German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[jimrtex]

There will be 709 seats in the Bundestag.

709

That means 111 overhang and balance seats.

111 is insane, that has to be a record, right?

What's the maximum possible number of overhang/balance seats? Like is there even a legal limit? If not, what is the largest theoretically possible size the bundestag can get?

One might be able to determine a practical maximum size under circumstances similar to the present (too not-so-big big parties and several smaller parties). It might not be possible to squeeze in additional smaller parties without some failing the 5% threshold.

So adopt a simple model where some CDU/CSU voters stay home, and assume that this is consistent across the country (percentage of CDU/CSU voters would decrease by a percentage, rather than percentage of total voters).

The CDU/CSU plurality can be calculated for each constituency, expressed as a percentage of the CDU/CSU vote in the district, and the districts arranged from smallest to largest plurality.

Then district by district reduce the CDU/CSU percentage such that they lose one additional direct seat, while losing some percentage of their overall popular vote. The real determinate is whether they lose direct seats faster than their popular vote declines or vice versa.

We could also do the inverse, increasing the CDU/CSU percentage so that they gain additional direct mandates.

An alternative analysis might vary the SPD percentage in a similar fashion.

The key factor in expanding the Bundestag is a relatively low share of the votes for CDU/CSU, but at the same time a massive lead relative to the SPD. If they were closer together, there would fewer CDU/CSU direct mandates.

[seb_pard]

It would be great to see a Die Linke swing map, probably it would be the inverse of their current map.

Enjoy

Beautiful, thanks!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that the keys are not identical to those for the list maps and in some cases are very different.

[Tintrlvr]

What's unusual about the big rural seat in Lower Saxony along the border between East and West where the Greens did so well? And what about that seat in NRW where the FDP had its best result?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's unusual about the big rural seat in Lower Saxony along the border between East and West where the Greens did so well? And what about that seat in NRW where the FDP had its best result?

1. That's Lüchow-Dannenberg - Lüneburg; Lüneburg is a university town and the surrounding countryside, the Wendland, has a certain Alternative undercurrent and is a traditional Green stronghold.

2. The FDP candidate in Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis was one Christian Lindner, who happens to be the party's leader.

[palandio]

1. That's Lüchow-Dannenberg - Lüneburg; Lüneburg is a university town and the surrounding countryside, the Wendland, has a certain Alternative undercurrent and is a traditional Green stronghold.

Yes. And one of the reasons (if not the main reason) for the alternative undercurrent is the nuclear waste disposal site in Gorleben.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With the aim of allowing certain patterns to be Seen with greater Clarity I do also present...

[JoeR]

But why does Petry do this? Because her ego was hurt?

Despite moving AfD more to the right after deposing Lucke she felt AfD was way too right wing this year and said she wanted to make AfD more palpable towards being allowed into coalitions by moderating a little back. But her party disagreed and stuck to its course.  Im guessing she waited until after the election to announce she was sitting as an independent because the leader leaving during the election campaign would of made the party lose support due to inner fighting.

I miss the Lucke Afd.

You felt it was fighting for something and just another ukip, front national etc. style party for the racists and populist.

Euroskepticism is maybe always going to be niche in Germany but it was nice for someone to demonstrate that Euroskepticism doesn't mean anti-immigration, doesn't mean protectionism, but that it means not accepting an unelected commission doing whatever the hell they like,  it means not accepting that you are relying on socialist Wallons and French to form trade deals.

Of course it didn't last. So back one goes to the Fdp - nice to have a rightish liberal party at least. Better choice than in the UK or US still from my perspective.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

2. The FDP candidate in Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis was one Christian Lindner, who happens to be the party's leader.

The dark golden district in Schleswig-Holstein is Wolfgang Kubicki's district, by the way.

[Beezer]

Anybody have a map of the second strongest party in each district according to the "Zweitstimme"?

[DavidB.]

Here you go:

[Hnv1]

Here you go:


Bonus map: increase of AfD vote compared to 2013. A BaWü-Hessen-DDR corridor stands out.

Have you got the swing for Offenbach?

[DavidB.]

Have you got the swing for Offenbach?

AfD 11.8% this time, 5.8% last time around, swing of 6%. One of the places where they overperformed in 2013 and underperformed this time.

https://www.welt.de/politik/bundestagswahl/article168296686/Ergebnis-und-Wahlsieger-im-Wahlkreis-185.html

[Beezer]

Thanks. The AfD's showing in the border regions of Bavaria of course also illustrates just how big a role the refugee crisis still plays 2 years on even though some commentators would have you believe that all of these challenges have been resolved.

[Tender Branson]

The dark AfD regions in southern Bavaria is the Kufstein border crossing, where many illegals streamed into the country and where the police still has border/traffic controls in place to screen for illegals.

A similar phenomenon was seen in southern Styria, which swung heavily to Norbert Hofer in the Presidential election - being a strong ÖVP area before.

Also, the area in BW looks like the Rhine river valley.

[palandio]

No.

David's bonus map is the 2013 map, not a 2013/2017 swing map.

Yes, it is true that Bavaria outside of Franconia and the Munich metro area has relatively strong AfD results, which is probably related to being the area of the main influx and the area that had to shoulder the first peaks of the emergency in 2015. But also to right-wing inclinations in general being historically more prevalent than in many other regions of Germany.

But the numbers just don't let you see e.g. the Kufstein border crossing:
Kiefersfelden had an AfD result of 14.35% (+9.06), completely normal for a Southern Bavarian rural town.
The constituency of Rosenheim had an AfD result of 13.86% (+8.90), again completely normal for Bavaria outside of Franconia and the Munich metro area.

[parochial boy]

Apologies if already asked, but does anyone have precinct level results for Hamburg?

[palandio]

Apologies if already asked, but does anyone have precinct level results for Hamburg?

https://www.bundestagswahl-hh.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahltyp=2#index.php?site=right/ergebnis&wahl=192&gebiet=1&typ=1&stimme=2

Even better: There's an interactive atlas:
http://statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2017_hh_btw/
First I thought the data were for districts only, but they have precinct level results (Wahlbezirke), too.

[parochial boy]

Apologies if already asked, but does anyone have precinct level results for Hamburg?

https://www.bundestagswahl-hh.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahltyp=2#index.php?site=right/ergebnis&wahl=192&gebiet=1&typ=1&stimme=2

Even better: There's an interactive atlas:
http://statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2017_hh_btw/
First I thought the data were for districts only, but they have precinct level results (Wahlbezirke), too.

awesome, thanks!

[DavidB.]

No.

David's bonus map is the 2013 map, not a 2013/2017 swing map.

Oh, sorry!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do we have any crosstabs in the exitpoll by gender, class, occupation, ethnicity etc?

[Hnv1]

Have you got the swing for Offenbach?

AfD 11.8% this time, 5.8% last time around, swing of 6%. One of the places where they overperformed in 2013 and underperformed this time.

https://www.welt.de/politik/bundestagswahl/article168296686/Ergebnis-und-Wahlsieger-im-Wahlkreis-185.html

Interesting. Passed there last week, looked like a complete dump

[Zanas]

With the aim of allowing certain patterns to be Seen with greater Clarity I do also present...

snip

You're such a peach!

[palandio]

No.

David's bonus map is the 2013 map, not a 2013/2017 swing map.

Oh, sorry!

No need to be sorry. It's just that we all are much better at quick over-interpretations than at double-checking. :-P

Do we have any crosstabs in the exitpoll by gender, class, occupation, ethnicity etc?

The official Representative electoral statistics (by gender and age) will probably be available by January 2018. Here is the one from 2013:
https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2013/ergebnisse/repraesentative-wahlstatistik.html

Infratest dimap for ARD:
Gender/education/bad economic situation/late deciders: http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/umfrage-werwas.shtml
Age: http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/umfrage-alter.shtml
Class/occupation: http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/umfrage-job.shtml

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF:
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2017-09-24-BT-DE.html?i=1

[Filuwaúrdjan]