PM by Filuwaúrdjan »

I went a little mad with the keys because why the Hell not...








As always there's a risk of a few errors, while the nature of this sort of map means that minor inconsistencies are hard to entirely avoid. Who care tho.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #378 on: September 25, 2017, 07:41:50 PM »

Even 711 MPs is still less than the 950 in Italy's parliament (counting both chambers).

Then again it's worth noting that Germany will have a parliament only barely smaller than that of the entire European Union (751 MEPs). Sure, Germany is a large country but 711 MPs is too many IMO.

They should probably cap their number of MPs to 598 (the number of direct mandates*2), and elect the list MPs from a single at-large list. Not sure how that would affect the results though. Maybe a tiny bit less proportional but probably not enough to worry.

Then again according to the cube root rule Germany should only have like 435 seats so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

But if you did that you lose the pure proportionality rule.

Wouldn't it still be incredibly proportional though? I think 1/600 is probably enough to compensate. Or is there some weird scenario where 299 compensation MPs would not be enough for proportionality? I guess a party could say get all the direct seats and like 0.1% of the list vote, throwing off everything but that can also happen with the current system
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #379 on: September 25, 2017, 07:46:15 PM »


Wouldn't it still be incredibly proportional though? I think 1/600 is probably enough to compensate. Or is there some weird scenario where 299 compensation MPs would not be enough for proportionality? I guess a party could say get all the direct seats and like 0.1% of the list vote, throwing off everything but that can also happen with the current system

I think you need 709 to complete compensate.  CSU got no PR seats and won 46 direct mandates.  It seems the large number of seats was to accommodate CSU and not lose proportionality. 
Logged
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #380 on: September 26, 2017, 05:34:40 AM »

I went a little mad with the keys because why the Hell not...

As always there's a risk of a few errors, while the nature of this sort of map means that minor inconsistencies are hard to entirely avoid. Who care tho.
Al, do you think you could make such a map for Die Linke in only the former West, and smaller keys ? Because as such the Die Linke map doesn't say much there except Saarland, Bremen and Hamburg. But a big big thanks for these maps already, of course ! Smiley
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 787


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #381 on: September 26, 2017, 07:54:42 AM »

The compensation seats are not only because of the CSU. There have been actually 46 overhang seats.

CDU: 36
in Baden-Württemberg (11), Sachsen-Anhalt (4), Brandenburg (3), Sachsen (3), Hessen (3), Thüringen (3), Rheinland-Pfalz (3), Schleswig-Holstein (3), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2), Saarland (1)

CSU: 7

SPD: 3
in Hamburg (2) and Bremen (1)
Logged
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #382 on: September 26, 2017, 11:28:33 AM »

Thanks Al!
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #383 on: September 26, 2017, 11:43:18 AM »

The compensation seats are not only because of the CSU. There have been actually 46 overhang seats.

CDU: 36
in Baden-Württemberg (11), Sachsen-Anhalt (4), Brandenburg (3), Sachsen (3), Hessen (3), Thüringen (3), Rheinland-Pfalz (3), Schleswig-Holstein (3), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2), Saarland (1)

CSU: 7

SPD: 3
in Hamburg (2) and Bremen (1)

Right. The system was set up on the assumption that the two leading parties that would win most of the district seats would both be winning 40-ish% of the vote or more. Nowadays, when the leading parties are routinely in the 30s or 20s, they need to think about cutting down on the number of district seats or increasing the number of list seats (the latter being effectively what the overhang seats are, but if they want to reduce the variance in size of the legislature).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #384 on: September 26, 2017, 01:28:09 PM »

Turnout rankings:

78.3% Baden-Württemberg (+4.0%)
78.2% Bayern (8.1%)
77.6% Rheinland-Pfalz (+4.8%)
77.0% Hessen (+3.8%)
76.6% Saarland (+4.1%)
76.5% Schleswig-Holstein (+3.4%)
76.4% Niedersachsen (+3.0%)
75.9% Hamburg (+5.6%)
75.6% Berlin (+3.2%)
75.4% NRW (+3.0%)
75.4% Sachsen (+5.9%)
74.3% Thüringen (+6.1%)
73.7% Brandenburg (+5.3%)
70.9% Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (+5.6%)
70.7% Bremen (+1.9%)
68.1% Sachsen-Anhalt (+6.1%)

76.2% Germany (+4.6%)

---

Ranked by increase compared with 2013:

78.2% Bayern (8.1%)
74.3% Thüringen (+6.1%)
68.1% Sachsen-Anhalt (+6.1%)
75.4% Sachsen (+5.9%)
70.9% Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (+5.6%)
75.9% Hamburg (+5.6%)
73.7% Brandenburg (+5.3%)
77.6% Rheinland-Pfalz (+4.8%)
76.6% Saarland (+4.1%)
78.3% Baden-Württemberg (+4.0%)
77.0% Hessen (+3.8%)
76.5% Schleswig-Holstein (+3.4%)
75.6% Berlin (+3.2%)
76.4% Niedersachsen (+3.0%)
75.4% NRW (+3.0%)
70.7% Bremen (+1.9%)

76.2% Germany (+4.6%)

---

High turnout can be found in the wealthier western and southern states, who are also better educated and have a lower poverty rate.

Turnout increases above the German average are mostly in Eastern Germany + Bavaria and Hamburg. Eastern Germany's increase in turnout can be explained with the AfD surge and Bavaria's probably because it was the main entry point ("border state") during the migrant influx. Hamburg is more difficult to explain, but probably it was because people wanted to stop the AfD.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #385 on: September 26, 2017, 01:46:59 PM »

Interesting fact:

If you look at the map of the AfD/NPD strongholds (Saxony, Thüringen, Saxony-Anhalt and Eastern Bavaria close to the Czech Republic) and the Crystal Meth epidemic map - they are virtually identical.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #386 on: September 26, 2017, 01:50:58 PM »

Interesting fact:

If you look at the map of the AfD/NPD strongholds (Saxony, Thüringen, Saxony-Anhalt and Eastern Bavaria close to the Czech Republic) and the Crystal Meth epidemic map - they are virtually identical.



Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #387 on: September 26, 2017, 02:14:31 PM »

What is it with the SPD being so strong in the North of Hesse and southeast of Lower Saxony.  Any particular reason or is that where Schulz from there?
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #388 on: September 26, 2017, 02:51:08 PM »

What is it with the SPD being so strong in the North of Hesse and southeast of Lower Saxony.  Any particular reason or is that where Schulz from there?
No, Schulz' hometown Würselen (which he mentioned like 3000 times during the campaign Tongue) is in the extreme West of Germany, near Aachen.

CDU and SPD geographical voting patterns in Western Germany can still be explained to a large degree by history and tradition and therefore in the end often by religious denomination.
Until the foundation of the second German Empire there was a very vague spectrum of parties in the different German states which can be broadly described in terms of different shades of conservativism and liberalism and which were largely politicians' parties. The second German Empire saw the rise of two mass parties rooted in milieus of society. The first one was the Catholic Center Party which sought to represent Catholics in general. The second one was the SPD which sought to represent workers (particularly industrial workers) in general. Competition with the Center Party was the reason that the SPD was not able to grow a base in many catholic areas in the same way like in protestant areas. After WWI first the USPD and then the KPD split from the SPD. The Bavarian People's Party split from the Center. But their respective milieus (that of practicing Catholics and left-oriented workers respectively) remained strong and resilient. From 1930 on the majority of voters not affiliated with the Catholic or the red milieu went to the NSDAP, while the political Catholics and SPD/KPD (the latter two seen as communicating vessels) remained largely stable (with notable exceptions). After WWII the new super-denominational CDU/CSU expanded to the protestant areas of Western Germany to include protestant conservatives, but most of its strongest areas are still the old catholic Center strongholds. (The first chancellor of Western Germany, Konrad Adenauer (CDU), had been an important Center politician during the Weimar republic and most other CDU founding members had been in the Center as well.)

Northern Hesse and Southern Lower Saxony are majority protestant, somehow industrial and the SPD was able to get a foothold there already during the Empire and the Weimar republic.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #389 on: September 26, 2017, 03:56:08 PM »

The compensation seats are not only because of the CSU. There have been actually 46 overhang seats.

CDU: 36
in Baden-Württemberg (11), Sachsen-Anhalt (4), Brandenburg (3), Sachsen (3), Hessen (3), Thüringen (3), Rheinland-Pfalz (3), Schleswig-Holstein (3), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2), Saarland (1)

CSU: 7

SPD: 3
in Hamburg (2) and Bremen (1)

Sure, but the end result being that CSU has no PR seats makes it clear the gating factor was CSU over-performed the most in the district seats over its national vote share.
Logged
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #390 on: September 26, 2017, 08:00:15 PM »

There's one thing I don't understand: Why do the FDP and the Greens regularly overperform so heavily in Schleswig-Holstein? The Greens came in fourth (almost on Berlin levels) and the FDP came in third (only trailing BW narrowly). Why do you think this is? Is it only a Kubicki and Habeck effect, or do Schleswig-Holsteinians simply act politically like the Alaskans?

Furthermore, why is there an west-east divide? The north Sea cost and the Hamburg exurbs voting heavily FDP, while the Baltic coast voted the Greens. You can put those two stronghold together like two pieces of a puzzle. Any explanations?

And why is that Land so hostile territory towards the AfD, which already raised to the surfaced after the Landtag election in May, where they had the second-worst showing (5.9%) of all Landtag election (only Hesse in 2013 was even worse). Now they had the second-worst performance (8.2%) again, only beaten by Hamburg with 7.8%.

Logged
Angel of Death
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,411
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #391 on: September 27, 2017, 04:50:05 AM »

Given the possibility of overhang seats, I somewhat wonder why nobody ever tried that Italian trick of running two formally different parties for each vote, but I'm guessing the Constitutional Court and/or electorate wouldn't take too kindly to such shenanigans.
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 787


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #392 on: September 27, 2017, 05:15:31 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
It would not really work nowadays, because if you win a district and are not affiliated with a party that gets proportional representation, the list votes of the district winner's voters are declared obsolete and won't influence the proportional representation.
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #393 on: September 27, 2017, 05:31:07 AM »

Why is Saarland a Western stronghold for Die Linke?
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 787


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #394 on: September 27, 2017, 05:35:08 AM »

Why is Saarland a Western stronghold for Die Linke?
It's a declining former coal and steel industrial area. And It's the home of Oskar Lafontaine and the state he has been prime minister of from 1985 to 1998.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #395 on: September 27, 2017, 09:11:06 AM »

So whats the deal with the SPD winning those clusters of directmandat seats in rural parts of Niedersachsen and Hesse?

The red area in Southern Lower Saxony is where VW and Audi are located. Furthermore, Sigmar Gabriel's and Thomas Oppermann's constituencies lie in that area.
Audi? Seriously?! VW (Wolfsburg) is located to the north-eastern end of the mentioned area. The SPD strength in most of Southern Lower Saxony has nothing to do with it. Gabriel and particularly Oppermann are just two SPD politicians with few effect outside their own constituencies.
(Sorry if that sounds rude but I've read so much hot take analysis on the atlas that sometimes I can get impatient.)
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Yes, protestantism (or rather the absence [except for Hildesheim and a small part of the Eichsfeld] of historically SPD-impeding catholicism) plays a role in Northern Hesse, Southern Lower Saxony and neighboring parts of Westfalia and Lippe. One might of course ask why the areas north of Hannover are slightly less SPD-friendly. Well, they're flatter, traditionally less industrial and former strongholds of the (conservative) Guelf loyalists.
(And not everything needs to be compared to the USA. I our case the comparison is also inappropriate because Hannover, Braunschweig, Kassel and Salzgitter are even less conservative than the surrounding.)

Guelfs? As in the pro-Pope faction in Italian medieaval wars?
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #396 on: September 27, 2017, 10:11:09 AM »

Guelfs? As in the pro-Pope faction in Italian medieaval wars?
Guelfs as in House of Welf, the royal house of Hanover which was annexed by Prussia in 1866.

The name Guelfs for the pro-Pope faction stems from the medieval rivalry between the House of Waiblingen (also known as Staufen) and the House of Welf who at some point were the two most powerful dynasties in the whole Holy German Empire. When the House of Welf had lost the power struggle and been confined to Lower Saxony the name Guelfi was used to designate anyone opposed to the House of Waiblingen (which was pronounced Ghibellini by the Italians).
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #397 on: September 27, 2017, 11:16:29 AM »

It would be great to see a Die Linke swing map, probably it would be the inverse of their current map.
Logged
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #398 on: September 27, 2017, 02:20:48 PM »

It would be great to see a Die Linke swing map, probably it would be the inverse of their current map.

Hamburg: +3.380%
Bremen: +3.378%
Saarland: +2.9%
Bavaria: +2.3%
Hesse: +2.11%
Schleswig-Holstein: +2.10%
Lower Saxony: +1.9%
Baden-Württemberg: +1.6%
Rhineland-Palatinate: +1,37%
North Rhine-Westphalia: +1.34%
Berlin: +0.3%
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: -3.7%
Saxony: -3.9%
Brandenburg: -5.2%
Saxony-Anhalt: -6.1%
Thuringia: -6.5%
Logged
kireev
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 294


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #399 on: September 27, 2017, 03:41:20 PM »

It would be great to see a Die Linke swing map, probably it would be the inverse of their current map.

Enjoy Smiley
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.068 seconds with 12 queries.