German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[jaichind]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

[jaichind]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

I was thinking of elections of 1998 2002 and 2005 where we had high turnout and SPD over-performed in all these 3 elections. 

[jaichind]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

I was thinking of elections of 1998 2002 and 2005 where we had high turnout and SPD over-performed in all these 3 elections. 

You're right. But that is history.
In all the Landtag elections in the last three years, the AfD availed itself of higher turnout.

Of course.   I guess I was figuring a different dynamic between state an federal elections with different things at stake.  Also the high turnout are in urban areas which would indicate that it is more about SPD than AfD.   I have no idea why turnout is high.  It seems no matter what Germany will end up with Merkel.  I am surprised that that many marginal votes care about if it is going to be CDU/CSU-SPD of CDU/CSU-FDP or CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens.  

[jaichind]

Germany (Sachsen-Anhalt): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 36.2%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 37.2%
2017: 37.3%

Germany (Hamburg): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 48.9%
2017: 50.8%

Germany (Thuringia): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 55.6%
2017: 50.9%

Germany (Bremen): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.5%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Hesse): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.0%
2017: 45.9%

Okay, so who do we think is surging of the turnout? Its not SPD, or else Hamburg and Bremen would be higher then Thuringia. Its not AFD, or Meklenburg-Vorpommern would be higher. I'm personally leaning towards a Linke/Green/FDP surge...

I thought AfD was very strong in Sachsen-Anhalt so a turnout surge there might be AfD.

[jaichind]

All this anti-AfD talk might be positive for AfD.   Nixon once said "if you about a stop X movement, put you money on X"

[jaichind]

I always figured that CDU/CSU would underperform.  I was right.

[jaichind]

Berlin (dpa) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she wants to win back voters from the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is set to take seats in the German parliament for the first time.


Not clear  how she does this with a Jamaica coalition. Most likely the opposite will take place.  

[jaichind]

It interesting how the anti-AfD vote helped Greens more than Link. 

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) --
Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc seen winning 33.2% of votes, according to the latest ARD projection.

SPD projected to win 20.8%
AfD projected to win 13.1%
FDP projected to win 10.4%
Greens projected to win 9.2%
Left projected to win 8.7%

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
“We will lead talks very seriously but no one can say whether they will be successful,” Baden-Wuerttemberg’s Green premier, Winfried Kretschmann, tells ZDF television.

“They will be very hard, in any case. We are far apart on many issues”
Parties need to be prepared to compromise a lot
Greens will be constructive in talks, cannot promise that they will succeed

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc seen winning 32.9% of votes, according to the latest ARD projection.

SPD projected to win 20.8%
AfD projected to win 13.1%
FDP projected to win 10.5%
Greens projected to win 8.9%
Left projected to win 8.9%

[jaichind]

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-945.html

Seem to indicate a fairly large swing from Linke to AfD since 2013 and almost as large as the number of votes it got from SPD. 

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc seen winning 33.0% of votes, according to the latest ARD projection.
SPD projected to win 20.7%
AfD projected to win 13.0%
FDP projected to win 10.6%
Greens projected to win 8.9%
Left projected to win 9.0%

[jaichind]

Bloomberg says.  ARD indicates that AfD might come in first in Saxony.   Not sure if they mean Saxon or Saxony-Anhalt

[jaichind]

If CSU refuses to joining a coalition with Greens the would that leave us with no possible majority ?  In such a case will there be another election or will SPD join CSU/CSU "for the good of the country" ?

[jaichind]

AfD down to 12.8 according to ARD projection. 

[jaichind]

Jewish Groups Worldwide Alarmed by Far-right AfD Breakthrough in German Election

http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/1.813942

This headline does not make sense to me. Anyone looking at state election results since 2015 could see that something like this was coming.  So if there should be any alarm that should have been back in 2015.  The AfD result seems quite in line with the AfD state election results last couple of years.  Ditto various protests now by various Leftist groups over AfD results.  They should have seen this coming for last couple of years.

[jaichind]

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state sites

Sachsen-Anhalt
http://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/bt17/index.html

Sachsen
https://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wpr_neu/pkg_s10_erg_lw.prc_erg_lw?p_bz_bzid=BW17&p_ebene=SN&p_ort=14

Thüringen
http://www.wahlen.thueringen.de/datenbank/wahl1/wahl.asp?wahlart=BW&wJahr=2017&zeigeErg=Land

Berlin
https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BU2017/afspraes/uebersicht_gemeinde-11000000-berlin_gesamt.html

Brandenburg
https://www.wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/wahlen/BU2017/ergebnis/ergebLandBB.asp?sel1=2156&sel2=0661

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
https://wahlen.mvnet.de/dateien/atlanten/ergebnisse.2017/bundestagswahl.html

You got Bavaria? I want to see what that hyper turnout in Munich is pointing towards.

Yeah.  These links are awesome ...

[jaichind]

In retrospect it seems SPD should have formed a SPD-Green-Linke government in 2013.  The SPD fear of losing the middle ground if it forms an alliance with Linke was irrelevant since not forming such an alliance did not fetch it one Centrist vote relative to 2013.  It just lost votes to AfD, Greens, Linke, and FDP across the board. 

[jaichind]

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The Bavarian state site is pointless, because it has not more information than the Bundeswahlleiter.

München is here

https://wahlen-muenchen.de/ergebnisse/20170924bundestagswahl/

Thanks! Looks like that 80%+ turnout really didn't go in any other (nonAfD) direction. If it did, it was a green/FDP boost.

I was about post the same thing.  I really thought that the München turnout surge would help SPD but it was more about Greens and FDP. 

[jaichind]

I am watching the Deutsche Welle English live stream.  They should just rename themselves the anti-AfD/anti-Trump channel.  They spoke about large number of Trump advisers helping the AfD when there is no evidence of this.   If there were the US Democrats would be all over this.  I think what they mean to say is "some Alt-Right supports who also back Trump but without links to Trump seem to back AfD as well"

[jaichind]

CDU has about 25000 votes more than AfD in Leipzig, and 2000 (sic) in Dresden. Should be enough for a narrow CDU "victory".

Actually the most right wing CDU state party lost the most, and the CSU lost bigly to the AfD. I don't think, that's a coincidence.

Really? but 408 out of 424 municipalities in it is AfD 29.5 vs CDU 28.3.  Are you saying that the remaining 16 municipalities are pretty much Leipzig and Dresden where AdD will get crushed by CDU ?

[jaichind]

As I look at the results come in I suspect that AfD will under-perform these numbers while Linke will over-perform these numbers. 

[jaichind]

The drop in CSU vote share in Bayern is quite astounding.  I wounder if this will get reflected in the in the 2018 Bayern state elections, even if CSU does better there than in Federal elections.

[jaichind]